Autonomous surface vessels (ASVs) are becoming increasingly significant in enhancing the safety and sustainability of maritime operations. To ensure the reliability of modern control algorithms utilized in these vessels, digital twins (DTs) provide a robust framework for conducting safe and effective simulations within a virtual environment. Digital twins are generally classified on a scale from 0 to 5, with each level representing a progression in complexity and functionality: Level 0 (Standalone) employs offline modeling techniques; Level 1 (Descriptive) integrates sensors and online modeling to enhance situational awareness; Level 2 (Diagnostic) focuses on condition monitoring and cybersecurity; Level 3 (Predictive) incorporates predictive analytics; Level 4 (Prescriptive) embeds decision-support systems; and Level 5 (Autonomous) enables advanced functionalities such as collision avoidance and path following. These digital representations not only provide insights into the vessel's current state and operational efficiency but also predict future scenarios and assess life endurance. By continuously updating with real-time sensor data, the digital twin effectively corrects modeling errors and enhances decision-making processes. Since DTs are key enablers for complex autonomous systems, this paper introduces a comprehensive methodology for establishing a digital twin framework specifically tailored for ASVs. Through a detailed literature survey, we explore existing state-of-the-art enablers across the defined levels, offering valuable recommendations for future research and development in this rapidly evolving field.

Generalization outside the scope of one's training data requires leveraging prior knowledge about the effects that transfer, and the effects that don't, between different data sources. Bayesian transfer learning is a principled paradigm for specifying this knowledge, and refining it on the basis of data from the source (training) and target (prediction) tasks. We address the challenging transfer learning setting where the learner (i) cannot fine-tune in the target task, and (ii) does not know which source data points correspond to the same task (i.e., the data sources are unknown). We propose a proxy-informed robust method for probabilistic transfer learning (PROMPT), which provides a posterior predictive estimate tailored to the structure of the target task, without requiring the learner have access to any outcome information from the target task. Instead, PROMPT relies on the availability of proxy information. PROMPT uses the same proxy information for two purposes: (i) estimation of effects specific to the target task, and (ii) construction of a robust reweighting of the source data for estimation of effects that transfer between tasks. We provide theoretical results on the effect of this reweighting on the risk of negative transfer, and demonstrate application of PROMPT in two synthetic settings.

We study the problem of globally optimising a target variable of an unknown causal graph on which a sequence of soft or hard interventions can be performed. The problem of optimising the target variable associated with a causal graph is formalised as Causal Bayesian Optimisation (CBO). We study the CBO problem under the cumulative regret objective with unknown causal graphs for two settings, namely structural causal models with hard interventions and function networks with soft interventions. We propose Graph Agnostic Causal Bayesian Optimisation (GACBO), an algorithm that actively discovers the causal structure that contributes to achieving optimal rewards. GACBO seeks to balance exploiting the actions that give the best rewards against exploring the causal structures and functions. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to study causal Bayesian optimization with cumulative regret objectives in scenarios where the graph is unknown or partially known. We show our proposed algorithm outperforms baselines in simulated experiments and real-world applications.

We propose reinterpreting copula density estimation as a discriminative task. Under this novel estimation scheme, we train a classifier to distinguish samples from the joint density from those of the product of independent marginals, recovering the copula density in the process. We derive equivalences between well-known copula classes and classification problems naturally arising in our interpretation. Furthermore, we show our estimator achieves theoretical guarantees akin to maximum likelihood estimation. By identifying a connection with density ratio estimation, we benefit from the rich literature and models available for such problems. Empirically, we demonstrate the applicability of our approach by estimating copulas of real and high-dimensional datasets, outperforming competing copula estimators in density evaluation as well as sampling.

As a prominent challenge in addressing real-world issues within a dynamic environment, label shift, which refers to the learning setting where the source (training) and target (testing) label distributions do not match, has recently received increasing attention. Existing label shift methods solely use unlabeled target samples to estimate the target label distribution, and do not involve them during the classifier training, resulting in suboptimal utilization of available information. One common solution is to directly blend the source and target distributions during the training of the target classifier. However, we illustrate the theoretical deviation and limitations of the direct distribution mixture in the label shift setting. To tackle this crucial yet unexplored issue, we introduce the concept of aligned distribution mixture, showcasing its theoretical optimality and generalization error bounds. By incorporating insights from generalization theory, we propose an innovative label shift framework named as Aligned Distribution Mixture (ADM). Within this framework, we enhance four typical label shift methods by introducing modifications to the classifier training process. Furthermore, we also propose a one-step approach that incorporates a pioneering coupling weight estimation strategy. Considering the distinctiveness of the proposed one-step approach, we develop an efficient bi-level optimization strategy. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approaches, together with their effectiveness in COVID-19 diagnosis applications.

