It is increasingly common for data to possess intricate structure, necessitating new models and analytical tools. Graphs, a prominent type of structure, can encode the relationships between any two entities (nodes). However, graphs neither allow connections that are not dyadic nor permit relationships between sets of nodes. We thus turn to simplicial complexes for connecting more than two nodes as well as modeling relationships between simplices, such as edges and triangles. Our data then consist of signals lying on topological spaces, represented by simplicial complexes. Much recent work explores these topological signals, albeit primarily through deterministic formulations. We propose a probabilistic framework for random signals defined on simplicial complexes. Specifically, we generalize the classical notion of stationarity. By spectral dualities of Hodge and Dirac theory, we define stationary topological signals as the outputs of topological filters given white noise. This definition naturally extends desirable properties of stationarity that hold for both time-series and graph signals. Crucially, we properly define topological power spectral density (PSD) through a clear spectral characterization. We then discuss the advantages of topological stationarity due to spectral properties via the PSD. In addition, we empirically demonstrate the practicality of these benefits through multiple synthetic and real-world simulations.

Many ideas in modern control and reinforcement learning treat decision-making as inference: start from a baseline distribution and update it when a signal arrives. We ask when this can be made literal rather than metaphorical. We study the special case where a KL-regularized soft update is exactly a Bayesian posterior inside a single fixed probabilistic model, so the update variable is a genuine channel through which information is transmitted. In this regime, behavioral change is driven only by evidence carried by that channel: the update must be explainable as an evidence reweighing of the baseline. This yields a sharp identification result: posterior updates determine the relative, context-dependent incentive signal that shifts behavior, but they do not uniquely determine absolute rewards, which remain ambiguous up to context-specific baselines. Requiring one reusable continuation value across different update directions adds a further coherence constraint linking the reward descriptions associated with different conditioning orders.

Score-based diffusion models are a recently developed framework for posterior sampling in Bayesian inverse problems with a state-of-the-art performance for severely ill-posed problems by leveraging a powerful prior distribution learned from empirical data. Despite generating significant interest especially in the machine-learning community, a thorough study of realistic inverse problems in the presence of modelling error and utilization of physical measurement data is still outstanding. In this work, the framework of unconditional representation for the conditional score function (UCoS) is evaluated for linearized difference imaging in diffuse optical tomography (DOT). DOT uses boundary measurements of near-infrared light to estimate the spatial distribution of absorption and scattering parameters in biological tissues. The problem is highly ill-posed and thus sensitive to noise and modelling errors. We introduce a novel regularization approach that prevents overfitting of the score function by constructing a mixed score composed of a learned and a model-based component. Validation of this approach is done using both simulated and experimental measurement data. The experiments demonstrate that a data-driven prior distribution results in posterior samples with low variance, compared to classical model-based estimation, and centred around the ground truth, even in the context of a highly ill-posed problem and in the presence of modelling errors.

We analyze a lightweight simulation-based inference method that infers simulator parameters using only a regression-based projection of the observed data. After fitting a surrogate linear regression once, the procedure simulates small batches at the proposed parameter values and assigns kernel weights based on the resulting batch-residual discrepancy, producing a self-normalized pseudo-posterior that is simple, parallelizable, and requires access only to the fitted regression coefficients rather than raw observations. We formalize the construction as an importance-sampling approximation to a population target that averages over simulator randomness, prove consistency as the number of parameter draws grows, and establish stability in estimating the surrogate regression from finite samples. We then characterize the asymptotic concentration as the batch size increases and the bandwidth shrinks, showing that the pseudo-posterior concentrates on an identified set determined by the chosen projection, thereby clarifying when the method yields point versus set identification. Experiments on a tractable nonlinear model and on a cosmological calibration task using the DREAMS simulation suite illustrate the computational advantages of regression-based projections and the identifiability limitations arising from low-information summaries.

Sharp Inequalities between Total Variation and Hellinger Distances for Gaussian Mixtures Joonhyuk Jung 1 and Chao Gao 1 1 Department of Statistics, University of Chicago Abstract We study the relation between the total variation (TV) and Hellinger distances between two Gaussian location mixtures. Our first result establishes a general upper bound: for any two mixing distributions supported on a compact set, the Hellinger distance between the two mixtures is controlled by the TV distance raised to a power 1 o(1), where the o(1) term is of order 1/log log(1/TV). We also construct two sequences of mixing distributions that demonstrate the sharpness of this bound. Taken together, our results resolve an open problem raised in Jia et al. (2023) and thus lead to an entropic characterization of learning Gaussian mixtures in total variation. Our inequality also yields optimal robust estimation of Gaussian mixtures in Hellinger distance, which has a direct implication for bounding the minimax regret of empirical Bayes under Huber contamination. 1 Introduction The Gaussian location mixture is one of the most fundamental models used in nonparametric density estimation, Bayesian inference, and clustering (Lindsay, 1995; Dasgupta, 1999). Given a probability measure π supported on R d, the induced Gaussian mixture is defined by f π(x) = null R dϕ d(x θ)dπ(θ), where ϕ d(x) = (2π) d/2 exp( x 2 2/2) is the density function of the d-dimensional standard Gaussian distribution. In this paper, we study the relation between the total variation distance TV(p,q):= 1 2 null |p q| and the Hellinger distance H(p,q):= null 1 2 null ( p q) 2 of two Gaussian mixture densities.

