We address the problem of quickest change detection in Markov processes with unknown transition kernels. The key idea is to learn the conditional score $\nabla_{\mathbf{y}} \log p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{x})$ directly from sample pairs $( \mathbf{x},\mathbf{y})$, where both $\mathbf{x}$ and $\mathbf{y}$ are high-dimensional data generated by the same transition kernel. In this way, we avoid explicit likelihood evaluation and provide a practical way to learn the transition dynamics. Based on this estimation, we develop a score-based CUSUM procedure that uses conditional Hyvarinen score differences to detect changes in the kernel. To ensure bounded increments, we propose a truncated version of the statistic. With Hoeffding's inequality for uniformly ergodic Markov processes, we prove exponential lower bounds on the mean time to false alarm. We also prove asymptotic upper bounds on detection delay. These results give both theoretical guarantees and practical feasibility for score-based detection in high-dimensional Markov models.

Causal structure learning has long been the central task of inferring causal insights from data. Despite the abundance of real-world processes exhibiting higher-order mechanisms, however, an explicit treatment of interactions in causal discovery has received little attention. In this work, we focus on extending the causal additive model (CAM) to additive models with higher-order interactions. This second level of modularity we introduce to the structure learning problem is most easily represented by a directed acyclic hypergraph which extends the DAG. We introduce the necessary definitions and theoretical tools to handle the novel structure we introduce and then provide identifiability results for the hyper DAG, extending the typical Markov equivalence classes. We next provide insights into why learning the more complex hypergraph structure may actually lead to better empirical results. In particular, more restrictive assumptions like CAM correspond to easier-to-learn hyper DAGs and better finite sample complexity. We finally develop an extension of the greedy CAM algorithm which can handle the more complex hyper DAG search space and demonstrate its empirical usefulness in synthetic experiments.

A common challenge for decision makers is selecting actions whose rewards are unknown and evolve over time based on prior policies. For instance, repeated use may reduce an action's effectiveness (habituation), while inactivity may restore it (recovery). These nonstationarities are captured by the Reducing or Gaining Unknown Efficacy (ROGUE) bandit framework, which models real-world settings such as behavioral health interventions. While existing algorithms can compute sublinear regret policies to optimize these settings, they may not provide sufficient exploration due to overemphasis on exploitation, limiting the ability to estimate population-level effects. This is a challenge of particular interest in micro-randomized trials (MRTs) that aid researchers in developing just-in-time adaptive interventions that have population-level effects while still providing personalized recommendations to individuals. In this paper, we first develop ROGUE-TS, a Thompson Sampling algorithm tailored to the ROGUE framework, and provide theoretical guarantees of sublinear regret. We then introduce a probability clipping procedure to balance personalization and population-level learning, with quantified trade-off that balances regret and minimum exploration probability. Validation on two MRT datasets concerning physical activity promotion and bipolar disorder treatment shows that our methods both achieve lower regret than existing approaches and maintain high statistical power through the clipping procedure without significantly increasing regret. This enables reliable detection of treatment effects while accounting for individual behavioral dynamics. For researchers designing MRTs, our framework offers practical guidance on balancing personalization with statistical validity.

Low-rank structure is a common implicit assumption in many modern reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. For instance, reward-free and goal-conditioned RL methods often presume that the successor measure admits a low-rank representation. In this work, we challenge this assumption by first remarking that the successor measure itself is not approximately low-rank. Instead, we demonstrate that a low-rank structure naturally emerges in the shifted successor measure, which captures the system dynamics after bypassing a few initial transitions. We provide finite-sample performance guarantees for the entry-wise estimation of a low-rank approximation of the shifted successor measure from sampled entries. Our analysis reveals that both the approximation and estimation errors are primarily governed by a newly introduced quantitity: the spectral recoverability of the corresponding matrix. To bound this parameter, we derive a new class of functional inequalities for Markov chains that we call Type II Poincaré inequalities and from which we can quantify the amount of shift needed for effective low-rank approximation and estimation. This analysis shows in particular that the required shift depends on decay of the high-order singular values of the shifted successor measure and is hence typically small in practice. Additionally, we establish a connection between the necessary shift and the local mixing properties of the underlying dynamical system, which provides a natural way of selecting the shift. Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with experiments, and demonstrate that shifting the successor measure indeed leads to improved performance in goal-conditioned RL.

The exponential growth of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites has revolutionised Earth Observation (EO) missions, addressing challenges in climate monitoring, disaster management, and more. However, autonomous coordination in multi-satellite systems remains a fundamental challenge. Traditional optimisation approaches struggle to handle the real-time decision-making demands of dynamic EO missions, necessitating the use of Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). In this paper, we investigate RL-based autonomous EO mission planning by modelling single-satellite operations and extending to multi-satellite constellations using MARL frameworks. We address key challenges, including energy and data storage limitations, uncertainties in satellite observations, and the complexities of decentralised coordination under partial observability. By leveraging a near-realistic satellite simulation environment, we evaluate the training stability and performance of state-of-the-art MARL algorithms, including PPO, IPPO, MAPPO, and HAPPO. Our results demonstrate that MARL can effectively balance imaging and resource management while addressing non-stationarity and reward interdependency in multi-satellite coordination. The insights gained from this study provide a foundation for autonomous satellite operations, offering practical guidelines for improving policy learning in decentralised EO missions.

