Collaborative-Distilled Diffusion Models (CDDM) for Accelerated and Lightweight Trajectory Prediction

Abstract--Trajectory prediction is a fundamental task in Autonomous V ehicles (A Vs) and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), supporting efficient motion planning and real-time traffic safety management. Diffusion models have recently demonstrated strong performance in probabilistic trajectory prediction, but their large model size and slow sampling process hinder real-world deployment. This paper proposes Collaborative-Distilled Diffusion Models (CDDM), a novel method for real-time and lightweight trajectory prediction. Built upon Collaborative Progressive Distillation (CPD), CDDM progressively transfers knowledge from a high-capacity teacher diffusion model to a lightweight student model, jointly reducing both the number of sampling steps and the model size across distillation iterations. A dual-signal regularized distillation loss is further introduced to incorporate guidance from both the teacher and ground-truth data, mitigating potential overfitting and ensuring robust performance. Extensive experiments on the ETH-UCY pedestrian benchmark and the nuScenes vehicle benchmark demonstrate that CDDM achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy. The well-distilled CDDM retains 96.2% and 95.5% of the baseline model's ADE and FDE performance on pedestrian trajectories, while requiring only 231K parameters and 4 or 2 sampling steps, corresponding to 161 compression, 31 acceleration, and 9 ms latency. Qualitative results further show that CDDM generates diverse and accurate trajectories under dynamic agent behaviors and complex social interactions. By bridging high-performing generative models with practical deployment constraints, CDDM enables resource-efficient probabilistic prediction for A Vs and ITS. As the rapid development of Autonomous V ehicles (A Vs) and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), an increasing trend of research advancement in trajectory prediction has emerged. Trajectory prediction refers to the predictive estimation of traffic agents' future motion or states (e.g., vehicles, pedestrians) in complex surrounding environments.