Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Collision avoidance in the presence of dynamic obstacles in unknown environments is one of the most critical challenges for unmanned systems. In this paper, we present a method that identifies obstacles in terms of ellipsoids to estimate linear and angular obstacle velocities. Our proposed method is based on the idea of any object can be approximately expressed by ellipsoids. To achieve this, we propose a method based on variational Bayesian estimation of Gaussian mixture model, the Kyachiyan algorithm, and a refinement algorithm. Our proposed method does not require knowledge of the number of clusters and can operate in real-time, unlike existing optimization-based methods. In addition, we define an ellipsoid-based feature vector to match obstacles given two timely close point frames. Our method can be applied to any environment with static and dynamic obstacles, including the ones with rotating obstacles. We compare our algorithm with other clustering methods and show that when coupled with a trajectory planner, the overall system can efficiently traverse unknown environments in the presence of dynamic obstacles.

While recent machine learning research has revealed connections between deep generative models such as VAEs and rate-distortion losses used in learned compression, most of this work has focused on images. In a similar spirit, we view recently proposed neural video coding algorithms through the lens of deep autoregressive and latent variable modeling. We present these codecs as instances of a generalized stochastic temporal autoregressive transform, and propose new avenues for further improvements inspired by normalizing flows and structured priors. We propose several architectures that yield state-of-the-art video compression performance on high-resolution video and discuss their tradeoffs and ablations. In particular, we propose (i) improved temporal autoregressive transforms, (ii) improved entropy models with structured and temporal dependencies, and (iii) variable bitrate versions of our algorithms. Since our improvements are compatible with a large class of existing models, we provide further evidence that the generative modeling viewpoint can advance the neural video coding field.

Data-driven soft sensors are essential for achieving accurate perception through reliable state inference. However, developing representative soft sensor models is challenged by issues such as missing labels, domain adaptability, and temporal coherence in data. To address these challenges, we propose a deep Particle Flow Bayes (DPFB) framework for cross-domain soft sensor modeling in the absence of target state labels. In particular, a sequential Bayes objective is first formulated to perform the maximum likelihood estimation underlying the cross-domain soft sensing problem. At the core of the framework, we incorporate a physics-inspired particle flow that optimizes the sequential Bayes objective to perform an exact Bayes update of the model extracted latent and hidden features. As a result, these contributions enable the proposed framework to learn a rich approximate posterior feature representation capable of characterizing complex cross-domain system dynamics and performing effective time series unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA). Finally, we validate the framework on a complex industrial multiphase flow process system with complex dynamics and multiple operating conditions. The results demonstrate that the DPFB framework achieves superior cross-domain soft sensing performance, outperforming state-of-the-art deep UDA and normalizing flow approaches.

Personalized pricing, which involves tailoring prices based on individual characteristics, is commonly used by firms to implement a consumer-specific pricing policy. In this process, buyers can also strategically manipulate their feature data to obtain a lower price, incurring certain manipulation costs. Such strategic behavior can hinder firms from maximizing their profits. In this paper, we study the contextual dynamic pricing problem with strategic buyers. The seller does not observe the buyer's true feature, but a manipulated feature according to buyers' strategic behavior. In addition, the seller does not observe the buyers' valuation of the product, but only a binary response indicating whether a sale happens or not. Recognizing these challenges, we propose a strategic dynamic pricing policy that incorporates the buyers' strategic behavior into the online learning to maximize the seller's cumulative revenue. We first prove that existing non-strategic pricing policies that neglect the buyers' strategic behavior result in a linear $\Omega(T)$ regret with $T$ the total time horizon, indicating that these policies are not better than a random pricing policy. We then establish that our proposed policy achieves a sublinear regret upper bound of $O(\sqrt{T})$. Importantly, our policy is not a mere amalgamation of existing dynamic pricing policies and strategic behavior handling algorithms. Our policy can also accommodate the scenario when the marginal cost of manipulation is unknown in advance. To account for it, we simultaneously estimate the valuation parameter and the cost parameter in the online pricing policy, which is shown to also achieve an $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret bound. Extensive experiments support our theoretical developments and demonstrate the superior performance of our policy compared to other pricing policies that are unaware of the strategic behaviors.

