Occupancy mapping has been widely utilized to represent the surroundings for autonomous robots to perform tasks such as navigation and manipulation. While occupancy mapping in 2-D environments has been well-studied, there have been few approaches suitable for 3-D dynamic occupancy mapping which is essential for aerial robots. This paper presents a novel 3-D dynamic occupancy mapping algorithm called DS-K3DOM. We first establish a Bayesian method to sequentially update occupancy maps for a stream of measurements based on the random finite set theory. Then, we approximate it with particles in the Dempster-Shafer domain to enable real-time computation. Moreover, the algorithm applies kernel-based inference with Dirichlet basic belief assignment to enable dense mapping from sparse measurements. The efficacy of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through simulations and real experiments.

ShiftMatch is inspired by the training-data-dependent "EmpCov" priors from Izmailov et al. (2021a), and efficiently matches test-time spatial correlations to those at training time. Critically, ShiftMatch is designed to leave the neural network's training time likelihood unchanged, allowing it to use publicly available samples from pre-trained BNNs. Using pre-trained HMC samples, ShiftMatch gives strong performance improvements on CIFAR-10-C, outperforms EmpCov priors (though ShiftMatch uses extra information from a minibatch of corrupted test points), and is perhaps the first Bayesian method capable of convincingly outperforming plain deep ensembles. Neural networks are increasingly being deployed in real-world, safety-critical settings such as selfdriving cars (Bojarski et al., 2016) and medical imaging (Esteva et al., 2017). BNNs are indeed highly effective at improving uncertainty estimation in the in-distribution setting, where the train and test distributions are equal (Zhang et al., 2019; Izmailov et al., 2021b). Critically, we also need to continue to perform effectively (or at least degrade gracefully) when presented with corrupted inputs. Superficially, BNNs seem like a good choice for this setting: we would hope they would give more uncertainty in regions far from the training data, and thus degrade gracefully as inputs become gradually more corrupted, and thus diverge from the training data. However, recent work has highlighted that BNNs including with gold-standard Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) inference can fail to generalise to corrupted images, potentially performing worse than ensembles (Lakshminarayanan et al., 2017; Ovadia et al., 2019; Izmailov et al., 2021a;b). Izmailov et al. (2021a) gave a key intuition as to why this failure might occur. In particular, consider directions in input space with zero variance under the training data.

Normalizing Flows have emerged as a powerful brand of generative models, as they not only allow for efficient sampling of complicated target distributions, but also deliver density estimation by construction. We propose here an in-depth comparison of coupling and autoregressive flows, both of the affine and rational quadratic spline type, considering four different architectures: Real-valued Non-Volume Preserving (RealNVP), Masked Autoregressive Flow (MAF), Coupling Rational Quadratic Spline (C-RQS), and Autoregressive Rational Quadratic Spline (A-RQS). We focus on different target distributions of increasing complexity with dimensionality ranging from 4 to 1000. The performances are discussed in terms of different figures of merit: the one-dimensional Wasserstein distance, the one-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, the Frobenius norm of the difference between correlation matrices, and the training time. Our results indicate that the A-RQS algorithm stands out both in terms of accuracy and training speed. Nonetheless, all the algorithms are generally able, without much fine-tuning, to learn complex distributions with limited training data and in a reasonable time, of the order of hours on a Tesla V100 GPU. The only exception is the C-RQS, which takes significantly longer to train, and does not always provide good accuracy. All algorithms have been implemented using TensorFlow2 and TensorFlow Probability and made available on GitHub.

Existing active strategies for training surrogate models yield accurate structural reliability estimates by aiming at design space regions in the vicinity of a specified limit state function. In many practical engineering applications, various damage conditions, e.g. repair, failure, should be probabilistically characterized, thus demanding the estimation of multiple performance functions. In this work, we investigate the capability of active learning approaches for efficiently selecting training samples under a limited computational budget while still preserving the accuracy associated with multiple surrogated limit states. Specifically, PC-Kriging-based surrogate models are actively trained considering a variance correction derived from leave-one-out cross-validation error information, whereas the sequential learning scheme relies on U-function-derived metrics. The proposed active learning approaches are tested in a highly nonlinear structural reliability setting, whereas in a more practical application, failure and repair events are stochastically predicted in the aftermath of a ship collision against an offshore wind substructure. The results show that a balanced computational budget administration can be effectively achieved by successively targeting the specified multiple limit state functions within a unified active learning scheme.

