In IMP, a multi-component engineering system is subject to a risk of failure due to its components' damage condition.

Oshen's robotic sailboats are powered by the wind and the sun The UK's Royal Navy may return to the age of sail, with a new demonstration involving a flotilla of small, wind-propelled robot boats. Made by Oshen in Plymouth, UK, the vessels, known as C-Stars, are just 1.2 metres long and weigh around 40 kilos. Solar panels power navigation, communications and sensors, while a sail provides propulsion. Deployed as a constellation, the small vessels act as a wide-area sensor network. How the US military wants to use the world's largest aircraft "The simplest way of describing C-Stars is as self-deploying, station-keeping ocean buoys," says Oshen CEO Anahita Laverack .

We present an online method for guaranteeing calibration of quantile forecasts at multiple quantile levels simultaneously. A sequence of $α$-level quantile forecasts is calibrated if the forecasts are larger than the target value at an $α$-fraction of time steps. We introduce a lightweight method called Multi-Level Quantile Tracker (MultiQT) that wraps around any existing point or quantile forecaster to produce corrected forecasts guaranteed to achieve calibration, even against adversarial distribution shifts, while ensuring that the forecasts are ordered -- e.g., the 0.5-level quantile forecast is never larger than the 0.6-level forecast. Furthermore, the method comes with a no-regret guarantee that implies it will not worsen the performance of an existing forecaster, asymptotically, with respect to the quantile loss. In experiments, we find that MultiQT significantly improves the calibration of real forecasters in epidemic and energy forecasting problems.

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to modelling nonlinear alignments of time series based on latent shared information. We apply the method to the real-world problem of finding common structure in the sensor data of wind turbines introduced by the underlying latent and turbulent wind field. The proposed model allows for both arbitrary alignments of the inputs and non-parametric output warpings to transform the observations. This gives rise to multiple deep Gaussian process models connected via latent generating processes. We present an efficient variational approximation based on nested variational compression and show how the model can be used to extract shared information between dependent time series, recovering an interpretable functional decomposition of the learning problem. We show results for an artificial data set and real-world data of two wind turbines.

Contextual Bayesian optimization (CBO) is a powerful framework for sequential decision-making given side information, with important applications, e.g., in wind energy systems. In this setting, the learner receives context (e.g., weather conditions) at each round, and has to choose an action (e.g., turbine parameters). Standard algorithms assume no cost for switching their decisions at every round. However, in many practical applications, there is a cost associated with such changes, which should be minimized. We introduce the episodic CBO with movement costs problem and, based on the online learning approach for metrical task systems of Coester and Lee (2019), propose a novel randomized mirror descent algorithm that makes use of Gaussian Process confidence bounds. We compare its performance with the offline optimal sequence for each episode and provide rigorous regret guarantees. We further demonstrate our approach on the important real-world application of altitude optimization for Airborne Wind Energy Systems. In the presence of substantial movement costs, our algorithm consistently outperforms standard CBO algorithms.

Things aren't great, but there are a few positive signs, we promise. Climate news hasn't been great in 2025. Global greenhouse-gas emissions hit record highs (again). This year is set to be either the second or third warmest on record. Climate-fueled disasters like wildfires in California and flooding in Indonesia and Pakistan devastated communities and caused billions in damage. In addition to these worrying indicators of our continued contributions to climate change and their obvious effects, the world's largest economy has made a sharp U-turn on climate policy this year.

Explainable machine learning techniques have gained increasing attention in engineering applications, especially in aerospace design and analysis, where understanding how input variables influence data-driven models is essential. Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) are widely used for interpreting black-box models by showing the average effect of an input variable on the prediction. However, their global sensitivity metric can be misleading when strong interactions are present, as averaging tends to obscure interaction effects. To address this limitation, we propose a global sensitivity metric based on Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) curves. The method computes the expected feature importance across ICE curves, along with their standard deviation, to more effectively capture the influence of interactions. We provide a mathematical proof demonstrating that the PDP-based sensitivity is a lower bound of the proposed ICE-based metric under truncated orthogonal polynomial expansion. In addition, we introduce an ICE-based correlation value to quantify how interactions modify the relationship between inputs and the output. Comparative evaluations were performed on three cases: a 5-variable analytical function, a 5-variable wind-turbine fatigue problem, and a 9-variable airfoil aerodynamics case, where ICE-based sensitivity was benchmarked against PDP, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), and Sobol' indices. The results show that ICE-based feature importance provides richer insights than the traditional PDP-based approach, while visual interpretations from PDP, ICE, and SHAP complement one another by offering multiple perspectives.

Abstract--Orographic soaring can significantly extend the endurance of micro aerial vehicles (MA Vs), but circling behavior, arising from control conflicts between longitudinal and vertical axes, increases energy consumption and the risk of divergence. We propose a control switching method, named SAOS: Switched Control for Autonomous Orographic Soaring, which mitigates circling behavior by selectively controlling either the horizontal or vertical axis, effectively transforming the system from under-actuated to fully actuated during soaring. Additionally, the angle of attack is incorporated into the INDI controller to improve force estimation. Simulations with randomized initial positions and wind tunnel experiments on two MA Vs demonstrate that the SAOS improves position convergence, reduces throttle usage, and mitigates roll oscillations caused by pitch-roll coupling. These improvements enhance energy efficiency and flight stability in constrained soaring environments. The flight endurance of micro air vehicles (MA Vs) significantly constrains operational capabilities, limiting the scope of missions they can perform [1], [2]. This limitation is not solely due to inherently short flight durations, but also because take-off and landing procedures typically demand substantial time, energy, effort, and space. One potential solution to this problem lies in the advancement of battery technology, which could lead to improved efficiency. However, progress in this area has been relatively slow [3], [4]. Consequently, researchers have been exploring alternative solutions, such as using energy sources with higher energy densities or enabling mid-air refueling or recharging [5], [6]. Nevertheless, these approaches require considerable investment in hardware and system infrastructure, and often necessitate larger, heavier platforms--undermining the fundamental advantage of MA Vs being small. An alternative approach is to exploit soaring, a flight technique widely employed by birds [7]-[9] and human-piloted glider aircraft [10], [11]. Soaring takes advantage of wind energy, specifically upward vertical winds, to gain altitude or remain airborne with minimal energy expenditure. A key strength of soaring is its compatibility with existing systems: it can be integrated into any fixed-wing aircraft without requiring hardware modifications, making it a valuable complement to other endurance-enhancing strategies. V arious types of soaring techniques exist [12].

Holonomic autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) have the hardware ability for agile maneuvering in both translational and rotational degrees of freedom (DOFs). However, due to challenges inherent to underwater vehicles, such as complex hydrostatics and hydrodynamics, parametric uncertainties, and frequent changes in dynamics due to payload changes, control is challenging. Performance typically relies on carefully tuned controllers targeting unique platform configurations, and a need for re-tuning for deployment under varying payloads and hydrodynamic conditions. As a consequence, agile maneuvering with simultaneous tracking of time-varying references in both translational and rotational DOFs is rarely utilized in practice. To the best of our knowledge, this paper presents the first general zero-shot sim2real deep reinforcement learning-based (DRL) velocity controller enabling path following and agile 6DOF maneuvering with a training duration of just 3 minutes. Sim2Swim, the proposed approach, inspired by state-of-the-art DRL-based position control, leverages domain randomization and massively parallelized training to converge to field-deployable control policies for AUVs of variable characteristics without post-processing or tuning. Sim2Swim is extensively validated in pool trials for a variety of configurations, showcasing robust control for highly agile motions.