Statistical Learning
Machine Unlearning of Traffic State Estimation and Prediction
Wang, Xin, Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell, Xuegang, null, Ban, null
Traffic State Estimation and Prediction (TSEP) has been extensively studied to reconstruct traffic state variables (e.g., flow, density, speed, travel time, etc.) using (partial) observed traffic data (Antoniou et al., 2013; Ban et al., 2011; Shi et al., 2021; Li et al., 2020). In recent years, advancements in data collection technologies have enabled TSEP methods to integrate traffic data from diverse sources for more accurate and robust estimation and prediction (Wang et al., 2016; Makridis and Kouvelas, 2023). These data sources can be broadly categorized into infrastructure-collected data and user-contributed data. Infrastructure-collected data typically includes information collected from loop detectors, traffic cameras, and radars installed on roadways or at intersections. In contrast, user-contributed data is derived from individuals, often through vehicles or personal devices, such as GPS traces, vehicle trajectories, and probe data collected via mobile apps or in-vehicle systems.
ADNF-Clustering: An Adaptive and Dynamic Neuro-Fuzzy Clustering for Leukemia Prediction
Aruta, Marco, Listone, Ciro, Murano, Giuseppe, Murano, Aniello
Leukemia diagnosis and monitoring rely increasingly on high-throughput image data, yet conventional clustering methods lack the flexibility to accommodate evolving cellular patterns and quantify uncertainty in real time. We introduce Adaptive and Dynamic Neuro-Fuzzy Clustering, a novel streaming-capable framework that combines Convolutional Neural Network-based feature extraction with an online fuzzy clustering engine. ADNF initializes soft partitions via Fuzzy C-Means, then continuously updates micro-cluster centers, densities, and fuzziness parameters using a Fuzzy Temporal Index (FTI) that measures entropy evolution. A topology refinement stage performs density-weighted merging and entropy-guided splitting to guard against over- and under-segmentation. On the C-NMC leukemia microscopy dataset, our tool achieves a silhouette score of 0.51, demonstrating superior cohesion and separation over static baselines. The method's adaptive uncertainty modeling and label-free operation hold immediate potential for integration within the INFANT pediatric oncology network, enabling scalable, up-to-date support for personalized leukemia management.
Network Inversion for Uncertainty-Aware Out-of-Distribution Detection
Suhail, Pirzada, Afroz, Rehna, Bala, Gouranga, Sethi, Amit
Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and uncertainty estimation (UE) are critical components for building safe machine learning systems, especially in real-world scenarios where unexpected inputs are inevitable. However the two problems have, until recently, separately been addressed. In this work, we propose a novel framework that combines network inversion with classifier training to simultaneously address both OOD detection and uncertainty estimation. For a standard n-class classification task, we extend the classifier to an (n+1)-class model by introducing a "garbage" class, initially populated with random gaussian noise to represent outlier inputs. After each training epoch, we use network inversion to reconstruct input images corresponding to all output classes that initially appear as noisy and incoherent and are therefore excluded to the garbage class for retraining the classifier. This cycle of training, inversion, and exclusion continues iteratively till the inverted samples begin to resemble the in-distribution data more closely, with a significant drop in the uncertainty, suggesting that the classifier has learned to carve out meaningful decision boundaries while sanitising the class manifolds by pushing OOD content into the garbage class. During inference, this training scheme enables the model to effectively detect and reject OOD samples by classifying them into the garbage class. Furthermore, the confidence scores associated with each prediction can be used to estimate uncertainty for both in-distribution and OOD inputs. Our approach is scalable, interpretable, and does not require access to external OOD datasets or post-hoc calibration techniques while providing a unified solution to the dual challenges of OOD detection and uncertainty estimation.
Curvature Dynamic Black-box Attack: revisiting adversarial robustness via dynamic curvature estimation
Adversarial attack reveals the vulnerability of deep learning models. It is assumed that high curvature may give rise to rough decision boundary and thus result in less robust models. However, the most commonly used \textit{curvature} is the curvature of loss function, scores or other parameters from within the model as opposed to decision boundary curvature, since the former can be relatively easily formed using second order derivative. In this paper, we propose a new query-efficient method, dynamic curvature estimation (DCE), to estimate the decision boundary curvature in a black-box setting. Our approach is based on CGBA, a black-box adversarial attack. By performing DCE on a wide range of classifiers, we discovered, statistically, a connection between decision boundary curvature and adversarial robustness. We also propose a new attack method, curvature dynamic black-box attack (CDBA) with improved performance using the estimated curvature.
Monitoring digestate application on agricultural crops using Sentinel-2 Satellite imagery
Kalogeras, Andreas, Bormpoudakis, Dimitrios, Tsardanidis, Iason, Loka, Dimitra A., Kontoes, Charalampos
Abstract--The widespread use of Exogenous Organic Matter in agriculture necessitates monitoring to assess its effects on soil and crop health. This study evaluates optical Sentinel-2 satellite imagery for detecting digestate application, a practice that enhances soil fertility but poses environmental risks like mi-croplastic contamination and nitrogen losses. In the first instance, Sentinel-2 satellite image time series (SITS) analysis of specific indices (EOMI, NDVI, EVI) was used to characterize EOM's spectral behavior after application on the soils of four different crop types in Thessaly, Greece. Furthermore, Machine Learning (ML) models (namely Random Forest, k-NN, Gradient Boosting and a Feed-Forward Neural Network), were used to investigate digestate presence detection, achieving F1-scores up to 0.85. Agricultural systems can benefit from the application of Exogenous Organic Matter (EOM), which not only enhances soil fertility but also supports waste recycling and promotes circular economies [1], [2].