Extreme events are evolving as a direct consequence of climate change, leading to the emergence of new, previously unobserved phenomena [1, 2]. In remote regions like the Arctic, where in-situ measurements are sparse, scientists must increasingly depend on analytical and numerical models to explore these events. However, modeling in such regions presents significant challenges due to the uncertainties in the data required to calibrate and validate these models [3]. Consequently, large simplifications are often necessary, resulting in substantial discrepancies between observed and modeled phenomena. The mysterious 10.88 mHz very-long-period (VLP) seismic signal, which appeared following a tsunamigenic landslide in the Dickson Fjord, Greenland, on September 16th, 2023, and the subsequent interdisciplinary scientific efforts to determine its origin, underscore these challenges. Two independent studies [4, 5] have hypothesized that the signal was driven by a standing wave, or seiche, which formed in the aftermath of the tsunami. While it is well-documented that seiches can form in resonant enclosed and semi-enclosed basins [6], the loading-induced tilt they produce has only been observed locally (< 30 km) and for short durations (< 1 hour)[5, 7]. Moreover, no prior evidence exists of persistent fluid sloshing (lasting several days) without an external driver.

Data sharing is a prerequisite for collaborative innovation, enabling organizations to leverage diverse datasets for deeper insights. In real-world applications like FinTech and Smart Manufacturing, transactional data, often in tabular form, are generated and analyzed for insight generation. However, such datasets typically contain sensitive personal/business information, raising privacy concerns and regulatory risks. Data synthesis tackles this by generating artificial datasets that preserve the statistical characteristics of real data, removing direct links to individuals. However, attackers can still infer sensitive information using background knowledge. Differential privacy offers a solution by providing provable and quantifiable privacy protection. Consequently, differentially private data synthesis has emerged as a promising approach to privacy-aware data sharing. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of existing differentially private tabular data synthesis methods, highlighting the unique challenges of each generation model for generating tabular data under differential privacy constraints. We classify the methods into statistical and deep learning-based approaches based on their generation models, discussing them in both centralized and distributed environments. We evaluate and compare those methods within each category, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses in terms of utility, privacy, and computational complexity. Additionally, we present and discuss various evaluation methods for assessing the quality of the synthesized data, identify research gaps in the field and directions for future research.

In this paper, we present a novel algorithm for probabilistically updating and rasterizing semantic maps within 3D Gaussian Splatting (3D-GS). Although previous methods have introduced algorithms which learn to rasterize features in 3D-GS for enhanced scene understanding, 3D-GS can fail without warning which presents a challenge for safety-critical robotic applications. To address this gap, we propose a method which advances the literature of continuous semantic mapping from voxels to ellipsoids, combining the precise structure of 3D-GS with the ability to quantify uncertainty of probabilistic robotic maps. Given a set of images, our algorithm performs a probabilistic semantic update directly on the 3D ellipsoids to obtain an expectation and variance through the use of conjugate priors. We also propose a probabilistic rasterization which returns per-pixel segmentation predictions with quantifiable uncertainty. We compare our method with similar probabilistic voxel-based methods to verify our extension to 3D ellipsoids, and perform ablation studies on uncertainty quantification and temporal smoothing.

Machine learning enables unbinned, highly-differential cross section measurements. A recent idea uses generative models to morph a starting simulation into the unfolded data. We show how to extend two morphing techniques, Schr\"odinger Bridges and Direct Diffusion, in order to ensure that the models learn the correct conditional probabilities. This brings distribution mapping to a similar level of accuracy as the state-of-the-art conditional generative unfolding methods. Numerical results are presented with a standard benchmark dataset of single jet substructure as well as for a new dataset describing a 22-dimensional phase space of Z + 2-jets.

We study fair allocation of constrained resources, where a market designer optimizes overall welfare while maintaining group fairness. In many large-scale settings, utilities are not known in advance, but are instead observed after realizing the allocation. We therefore estimate agent utilities using machine learning. Optimizing over estimates requires trading-off between mean utilities and their predictive variances. We discuss these trade-offs under two paradigms for preference modeling -- in the stochastic optimization regime, the market designer has access to a probability distribution over utilities, and in the robust optimization regime they have access to an uncertainty set containing the true utilities with high probability. We discuss utilitarian and egalitarian welfare objectives, and we explore how to optimize for them under stochastic and robust paradigms. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approaches on three publicly available conference reviewer assignment datasets. The approaches presented enable scalable constrained resource allocation under uncertainty for many combinations of objectives and preference models.