A major challenge in reinforcement learning is to develop practical, sample-efficient algorithms for exploration in high-dimensional domains where generalization and function approximation is required. Low-Rank Markov Decision Processes -- where transition probabilities admit a low-rank factorization based on an unknown feature embedding -- offer a simple, yet expressive framework for RL with function approximation, but existing algorithms are either (1) computationally intractable, or (2) reliant upon restrictive statistical assumptions such as latent variable structure, access to model-based function approximation, or reachability. In this work, we propose the first provably sample-efficient algorithm for exploration in Low-Rank MDPs that is both computationally efficient and model-free, allowing for general function approximation and requiring no additional structural assumptions. Our algorithm, VoX, uses the notion of a generalized optimal design for the feature embedding as an efficiently computable basis for exploration, performing efficient optimal design computation by interleaving representation learning and policy optimization. Our analysis -- which is appealingly simple and modular -- carefully combines several techniques, including a new reduction from optimal design computation to policy optimization based on the Frank-Wolfe method, and an improved analysis of a certain minimax representation learning objective found in prior work.

Prior knowledge and symbolic rules in machine learning are often expressed in the form of label constraints, especially in structured prediction problems. In this work, we compare two common strategies for encoding label constraints in a machine learning pipeline, regularization with constraints and constrained inference, by quantifying their impact on model performance. For regularization, we show that it narrows the generalization gap by precluding models that are inconsistent with the constraints. However, its preference for small violations introduces a bias toward a suboptimal model. For constrained inference, we show that it reduces the population risk by correcting a model's violation, and hence turns the violation into an advantage. Given these differences, we further explore the use of two approaches together and propose conditions for constrained inference to compensate for the bias introduced by regularization, aiming to improve both the model complexity and optimal risk.

Contemporary scientific research is a distributed, collaborative endeavor, carried out by teams of researchers, regulatory institutions, funding agencies, commercial partners, and scientific bodies, all interacting with each other and facing different incentives. To maintain scientific rigor, statistical methods should acknowledge this state of affairs. To this end, we study hypothesis testing when there is an agent (e.g., a researcher or a pharmaceutical company) with a private prior about an unknown parameter and a principal (e.g., a policymaker or regulator) who wishes to make decisions based on the parameter value. The agent chooses whether to run a statistical trial based on their private prior and then the result of the trial is used by the principal to reach a decision. We show how the principal can conduct statistical inference that leverages the information that is revealed by an agent's strategic behavior -- their choice to run a trial or not. In particular, we show how the principal can design a policy to elucidate partial information about the agent's private prior beliefs and use this to control the posterior probability of the null. One implication is a simple guideline for the choice of significance threshold in clinical trials: the type-I error level should be set to be strictly less than the cost of the trial divided by the firm's profit if the trial is successful.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method to optimize costly black-box functions. While traditional BO optimizes each new target task from scratch, meta-learning has emerged as a way to leverage knowledge from related tasks to optimize new tasks faster. However, existing meta-learning BO methods rely on surrogate models that suffer from scalability issues and are sensitive to observations with different scales and noise types across tasks. Moreover, they often overlook the uncertainty associated with task similarity. This leads to unreliable task adaptation when only limited observations are obtained or when the new tasks differ significantly from the related tasks. To address these limitations, we propose a novel meta-learning BO approach that bypasses the surrogate model and directly learns the utility of queries across tasks. Our method explicitly models task uncertainty and includes an auxiliary model to enable robust adaptation to new tasks. Extensive experiments show that our method demonstrates strong anytime performance and outperforms state-of-the-art meta-learning BO methods in various benchmarks.