Learning to Rank Critical Road Segments via Heterogeneous Graphs with OD Flow Integration
Xu, Ming, Xiang, Jinrong, Xie, Zilong, Meng, Xiangfu
Existing learning-to-rank methods for road networks often fail to incorporate origin-destination (OD) flows and route information, limiting their ability to model long-range spatial dependencies. To address this gap, we propose HetGL2R, a heterogeneous graph learning framework for ranking road-segment importance. HetGL2R builds a tripartite graph that unifies OD flows, routes, and network topology, and further introduces attribute-guided graphs that elevate node attributes into explicit nodes to model functional similarity. A heterogeneous joint random walk algorithm (HetGWalk) samples both graph types to generate context-rich node sequences. These sequences are encoded with a Transformer to learn embeddings that capture long-range structural dependencies driven by OD demand and route configuration, as well as functional associations derived from attribute similarity. Finally, a listwise ranking strategy with a KL-divergence loss evaluates and ranks segment importance. Experiments on three SUMO-generated simulated networks of different scales show that, against state-of-the-art methods, HetGL2R achieves average improvements of approximately 7.52%, 4.40% and 3.57% in ranking performance. Keywords: Learning to Rank, Heterogeneous Graph, Random Walk, Ranking, Road Networks1. Introduction Efficient and resilient road networks are essential for ensuring smooth urban mobility and public safety. When a single road segment becomes congested or blocked, the resulting disruption often propagates along multiple routes, leading to large-scale delays or even citywide paralysis. Therefore, identifying critical road segments--those whose failure would significantly degrade overall network performance--is of great importance for traffic management and infrastructure planning (Xu et al., 2018). These approaches are intuitive and easy to interpret but fail to incorporate the rich attribute features and dynamic traffic behaviors associated with each road segment. In reality, a segment's criticality depends on multiple factors such as traffic volume, number of lanes, and functional hierarchy, all of which are neglected in purely topological metrics.
Spectral kernel machines with electrically tunable photodetectors Science
We experimentally demonstrated different SKMs to perform machine learning analysis over complex, visible to mid-infrared (MIR) incident spectra, with the readout photocurrent directly providing the final inference. This process mathematically resembles the kernel machine algorithms typically used for digital machine learning, making each photodetector a spectral kernel machine. It can "sniff-and-seek," conceptually inspired by retriever dogs, learning from examples to recognize spectral features within a complex scene. We experimentally demonstrated different SKMs to perform diverse tasks, including visible-band image segmentation, nanoscale-thickness metrology of wafer oxide layers, discrimination of natural and artificial leaves, and identification of leaf hydration levels, achieving high accuracy under blind testing. For the MIR band, an electrically tunable bipolar photodiode made of bP-MoS2 heterostructure was operated at room temperature to identify chemicals and quantify mixture concentrations that were indistinguishable in the visible bands.
Some aspects of robustness in modern Markov Chain Monte Carlo
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a flexible approach to approximate sampling from intractable probability distributions, with a rich theoretical foundation and comprising a wealth of exemplar algorithms. While the qualitative correctness of MCMC algorithms is often easy to ensure, their practical efficiency is contingent on the `target' distribution being reasonably well-behaved. In this work, we concern ourself with the scenario in which this good behaviour is called into question, reviewing an emerging line of work on `robust' MCMC algorithms which can perform acceptably even in the face of certain pathologies. We focus on two particular pathologies which, while simple, can already have dramatic effects on standard `local' algorithms. The first is roughness, whereby the target distribution varies so rapidly that the numerical stability of the algorithm is tenuous. The second is flatness, whereby the landscape of the target distribution is instead so barren and uninformative that one becomes lost in uninteresting parts of the state space. In each case, we formulate the pathology in concrete terms, review a range of proposed algorithmic remedies to the pathology, and outline promising directions for future research.
Estimation in high-dimensional linear regression: Post-Double-Autometrics as an alternative to Post-Double-Lasso
Hué, Sullivan, Laurent, Sébastien, Aiounou, Ulrich, Flachaire, Emmanuel
Post-Double-Lasso is becoming the most popular method for estimating linear regression models with many covariates when the purpose is to obtain an accurate estimate of a parameter of interest, such as an average treatment effect. However, this method can suffer from substantial omitted variable bias in finite sample. We propose a new method called Post-Double-Autometrics, which is based on Autometrics, and show that this method outperforms Post-Double-Lasso.
Maxitive Donsker-Varadhan Formulation for Possibilistic Variational Inference
Singh, Jasraj, Wongso, Shelvia, Houssineau, Jeremie, Chérief-Abdellatif, Badr-Eddine
V ariational inference (VI) is a cornerstone of modern Bayesian learning, enabling approximate inference in complex models that would otherwise be intractable. However, its formulation depends on expectations and divergences defined through high-dimensional integrals, often rendering analytical treatment impossible and necessitating heavy reliance on approximate learning and inference techniques. Possibility theory, an imprecise probability framework, allows to directly model epistemic uncertainty instead of leveraging subjective probabilities. While this framework provides robustness and interpretability under sparse or imprecise information, adapting VI to the possibilistic setting requires rethinking core concepts such as entropy and divergence, which presuppose additivity. In this work, we develop a principled formulation of possibilistic variational inference and apply it to a special class of exponential-family functions, highlighting parallels with their probabilistic counterparts and revealing the distinctive mathematical structures of possibility theory.