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 Uncertainty


Order-theoretic models for decision-making: Learning, optimization, complexity and computation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The study of intelligent systems explains behaviour in terms of economic rationality. This results in an optimization principle involving a function or utility, which states that the system will evolve until the configuration of maximum utility is achieved. Recently, this theory has incorporated constraints, i.e., the optimum is achieved when the utility is maximized while respecting some information-processing constraints. This is reminiscent of thermodynamic systems. As such, the study of intelligent systems has benefited from the tools of thermodynamics. The first aim of this thesis is to clarify the applicability of these results in the study of intelligent systems. We can think of the local transition steps in thermodynamic or intelligent systems as being driven by uncertainty. In fact, the transitions in both systems can be described in terms of majorization. Hence, real-valued uncertainty measures like Shannon entropy are simply a proxy for their more involved behaviour. More in general, real-valued functions are fundamental to study optimization and complexity in the order-theoretic approach to several topics, including economics, thermodynamics, and quantum mechanics. The second aim of this thesis is to improve on this classification. The basic similarity between thermodynamic and intelligent systems is based on an uncertainty notion expressed by a preorder. We can also think of the transitions in the steps of a computational process as a decision-making procedure. In fact, by adding some requirements on the considered order structures, we can build an abstract model of uncertainty reduction that allows to incorporate computability, that is, to distinguish the objects that can be constructed by following a finite set of instructions from those that cannot. The third aim of this thesis is to clarify the requirements on the order structure that allow such a framework.


Neural Visibility Field for Uncertainty-Driven Active Mapping

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents Neural Visibility Field (NVF), a novel uncertainty quantification method for Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) applied to active mapping. Our key insight is that regions not visible in the training views lead to inherently unreliable color predictions by NeRF at this region, resulting in increased uncertainty in the synthesized views. To address this, we propose to use Bayesian Networks to composite position-based field uncertainty into ray-based uncertainty in camera observations. Consequently, NVF naturally assigns higher uncertainty to unobserved regions, aiding robots to select the most informative next viewpoints. Extensive evaluations show that NVF excels not only in uncertainty quantification but also in scene reconstruction for active mapping, outperforming existing methods.


Scalable Differentiable Causal Discovery in the Presence of Latent Confounders with Skeleton Posterior (Extended Version)

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Differentiable causal discovery has made significant advancements in the learning of directed acyclic graphs. However, its application to real-world datasets remains restricted due to the ubiquity of latent confounders and the requirement to learn maximal ancestral graphs (MAGs). To date, existing differentiable MAG learning algorithms have been limited to small datasets and failed to scale to larger ones (e.g., with more than 50 variables). The key insight in this paper is that the causal skeleton, which is the undirected version of the causal graph, has potential for improving accuracy and reducing the search space of the optimization procedure, thereby enhancing the performance of differentiable causal discovery. Therefore, we seek to address a two-fold challenge to harness the potential of the causal skeleton for differentiable causal discovery in the presence of latent confounders: (1) scalable and accurate estimation of skeleton and (2) universal integration of skeleton estimation with differentiable causal discovery. To this end, we propose SPOT (Skeleton Posterior-guided OpTimization), a two-phase framework that harnesses skeleton posterior for differentiable causal discovery in the presence of latent confounders. On the contrary to a ``point-estimation'', SPOT seeks to estimate the posterior distribution of skeletons given the dataset. It first formulates the posterior inference as an instance of amortized inference problem and concretizes it with a supervised causal learning (SCL)-enabled solution to estimate the skeleton posterior. To incorporate the skeleton posterior with differentiable causal discovery, SPOT then features a skeleton posterior-guided stochastic optimization procedure to guide the optimization of MAGs. [abridged due to length limit]


Symmetry-driven embedding of networks in hyperbolic space

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Hyperbolic models can reproduce the heavy-tailed degree distribution, high clustering, and hierarchical structure of empirical networks. Current algorithms for finding the hyperbolic coordinates of networks, however, do not quantify uncertainty in the inferred coordinates. We present BIGUE, a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that samples the posterior distribution of a Bayesian hyperbolic random graph model. We show that combining random walk and random cluster transformations significantly improves mixing compared to the commonly used and state-of-the-art dynamic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. Using this algorithm, we also provide evidence that the posterior distribution cannot be approximated by a multivariate normal distribution, thereby justifying the use of MCMC to quantify the uncertainty of the inferred parameters.


A Benchmark Suite for Systematically Evaluating Reasoning Shortcuts

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The advent of powerful neural classifiers has increased interest in problems that require both learning and reasoning. These problems are critical for understanding important properties of models, such as trustworthiness, generalization, interpretability, and compliance to safety and structural constraints. However, recent research observed that tasks requiring both learning and reasoning on background knowledge often suffer from reasoning shortcuts (RSs): predictors can solve the downstream reasoning task without associating the correct concepts to the high-dimensional data. To address this issue, we introduce rsbench, a comprehensive benchmark suite designed to systematically evaluate the impact of RSs on models by providing easy access to highly customizable tasks affected by RSs. Furthermore, rsbench implements common metrics for evaluating concept quality and introduces novel formal verification procedures for assessing the presence of RSs in learning tasks. Using rsbench, we highlight that obtaining high quality concepts in both purely neural and neuro-symbolic models is a far-from-solved problem. rsbench is available at: https://unitn-sml.github.io/rsbench.


