An evaluation of randomized machine learning methods for redundant data: Predicting short and medium-term suicide risk from administrative records and risk assessments

Accurate prediction of suicide risk in mental health patients remains an open problem. Existing methods including clinician judgments have acceptable sensitivity, but yield many false positives. Exploiting administrative data has a great potential, but the data has high dimensionality and redundancies in the recording processes. We investigate the efficacy of three most effective randomized machine learning techniques - random forests, gradient boosting machines, and deep neural nets with dropout - in predicting suicide risk. Using a cohort of mental health patients from a regional Australian hospital, we compare the predictive performance with popular traditional approaches - clinician judgments based on a checklist, sparse logistic regression and decision trees. The randomized methods demonstrated robustness against data redundancies and superior predictive performance on AUC and F-measure. Keywords: Suicide risk, Electronic medical record, Predictive models, Randomized machine learning, Deep learning 1. Introduction Every year, about 2000 Australians die by suicide causing huge trauma to families, friends, workplaces and communities[1].