The performance of machine learning surrogates is critically dependent on data quality and quantity. This presents a major challenge, as high-fidelity (HF) data is often scarce and computationally expensive to acquire, while low-fidelity (LF) data is abundant but less accurate. To address this data-scarcity problem, we develop a probabilistic multi-fidelity surrogate framework based on generative transfer learning. We employ a normalizing flow (NF) generative model as the backbone, which is trained in two phases: (i) the NF is first pretrained on a large LF dataset to learn a probabilistic forward model; (ii) the pretrained model is then fine-tuned on a small HF dataset, allowing it to correct for LF-HF discrepancies via knowledge transfer. To relax the dimension-preserving constraint of standard bijective NFs, we integrate surjective (dimension-reducing) layers with standard coupling blocks. This architecture enables learned dimension reduction while preserving the ability to train with exact likelihoods. The resulting surrogate provides fast probabilistic predictions with quantified uncertainty and significantly outperforms LF-only baselines while using fewer HF evaluations. We validate the approach on a reinforced concrete slab benchmark, combining many coarse-mesh (LF) simulations with a limited set of fine-mesh (HF) simulations. The proposed model achieves probabilistic predictions with HF accuracy, demonstrating a practical path toward data-efficient, generative AI-driven surrogates for complex engineering systems. Email address: David.Barajas-Solano@pnnl.gov (David Barajas-Solano) Introduction High-fidelity (HF) computer modeling using discretization schemes such as the finite elements (FE) method provides a rigorous framework for analyzing and predicting the behavior of complex engineering systems.

In this paper, we propose a general methodology for sampling from un-normalized densities defined on Riemannian manifolds, with a particular focus on multi-modal targets that remain challenging for existing sampling methods. Inspired by the framework of diffusion models developed for generative modeling, we introduce a sampling algorithm based on the simulation of a non-equilibrium deterministic dynamics that transports an easy-to-sample noise distribution toward the target. At the marginal level, the induced density path follows a prescribed stochastic interpolant between the noise and target distributions, specifically constructed to respect the underlying Riemannian geometry. In contrast to related generative modeling approaches that rely on machine learning, our method is entirely training-free. It instead builds on iterative posterior sampling procedures using only standard Monte Carlo techniques, thereby extending recent diffusion-based sampling methodologies beyond the Euclidean setting. We complement our approach with a rigorous theoretical analysis and demonstrate its effectiveness on a range of multi-modal sampling problems, including high-dimensional and heavy-tailed examples.

Importance weighted variational inference (VI) approximates densities known up to a normalizing constant by optimizing bounds that tighten with the number of Monte Carlo samples $N$. Standard optimization relies on reparameterized gradient estimators, which are well-studied theoretically yet restrict both the choice of the data-generating process and the variational approximation. While REINFORCE gradient estimators do not suffer from such restrictions, they lack rigorous theoretical justification. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of REINFORCE gradient estimators in importance weighted VI, leveraging this theoretical foundation to diagnose and resolve fundamental deficiencies in current state-of-the-art estimators. Specifically, we introduce and examine a generalized family of variational inference for Monte Carlo objectives (VIMCO) gradient estimators. We prove that state-of-the-art VIMCO gradient estimators exhibit a vanishing signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) as $N$ increases, which prevents effective optimization. To overcome this issue, we propose the novel VIMCO-$\star$ gradient estimator and show that it averts the SNR collapse of existing VIMCO gradient estimators by achieving a $\sqrt{N}$ SNR scaling instead. We demonstrate its superior empirical performance compared to current VIMCO implementations in challenging settings where reparameterized gradients are typically unavailable.

Scientific machine learning (SciML) increasingly requires models that capture multimodal conditional uncertainty arising from ill-posed inverse problems, multistability, and chaotic dynamics. While recent work has favored highly expressive implicit generative models such as diffusion and flow-based methods, these approaches are often data-hungry, computationally costly, and misaligned with the structured solution spaces frequently found in scientific problems. We demonstrate that Mixture Density Networks (MDNs) provide a principled yet largely overlooked alternative for multimodal uncertainty quantification in SciML. As explicit parametric density estimators, MDNs impose an inductive bias tailored to low-dimensional, multimodal physics, enabling direct global allocation of probability mass across distinct solution branches. This structure delivers strong data efficiency, allowing reliable recovery of separated modes in regimes where scientific data is scarce. We formalize these insights through a unified probabilistic framework contrasting explicit and implicit distribution networks, and demonstrate empirically that MDNs achieve superior generalization, interpretability, and sample efficiency across a range of inverse, multistable, and chaotic scientific regression tasks.

Loss-based updating, including generalized Bayes, Gibbs, and quasi-posteriors, replaces likelihoods by a user-chosen loss and produces a posterior-like distribution via exponential tilt. We give a decision-theoretic characterization that separates \emph{belief posteriors} -- conditional beliefs justified by the foundations of Savage and Anscombe-Aumann under a joint probability mode l-- from \emph{decision posteriors} -- randomized decision rules justified by preferences over decision rules. We make explicit that a loss-based posterior coincides with ordinary Bayes if and only if the loss is, up to scale and a data-only term, negative log-likelihood. We then show that generalized marginal likelihood is not evidence for decision posteriors, and Bayes factors are not well-defined without additional structure. In the decision posterior regime, non-degenerate posteriors require nonlinear preferences over decision rules. Under sequential coherence and separability, these lead to an entropy-penalized variational representation yielding generalized Bayes as the optimal rule.