Predicting Events In MOBA Games: Dataset, Attribution, and Evaluation

The multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) games are becoming increasingly popular in recent years. Consequently, many efforts have been devoted to providing pre-game or in-game predictions for MOBA games. However, these works are limited in the following two aspects: 1) the lack of sufficient in-game features; 2) the absence of interpretability in the prediction results. These two limitations greatly restrict their practical performances and industrial applications. In this work, we collect and release a large-scale dataset containing rich in-game features for the popular MOBA game Honor of Kings. We then propose to predict four types of important events in an interpretable way by attributing the predictions to the input features using two gradient-based attribution methods: Integrated Gradients and SmoothGrad. To evaluate the explanatory power of different models and attribution methods, a fidelity-based evaluation metric is further proposed. Finally, we evaluate the accuracy and Fidelity of several competitive methods on the collected dataset to assess how well do machines predict the events in MOBA games.