assessment
Scenario theory for multi-criteria data-driven decision making
Garatti, Simone, Manieri, Lucrezia, Falsone, Alessandro, Carè, Algo, Campi, Marco C., Prandini, Maria
The scenario approach provides a powerful data-driven framework for designing solutions under uncertainty with rigorous probabilistic robustness guarantees. Existing theory, however, primarily addresses assessing robustness with respect to a single appropriateness criterion for the solution based on a dataset, whereas many practical applications - including multi-agent decision problems - require the simultaneous consideration of multiple criteria and the assessment of their robustness based on multiple datasets, one per criterion. This paper develops a general scenario theory for multi-criteria data-driven decision making. A central innovation lies in the collective treatment of the risks associated with violations of individual criteria, which yields substantially more accurate robustness certificates than those derived from a naive application of standard results. In turn, this approach enables a sharper quantification of the robustness level with which all criteria are simultaneously satisfied. The proposed framework applies broadly to multi-criteria data-driven decision problems, providing a principled, scalable, and theoretically grounded methodology for design under uncertainty.
Decorrelation, Diversity, and Emergent Intelligence: The Isomorphism Between Social Insect Colonies and Ensemble Machine Learning
Fokoué, Ernest, Babbitt, Gregory, Levental, Yuval
Social insect colonies and ensemble machine learning methods represent two of the most successful examples of decentralized information processing in nature and computation respectively. Here we develop a rigorous mathematical framework demonstrating that ant colony decision-making and random forest learning are isomorphic under a common formalism of \textbf{stochastic ensemble intelligence}. We show that the mechanisms by which genetically identical ants achieve functional differentiation -- through stochastic response to local cues and positive feedback -- map precisely onto the bootstrap aggregation and random feature subsampling that decorrelate decision trees. Using tools from Bayesian inference, multi-armed bandit theory, and statistical learning theory, we prove that both systems implement identical variance reduction strategies through decorrelation of identical units. We derive explicit mappings between ant recruitment rates and tree weightings, pheromone trail reinforcement and out-of-bag error estimation, and quorum sensing and prediction averaging. This isomorphism suggests that collective intelligence, whether biological or artificial, emerges from a universal principle: \textbf{randomized identical agents + diversity-enforcing mechanisms $\rightarrow$ emergent optimality}.
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'Thank God they're still alive': Kaiser therapists claim its new screening system puts patients at higher risk by delaying their care
'Thank God they're still alive': Kaiser therapists claim its new screening system puts patients at higher risk by delaying their care Kaiser pushed back on striking workers' claims and AI fears, saying it delivers'timely, high-quality care to meet members' needs' I lana Marcucci-Morris is worried about the patients she treats and how long it took for them to arrive in her office. At Kaiser Permanente's psychiatry outpatient clinic in Oakland, California, she says she increasingly finds herself assessing people experiencing severe mental health issues whom she believes should have been sent to the emergency room weeks earlier. For those who do make it to their appointments, she thinks: "Thank God they're still alive." It wasn't always this way, according to Marcucci-Morris, a licensed clinical social worker. Licensed professionals used to almost always be the first point of contact for patients with behavioral health issues at Kaiser, she said. She has noticed a change since January 2024, after the healthcare giant introduced a new screening process for first-time patients.
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Machine learning framework to predict global imperilment status of freshwater fish
Researchers spent five years developing an AI-based model to protect freshwater fish worldwide from extinction, with a particular focus on identifying threats to fish before they become endangered. "People sometimes go in to protect species when it's already too late," said Ivan Arismendi, an associate professor in Oregon State University's Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences. "With our model, decision makers can deploy resources in advance before a species becomes imperiled." The findings were recently published in the journal Nature Communications. Nearly one-third of freshwater fish species face possible extinction, threatening food supplies, ecosystems and outdoor recreation.
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Government backtracks on AI and copyright after outcry from major artists
We have listened, Technology Secretary Liz Kendall said on Wednesday, saying the government no longer favours that approach. However, the government's position is now unclear, saying it no longer has a preferred option for what to do next. Kendall said the government had engaged extensively with people in the creative and AI industries. It is attempting to balance the interests of the two sectors by giving creatives control how their work is used, while recognising AI models need to be trained on work such as writing, music and video. In a report published on Wednesday, the government said there was no consensus on how these objectives should be achieved.
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