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Uncertainty: Instructional Materials


9 Completely Free Statistics Courses for Data Science

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This is a complete Free course for statistics. In this course, you will learn how to estimate parameters of a population using sample statistics, hypothesis testing and confidence intervals, t-tests and ANOVA, correlation and regression, and chi-squared test. This course is taught by industry professionals and you will learn by doing various exercises.


Survey and Evaluation of Causal Discovery Methods for Time Series

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

We introduce in this survey the major concepts, models, and algorithms proposed so far to infer causal relations from observational time series, a task usually referred to as causal discovery in time series. To do so, after a description of the underlying concepts and modelling assumptions, we present different methods according to the family of approaches they belong to: Granger causality, constraint-based approaches, noise-based approaches, score-based approaches, logic-based approaches, topology-based approaches, and difference-based approaches. We then evaluate several representative methods to illustrate the behaviour of different families of approaches. This illustration is conducted on both artificial and real datasets, with different characteristics. The main conclusions one can draw from this survey is that causal discovery in times series is an active research field in which new methods (in every family of approaches) are regularly proposed, and that no family or method stands out in all situations. Indeed, they all rely on assumptions that may or may not be appropriate for a particular dataset.


Adjoint-aided inference of Gaussian process driven differential equations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Linear systems occur throughout engineering and the sciences, most notably as differential equations. In many cases the forcing function for the system is unknown, and interest lies in using noisy observations of the system to infer the forcing, as well as other unknown parameters. In differential equations, the forcing function is an unknown function of the independent variables (typically time and space), and can be modelled as a Gaussian process (GP). In this paper we show how the adjoint of a linear system can be used to efficiently infer forcing functions modelled as GPs, after using a truncated basis expansion of the GP kernel. We show how exact conjugate Bayesian inference for the truncated GP can be achieved, in many cases with substantially lower computation than would be required using MCMC methods. We demonstrate the approach on systems of both ordinary and partial differential equations, and by testing on synthetic data, show that the basis expansion approach approximates well the true forcing with a modest number of basis vectors. Finally, we show how to infer point estimates for the non-linear model parameters, such as the kernel length-scales, using Bayesian optimisation.


BAM: Bayes with Adaptive Memory

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Online learning via Bayes' theorem allows new data to be continuously integrated into an agent's current beliefs. However, a naive application of Bayesian methods in non stationary environments leads to slow adaptation and results in state estimates that may converge confidently to the wrong parameter value. A common solution when learning in changing environments is to discard/downweight past data; however, this simple mechanism of "forgetting" fails to account for the fact that many real-world environments involve revisiting similar states. We propose a new framework, Bayes with Adaptive Memory (BAM), that takes advantage of past experience by allowing the agent to choose which past observations to remember and which to forget. We demonstrate that BAM generalizes many popular Bayesian update rules for non-stationary environments. Through a variety of experiments, we demonstrate the ability of BAM to continuously adapt in an ever-changing world.


Stop Oversampling for Class Imbalance Learning: A Critical Review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

For the last two decades, oversampling has been employed to overcome the challenge of learning from imbalanced datasets. Many approaches to solving this challenge have been offered in the literature. Oversampling, on the other hand, is a concern. That is, models trained on fictitious data may fail spectacularly when put to real-world problems. The fundamental difficulty with oversampling approaches is that, given a real-life population, the synthesized samples may not truly belong to the minority class. As a result, training a classifier on these samples while pretending they represent minority may result in incorrect predictions when the model is used in the real world. We analyzed a large number of oversampling methods in this paper and devised a new oversampling evaluation system based on hiding a number of majority examples and comparing them to those generated by the oversampling process. Based on our evaluation system, we ranked all these methods based on their incorrectly generated examples for comparison. Our experiments using more than 70 oversampling methods and three imbalanced real-world datasets reveal that all oversampling methods studied generate minority samples that are most likely to be majority. Given data and methods in hand, we argue that oversampling in its current forms and methodologies is unreliable for learning from class imbalanced data and should be avoided in real-world applications.


Tutorial on amortized optimization for learning to optimize over continuous domains

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Optimization is a ubiquitous modeling tool and is often deployed in settings which repeatedly solve similar instances of the same problem. Amortized optimization methods use learning to predict the solutions to problems in these settings. This leverages the shared structure between similar problem instances. In this tutorial, we will discuss the key design choices behind amortized optimization, roughly categorizing 1) models into fully-amortized and semi-amortized approaches, and 2) learning methods into regression-based and objectivebased. We then view existing applications through these foundations to draw connections between them, including for manifold optimization, variational inference, sparse coding, meta-learning, control, reinforcement learning, convex optimization, and deep equilibrium networks. This framing enables us easily see, for example, that the amortized inference in variational autoencoders is conceptually identical to value gradients in control and reinforcement learning as they both use fully-amortized models with an objective-based loss.


Submodularity In Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this manuscript, we offer a gentle review of submodularity and supermodularity and their properties. We offer a plethora of submodular definitions; a full description of a number of example submodular functions and their generalizations; example discrete constraints; a discussion of basic algorithms for maximization, minimization, and other operations; a brief overview of continuous submodular extensions; and some historical applications. We then turn to how submodularity is useful in machine learning and artificial intelligence. This includes summarization, and we offer a complete account of the differences between and commonalities amongst sketching, coresets, extractive and abstractive summarization in NLP, data distillation and condensation, and data subset selection and feature selection. We discuss a variety of ways to produce a submodular function useful for machine learning, including heuristic hand-crafting, learning or approximately learning a submodular function or aspects thereof, and some advantages of the use of a submodular function as a coreset producer. We discuss submodular combinatorial information functions, and how submodularity is useful for clustering, data partitioning, parallel machine learning, active and semi-supervised learning, probabilistic modeling, and structured norms and loss functions.


Probability and Statistics for Business and Data Science

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Probability for improved business decisions: Introduction, Combinatorics, Bayesian Inference, Distributions. Welcome to Probability and Statistics for Business and Data Science! In this course we cover what you need to know about probability and statistics to succeed in business and the data science field! This practical course will go over theory and implementation of statistics to real world problems. Each section has example problems, in course quizzes, and assessment tests.


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#artificialintelligence

Fuzzy Logic isn't often mentioned in the same room as Artificial Intelligence (AI). Pardon the pun, but most people find the idea of fuzzy logic to be fuzzy. However fuzzy logic has been working behind the scenes and bringing forth amazing technological advances for more than two decades. Fuzzy logic is a rule-based system that can rely on the practical experience of a data scientist or an expert. Fuzzy logic is a form of artificial intelligence, thus it is considered a subset of AI. Since it is performing a form of decision making, it can be included as a member of the AI family which includes Machine Learning and Deep Learning.


Robust Imitation Learning from Corrupted Demonstrations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider offline Imitation Learning from corrupted demonstrations where a constant fraction of data can be noise or even arbitrary outliers. Classical approaches such as Behavior Cloning assumes that demonstrations are collected by an presumably optimal expert, hence may fail drastically when learning from corrupted demonstrations. We propose a novel robust algorithm by minimizing a Median-of-Means (MOM) objective which guarantees the accurate estimation of policy, even in the presence of constant fraction of outliers. Our theoretical analysis shows that our robust method in the corrupted setting enjoys nearly the same error scaling and sample complexity guarantees as the classical Behavior Cloning in the expert demonstration setting. Our experiments on continuous-control benchmarks validate that our method exhibits the predicted robustness and effectiveness, and achieves competitive results compared to existing imitation learning methods.