Class imbalance significantly degrades classification performance, yet its effects are rarely analyzed from a unified theoretical perspective. We propose a principled framework based on three fundamental scales: the imbalance coefficient $η$, the sample--dimension ratio $κ$, and the intrinsic separability $Δ$. Starting from the Gaussian Bayes classifier, we derive closed-form Bayes errors and show how imbalance shifts the discriminant boundary, yielding a deterioration slope that predicts four regimes: Normal, Mild, Extreme, and Catastrophic. Using a balanced high-dimensional genomic dataset, we vary only $η$ while keeping $κ$ and $Δ$ fixed. Across parametric and non-parametric models, empirical degradation closely follows theoretical predictions: minority Recall collapses once $\log(η)$ exceeds $Δ\sqrtκ$, Precision increases asymmetrically, and F1-score and PR-AUC decline in line with the predicted regimes. These results show that the triplet $(η,κ,Δ)$ provides a model-agnostic, geometrically grounded explanation of imbalance-induced deterioration.

Graphs arise across diverse domains, from biology and chemistry to social and information networks, as well as in transportation and logistics. Inference on graph-structured data requires methods that are permutation-invariant, scalable across varying sizes and sparsities, and capable of capturing complex long-range dependencies, making posterior estimation on graph parameters particularly challenging. Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) is a simulation-based framework that employs generative neural networks to enable fast, likelihood-free posterior inference. We adapt ABI to graph data to address these challenges to perform inference on node-, edge-, and graph-level parameters. Our approach couples permutation-invariant graph encoders with flexible neural posterior estimators in a two-module pipeline: a summary network maps attributed graphs to fixed-length representations, and an inference network approximates the posterior over parameters. In this setting, several neural architectures can serve as the summary network. In this work we evaluate multiple architectures and assess their performance on controlled synthetic settings and two real-world domains -- biology and logistics -- in terms of recovery and calibration.

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) is a flexible framework that combines multiple specialized submodels (``experts''), by assigning covariate-dependent weights (``gating functions'') to each expert, and have been commonly used for analyzing heterogeneous data. Existing statistical MoE formulations typically assume constant coefficients, for covariate effects within the expert or gating models, which can be inadequate for longitudinal, spatial, or other dynamic settings where covariate influences and latent subpopulation structure evolve across a known dimension. We propose a Varying-Coefficient Mixture of Experts (VCMoE) model that allows all coefficient effects in both the gating functions and expert models to vary along an indexing variable. We establish identifiability and consistency of the proposed model, and develop an estimation procedure, label-consistent EM algorithm, for both fully functional and hybrid specifications, along with the corresponding asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators. For inference, simultaneous confidence bands are constructed using both asymptotic theory for the maximum discrepancy between the estimated functional coefficients and their true counterparts, and with bootstrap methods. In addition, a generalized likelihood ratio test is developed to examine whether a coefficient function is genuinely varying across the index variable. Simulation studies demonstrate good finite-sample performance, with acceptable bias and satisfactory coverage rates. We illustrate the proposed VCMoE model using a dataset of single nucleus gene expression in embryonic mice to characterize the temporal dynamics of the associations between the expression levels of genes Satb2 and Bcl11b across two latent cell subpopulations of neurons, yielding results that are consistent with prior findings.

We revisit Deep Linear Discriminant Analysis (Deep LDA) from a likelihood-based perspective. While classical LDA is a simple Gaussian model with linear decision boundaries, attaching an LDA head to a neural encoder raises the question of how to train the resulting deep classifier by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We first show that end-to-end MLE training of an unconstrained Deep LDA model ignores discrimination: when both the LDA parameters and the encoder parameters are learned jointly, the likelihood admits a degenerate solution in which some of the class clusters may heavily overlap or even collapse, and classification performance deteriorates. Batchwise moment re-estimation of the LDA parameters does not remove this failure mode. We then propose a constrained Deep LDA formulation that fixes the class means to the vertices of a regular simplex in the latent space and restricts the shared covariance to be spherical, leaving only the priors and a single variance parameter to be learned along with the encoder. Under these geometric constraints, MLE becomes stable and yields well-separated class clusters in the latent space. On images (Fashion-MNIST, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100), the resulting Deep LDA models achieve accuracy competitive with softmax baselines while offering a simple, interpretable latent geometry that is clearly visible in two-dimensional projections.

We show that for unconstrained Deep Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers, maximum-likelihood training admits pathological solutions in which class means drift together, covariances collapse, and the learned representation becomes almost non-discriminative. Conversely, cross-entropy training yields excellent accuracy but decouples the head from the underlying generative model, leading to highly inconsistent parameter estimates. To reconcile generative structure with discriminative performance, we introduce the \emph{Discriminative Negative Log-Likelihood} (DNLL) loss, which augments the LDA log-likelihood with a simple penalty on the mixture density. DNLL can be interpreted as standard LDA NLL plus a term that explicitly discourages regions where several classes are simultaneously likely. Deep LDA trained with DNLL produces clean, well-separated latent spaces, matches the test accuracy of softmax classifiers on synthetic data and standard image benchmarks, and yields substantially better calibrated predictive probabilities, restoring a coherent probabilistic interpretation to deep discriminant models.

