Outcome-Oriented Predictive Process Monitoring: Review and Benchmark

Traditional process monitoring techniques provide dashboards and reports showing the recent performance of a business process in terms of key performance indicators such as mean execution time, resource utilization or error rate with respect to a given notion of error. Predictive (business) process monitoring techniques go beyond traditional ones by making predictions about the future state of the executions of a business process (herein called cases). For example, a predictive monitoring technique may seek to predict the remaining execution time of each ongoing case of a process [29], the next activity that will be executed in each case [11], or the final outcome of a case, with respect to a possible set of business outcomes [23-25]. For instance, in an order-to-cash process (a process going from the receipt of a purchase order to the receipt of payment of the corresponding invoice), the possible outcomes of a case may be that the purchase order is closed satisfactorily (i.e., the customer accepted the products and paid) or unsatisfactorily (e.g., the order was canceled or withdrawn). Another set of possible outcomes is that the products were delivered on time (with respect to a maximum acceptable delivery time), or delivered late. Recent years have seen the emergence of a rich field of proposed methods for predictive process monitoring in general, and predictive monitoring of (categorical) case outcomes in particular - herein called outcome-oriented predictive process monitoring. Unfortunately, there is no unified approach to evaluate these methods. Indeed, different authors have used different datasets, experimental settings, evaluation measures and baselines.