This paper addresses a motion planning problem to achieve spatio-temporal-logical tasks, expressed by syntactically co-safe linear temporal logic specifications (scLTL\next), in uncertain environments. Here, the uncertainty is modeled as some probabilistic knowledge on the semantic labels of the environment. For example, the task is "first go to region 1, then go to region 2"; however, the exact locations of regions 1 and 2 are not known a priori, instead a probabilistic belief is available. We propose a novel automata-theoretic approach, where a special product automaton is constructed to capture the uncertainty related to semantic labels, and a reward function is designed for each edge of this product automaton. The proposed algorithm utilizes value iteration for online replanning. We show some theoretical results and present some simulations/experiments to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across benchmarks--from knowledge quizzes and math reasoning to web-agent tasks--but these tests occur in static settings, lacking real dynamics and uncertainty. Consequently, they evaluate isolated reasoning or problem-solving rather than decision-making under uncertainty. To address this, we introduce LiveTradeBench, a live trading environment for evaluating LLM agents in realistic and evolving markets. LiveTradeBench follows three design principles: (i) Live data streaming of market prices and news, eliminating dependence on offline backtesting and preventing information leakage while capturing real-time uncertainty; (ii) a portfolio-management abstraction that extends control from single-asset actions to multi-asset allocation, integrating risk management and cross-asset reasoning; and (iii) multi-market evaluation across structurally distinct environments--U.S. stocks and Polymarket prediction markets--differing in volatility, liquidity, and information flow. At each step, an agent observes prices, news, and its portfolio, then outputs percentage allocations that balance risk and return. Using LiveTradeBench, we run 50-day live evaluations of 21 LLMs across families. Results show that (1) high LMArena scores do not imply superior trading outcomes; (2) models display distinct portfolio styles reflecting risk appetite and reasoning dynamics; and (3) some LLMs effectively leverage live signals to adapt decisions. These findings expose a gap between static evaluation and real-world competence, motivating benchmarks that test sequential decision making and consistency under live uncertainty.

CLAX is a JAX-based library that implements classic click models using modern gradient-based optimization. While neural click models have emerged over the past decade, complex click models based on probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) have not systematically adopted gradient-based optimization, preventing practitioners from leveraging modern deep learning frameworks while preserving the interpretability of classic models. CLAX addresses this gap by replacing EM-based optimization with direct gradient-based optimization in a numerically stable manner. The framework's modular design enables the integration of any component, from embeddings and deep networks to custom modules, into classic click models for end-to-end optimization. We demonstrate CLAX's efficiency by running experiments on the full Baidu-ULTR dataset comprising over a billion user sessions in $\approx$ 2 hours on a single GPU, orders of magnitude faster than traditional EM approaches. CLAX implements ten classic click models, serving both industry practitioners seeking to understand user behavior and improve ranking performance at scale and researchers developing new click models. CLAX is available at: https://github.com/philipphager/clax

In this study, a modular, data-free pipeline for multi-label intention recognition is proposed for agentic AI applications in transportation. Unlike traditional intent recognition systems that depend on large, annotated corpora and often struggle with fine-grained, multi-label discrimination, our approach eliminates the need for costly data collection while enhancing the accuracy of multi-label intention understanding. Specifically, the overall pipeline, named DMTC, consists of three steps: 1) using prompt engineering to guide large language models (LLMs) to generate diverse synthetic queries in different transport scenarios; 2) encoding each textual query with a Sentence-T5 model to obtain compact semantic embeddings; 3) training a lightweight classifier using a novel online focal-contrastive (OFC) loss that emphasizes hard samples and maximizes inter-class separability. The applicability of the proposed pipeline is demonstrated in an agentic AI application in the maritime transportation context. Extensive experiments show that DMTC achieves a Hamming loss of 5.35% and an AUC of 95.92%, outperforming state-of-the-art multi-label classifiers and recent end-to-end SOTA LLM-based baselines. Further analysis reveals that Sentence-T5 embeddings improve subset accuracy by at least 3.29% over alternative encoders, and integrating the OFC loss yields an additional 0.98% gain compared to standard contrastive objectives. In conclusion, our system seamlessly routes user queries to task-specific modules (e.g., ETA information, traffic risk evaluation, and other typical scenarios in the transportation domain), laying the groundwork for fully autonomous, intention-aware agents without costly manual labelling.

Formal explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) offers unique theoretical guarantees of rigor when compared to other non-formal methods of explainability. However, little attention has been given to the validation of practical implementations of formal explainers. This paper develops a novel methodology for validating formal explainers and reports on the assessment of the publicly available formal explainer PyXAI. The paper documents the existence of incorrect explanations computed by PyXAI on most of the datasets analyzed in the experiments, thereby confirming the importance of the proposed novel methodology for the validation of formal explainers.