High-dimensional macroeconomic forecasting using message passing algorithms

As a response to the increasing linkages between the macroeconomy and the financial sector, as well as the expanding interconnectedness of the global economy, empirical macroeconomic models have increased both in complexity and size. For that reason, estimation of modern models that inform macroeconomic decisions - such as linear and nonlinear versions of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) and vector autoregressive (VAR) models - many times relies on Bayesian inference via powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. 1 However, existing posterior simulation algorithms cannot scale up to very high-dimensions due to the computational inefficiency and the larger numerical error associated with repeated sampling via Monte Carlo; see Angelino et al. (2016) for a thorough review of such computational issues from a machine learning and high-dimensional data perspective. In that respect, while Bayesian inference is a natural probabilistic framework for learning about parameters by utilizing all information in the data likelihood and prior, computational restrictions might make it less suitable for supporting real-time decision-making in very high dimensions. This paper introduces to the econometric literature the framework of factor graphs (Kschischang et al., 2001) for the purpose of designing computationally efficient, and easy to maintain, Bayesian estimation algorithms. The focus is not only on "faster" posterior inference broadly interpreted, but on designing algorithms that have such low complexity that are future-proof and can be used in high-dimensional econometric problems with possibly thousands or millions of coefficients.