Predictions as statements and decisions

This paper is based on my invited talk at the 19th Annual Conference on Learning Theory (Pittsburgh, PA, June 24, 2006). In recent years COL T invited talks have tended to aim at establishing connections between the traditio nal concerns of the learning community and the work done by other communities (s uch as game theory, statistics, information theory, and optimization). F ollowing this tradition, I will argue that some ideas from the foundations of prob ability can be fruitfully applied in competitive on-line learning. In this paper I will use the following informal taxonomy of predictions (reminiscent of Shafer's [36], Figure 2, taxonomy of probabilities): D-predictions are mere Decisions. They can never be true or false but can be good or bad.