PixRO: Pixel-Distributed Rotational Odometry with Gaussian Belief Propagation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Visual sensors are not only becoming better at capturing high-quality images but also they have steadily increased their capabilities in processing data on their own on-chip. Yet the majority of Visual Odometry (VO) pipelines rely on the transmission and processing of full images in a centralized unit (e.g. CPU or GPU), which often contain much redundant and low-quality information for the task. In this paper, we address the task of frame-to-frame rotational estimation but, instead of reasoning about relative motion between frames using the full images, distribute the estimation at pixel-level. In this paradigm, each pixel produces an estimate of the global motion by only relying on local information and local message-passing with neighbouring pixels. The resulting per-pixel estimates can be then communicated to downstream tasks, yielding higher-level, informative cues instead of the original raw pixel-readings. We evaluate the proposed approach on real public datasets, where we offer detailed insights about this novel technique and open-source our implementation for the future benefit of the community.


The Rise and Fall(?) of Software Engineering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the last ten years, the realm of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has experienced an explosion of revolutionary breakthroughs, transforming what seemed like a far-off dream into a reality that is now deeply embedded in our everyday lives. AI's widespread impact is revolutionizing virtually all aspects of human life, and software engineering (SE) is no exception. As we explore this changing landscape, we are faced with questions about what the future holds for SE and how AI will reshape the roles, duties, and methodologies within the field. The introduction of these groundbreaking technologies highlights the inevitable shift towards a new paradigm, suggesting a future where AI's capabilities may redefine the boundaries of SE, potentially even more than human input. In this paper, we aim at outlining the key elements that, based on our expertise, are vital for the smooth integration of AI into SE, all while preserving the intrinsic human creativity that has been the driving force behind the field. First, we provide a brief description of SE and AI evolution. Afterward, we delve into the intricate interplay between AI-driven automation and human innovation, exploring how these two components can work together to advance SE practices to new methods and standards.


Chebyshev Polynomial-Based Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks: An Efficient Architecture for Nonlinear Function Approximation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate approximation of complex nonlinear functions is a fundamental challenge across many scientific and engineering domains. Traditional neural network architectures, such as Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), often struggle to efficiently capture intricate patterns and irregularities present in high-dimensional functions. This paper presents the Chebyshev Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (Chebyshev KAN), a new neural network architecture inspired by the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation theorem, incorporating the powerful approximation capabilities of Chebyshev polynomials. By utilizing learnable functions parametrized by Chebyshev polynomials on the network's edges, Chebyshev KANs enhance flexibility, efficiency, and interpretability in function approximation tasks. We demonstrate the efficacy of Chebyshev KANs through experiments on digit classification, synthetic function approximation, and fractal function generation, highlighting their superiority over traditional MLPs in terms of parameter efficiency and interpretability. Our comprehensive evaluation, including ablation studies, confirms the potential of Chebyshev KANs to address longstanding challenges in nonlinear function approximation, paving the way for further advancements in various scientific and engineering applications.


A Fundamental Trade-off in Aligned Language Models and its Relation to Sampling Adaptors

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The relationship between the quality of a string and its probability $p(\boldsymbol{y})$ under a language model has been influential in the development of techniques to build good text generation systems. For example, several decoding algorithms have been motivated to manipulate $p(\boldsymbol{y})$ to produce higher-quality text. In this work, we examine the probability--quality relationship in language models explicitly aligned to human preferences, e.g., through Reinforcement Learning through Human Feedback (RLHF). We find that, given a general language model and its aligned version, for corpora sampled from an aligned language model, there exists a trade-off between the average reward and average log-likelihood of the strings under the general language model. We provide a formal treatment of this issue and demonstrate how a choice of sampling adaptor allows for a selection of how much likelihood we exchange for the reward.


MEMO-QCD: Quantum Density Estimation through Memetic Optimisation for Quantum Circuit Design

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents a strategy for efficient quantum circuit design for density estimation. The strategy is based on a quantum-inspired algorithm for density estimation and a circuit optimisation routine based on memetic algorithms. The model maps a training dataset to a quantum state represented by a density matrix through a quantum feature map. This training state encodes the probability distribution of the dataset in a quantum state, such that the density of a new sample can be estimated by projecting its corresponding quantum state onto the training state. We propose the application of a memetic algorithm to find the architecture and parameters of a variational quantum circuit that implements the quantum feature map, along with a variational learning strategy to prepare the training state. Demonstrations of the proposed strategy show an accurate approximation of the Gaussian kernel density estimation method through shallow quantum circuits illustrating the feasibility of the algorithm for near-term quantum hardware.