Inferring causal structures from experimentation is a central task in many domains. For example, in biology, recent advances allow us to obtain single-cell expression data under multiple interventions such as drugs or gene knockouts. However, the targets of the interventions are often uncertain or unknown and the number of observations limited. As a result, standard causal discovery methods can no longer be reliably used. To fill this gap, we propose a Bayesian framework (BaCaDI) for discovering and reasoning about the causal structure that underlies data generated under various unknown experimental or interventional conditions. BaCaDI is fully differentiable, which allows us to infer the complex joint posterior over the intervention targets and the causal structure via efficient gradient-based variational inference. In experiments on synthetic causal discovery tasks and simulated gene-expression data, BaCaDI outperforms related methods in identifying causal structures and intervention targets.

In sponsored search advertising (SSA), keywords serve as the basic unit of business model, linking three stakeholders: consumers, advertisers and search engines. This paper presents an overarching framework for keyword decisions that highlights the touchpoints in search advertising management, including four levels of keyword decisions, i.e., domain-specific keyword pool generation, keyword targeting, keyword assignment and grouping, and keyword adjustment. Using this framework, we review the state-of-the-art research literature on keyword decisions with respect to techniques, input features and evaluation metrics. Finally, we discuss evolving issues and identify potential gaps that exist in the literature and outline novel research perspectives for future exploration.

Training deep graph neural networks (GNNs) poses a challenging task, as the performance of GNNs may suffer from the number of hidden message-passing layers. The literature has focused on the proposals of {over-smoothing} and {under-reaching} to explain the performance deterioration of deep GNNs. In this paper, we propose a new explanation for such deteriorated performance phenomenon, {mis-simplification}, that is, mistakenly simplifying graphs by preventing self-loops and forcing edges to be unweighted. We show that such simplifying can reduce the potential of message-passing layers to capture the structural information of graphs. In view of this, we propose a new framework, edge enhanced graph neural network (EEGNN). EEGNN uses the structural information extracted from the proposed Dirichlet mixture Poisson graph model (DMPGM), a Bayesian nonparametric model for graphs, to improve the performance of various deep message-passing GNNs. We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo inference framework for DMPGM. Experiments over different datasets show that our method achieves considerable performance increase compared to baselines.

Multi-agent robotic systems are increasingly operating in real-world environments in close proximity to humans, yet are largely controlled by policy models with inscrutable deep neural network representations. We introduce a method for incorporating interpretable concepts from a domain expert into models trained through multi-agent reinforcement learning, by requiring the model to first predict such concepts then utilize them for decision making. This allows an expert to both reason about the resulting concept policy models in terms of these high-level concepts at run-time, as well as intervene and correct mispredictions to improve performance. We show that this yields improved interpretability and training stability, with benefits to policy performance and sample efficiency in a simulated and real-world cooperative-competitive multi-agent game.

In the field of health-care and bio-medical research, understanding the relationship between the symptoms of diseases is crucial for early diagnosis and determining hidden relationships between diseases. The study aimed to understand the extent of symptom types in disease prediction tasks. In this research, we analyze a pre-generated symptom-based human disease dataset and demonstrate the degree of predictability for each disease based on the Convolutional Neural Network and the Support Vector Machine. Ambiguity of disease is studied using the K-Means and the Principal Component Analysis. Our results indicate that machine learning can potentially diagnose diseases with the 98-100% accuracy in the early stage, taking the characteristics of symptoms into account. Our result highlights that types of unusual symptoms are a good proxy for disease early identification accurately. We also highlight that unusual symptoms increase the accuracy of the disease prediction task.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a prominent representation of probability distributions with tractable inference. While parameter learning in PCs is rigorously studied, structure learning is often more based on heuristics than on principled objectives. In this paper, we develop Bayesian structure scores for deterministic PCs, i.e., the structure likelihood with parameters marginalized out, which are well known as rigorous objectives for structure learning in probabilistic graphical models. When used within a greedy cutset algorithm, our scores effectively protect against overfitting and yield a fast and almost hyper-parameter-free structure learner, distinguishing it from previous approaches. In experiments, we achieve good trade-offs between training time and model fit in terms of log-likelihood. Moreover, the principled nature of Bayesian scores unlocks PCs for accommodating frameworks such as structural expectation-maximization.