Wind Power Scenario Generation based on the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model and Generative Adversarial Network

--For conducting resource adequacy studies, we synthesize multiple long-term wind power scenarios of distributed wind farms simultaneously by using the spatio-temporal features: spatial and temporal correlation, waveforms, marginal and ramp rates distributions of waveform, power spectral densities, and statistical characteristics. Generating the spatial correlation in scenarios requires the design of common factors for neighboring wind farms and antithetical factors for distant wind farms. The generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) can extract the common factors through cross spectral density analysis, but it cannot closely imitate waveforms. The GAN can synthesize plausible samples representing the temporal correlation by verifying samples through a fake sample discriminator . T o combine the advantages of GDFM and GAN, we use the GAN to provide a filter that extracts dynamic factors with temporal information from the observation data, and we then apply this filter in the GDFM to represent both spatial and frequency correlations of plausible waveforms. Numerical tests on the combination of GDFM and GAN have demonstrated performance improvements over competing alternatives in synthesizing wind power scenarios from Australia, better realizing plausible statistical characteristics of actual wind power compared to alternatives such as the GDFM with a filter synthesized from distributions of actual dynamic filters and the GAN with direct synthesis without dynamic factors. ESOURCE adequacy means to maintain power system reliability by having sufficient capacity such that, even with failures or variability of resources, the probability of not being able to meet all load is sufficiently small [1]. System operators achieve resource adequacy of a power system by ensuring there is enough generation capacity [2]. In the case of intermittent energy resources, the effective load carrying capacity (ELCC) of the intermittent resource is the equivalent capacity of highly reliable generators that would result in the same probability of not being able to meet all load [3]. For example, the ELCC of wind power can be obtained by simulating power systems with long-term wind power scenarios with realistic ramping rates and marginal distributions [4]. Furthermore, the capacity factor and reserve margin contribution of wind power to the power system reliability can also be obtained by simulating a future power system by using realistic long-term wind power scenarios [5].