Bayesian model selection commonly relies on Laplace approximation or the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), which assume that the effective model dimension equals the number of parameters. Singular learning theory replaces this assumption with the real log canonical threshold (RLCT), an effective dimension that can be strictly smaller in overparameterized or rank-deficient models. We study linear-Gaussian rank models and linear subspace (dictionary) models in which the exact marginal likelihood is available in closed form and the RLCT is analytically tractable. In this setting, we show theoretically and empirically that the error of Laplace/BIC grows linearly with (d/2 minus lambda) times log n, where d is the ambient parameter dimension and lambda is the RLCT. An RLCT-aware correction recovers the correct evidence slope and is invariant to overcomplete reparameterizations that represent the same data subspace. Our results provide a concrete finite-sample characterization of Laplace failure in singular models and demonstrate that evidence slopes can be used as a practical estimator of effective dimension in simple linear settings.

Clinical decision-making demands uncertainty quantification that provides both distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision, requirements that existing methods fail to jointly satisfy. We present a hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework that addresses this fundamental limitation in healthcare predictions. Our approach integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware con-formal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores while maintaining rigorous coverage validity. Evaluated on 61,538 admissions across 3,793 U.S. hospitals and 4 regions, our method achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision: 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases while appropriately widening for high-risk predictions. Critically, we demonstrate that well-calibrated Bayesian uncertainties alone severely under-cover (14.1%), highlighting the necessity of our hybrid approach. This framework enables risk-stratified clinical protocols, efficient resource planning for high-confidence predictions, and conservative allocation with enhanced oversight for uncertain cases, providing uncertainty-aware decision support across diverse healthcare settings.

Abstract--Non-stationary parametric bandits have attracted much attention recently. There are three principled ways to deal with non-stationarity, including sliding-window, weighted, and restart strategies. As many non-stationary environments exhibit gradual drifting patterns, the weighted strategy is commonly adopted in real-world applications. However, previous theoretical studies show that its analysis is more involved and the algorithms are either computationally less efficient or statistically subopti-mal. This paper revisits the weighted strategy for non-stationary parametric bandits. In linear bandits (LB), we discover that this undesirable feature is due to an inadequate regret analysis, which results in an overly complex algorithm design. We propose a refined analysis framework, which simplifies the derivation and, importantly, produces a simpler weight-based algorithm that is as efficient as window/restart-based algorithms while retaining the same regret as previous studies. Furthermore, our new framework can be used to improve regret bounds of other parametric bandits, including Generalized Linear Bandits (GLB) and Self-Concordant Bandits (SCB). Moreover, we extend our framework to non-stationary Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with function approximation, focusing on Linear Mixture MDP and Multinomial Logit (MNL) Mixture MDP . For both classes, we propose algorithms based on the weighted strategy and establish dynamic regret guarantees using our analysis framework. Index T erms--dynamic regret, non-stationary bandits, discounted factor, online MDPs, function approximation. ON-ST A TIONARY parametric bandits model the sequential decision-making problems where the reward distributions of each arm are structured with an unknown time-varying parameter, which have been extensively studied in recent years [1]-[11] due to their significance in many real-world non-stationary online applications such as recommendation systems [12], [13].

This paper develops a practical framework for using observational data to audit the consumer surplus effects of AI-driven decisions, specifically in targeted pricing and algorithmic lending. Traditional approaches first estimate demand functions and then integrate to compute consumer surplus, but these methods can be challenging to implement in practice due to model misspecification in parametric demand forms and the large data requirements and slow convergence of flexible nonparametric or machine learning approaches. Instead, we exploit the randomness inherent in modern algorithmic pricing, arising from the need to balance exploration and exploitation, and introduce an estimator that avoids explicit estimation and numerical integration of the demand function. Each observed purchase outcome at a randomized price is an unbiased estimate of demand and by carefully reweighting purchase outcomes using novel cumulative propensity weights (CPW), we are able to reconstruct the integral. Building on this idea, we introduce a doubly robust variant named the augmented cumulative propensity weighting (ACPW) estimator that only requires one of either the demand model or the historical pricing policy distribution to be correctly specified. Furthermore, this approach facilitates the use of flexible machine learning methods for estimating consumer surplus, since it achieves fast convergence rates by incorporating an estimate of demand, even when the machine learning estimate has slower convergence rates. Neither of these estimators is a standard application of off-policy evaluation techniques as the target estimand, consumer surplus, is unobserved. To address fairness, we extend this framework to an inequality-aware surplus measure, allowing regulators and firms to quantify the profit-equity trade-off. Finally, we validate our methods through comprehensive numerical studies.

Gradient-based optimization with categorical variables typically relies on score-function estimators, which are unbiased but noisy, or on continuous relaxations that replace the discrete distribution with a smooth surrogate admitting a pathwise (reparameterized) gradient, at the cost of optimizing a biased, temperature-dependent objective. In this paper, we extend this family of relaxations by introducing a diffusion-based soft reparameterization for categorical distributions. For these distributions, the denoiser under a Gaussian noising process admits a closed form and can be computed efficiently, yielding a training-free diffusion sampler through which we can backpropagate. Our experiments show that the proposed reparameterization trick yields competitive or improved optimization performance on various benchmarks.