Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

This manuscripts contains the proofs for "A Primal-Dual Message-Passing Algorithm for Approximated Large Scale Structured Prediction".

NewsFinder automates the steps involved in finding, selecting, categorizing, and publishing news stories that meet relevance criteria for the Artificial Intelligence community. The software combines a broad search of online news sources with topic-specific trained models and heuristics. Since August 2010, the program has been used to operate the AI in the News service that is part of the AAAI AITopics website.

We consider the problem of function estimation in the case where an underlying causal model can be inferred. This has implications for popular scenarios such as covariate shift, concept drift, transfer learning and semi-supervised learning. We argue that causal knowledge may facilitate some approaches for a given problem, and rule out others. In particular, we formulate a hypothesis for when semi-supervised learning can help, and corroborate it with empirical results.

In this work, we develop a simple algorithm for semi-supervised regression. The key idea is to use the top eigenfunctions of integral operator derived from both labeled and unlabeled examples as the basis functions and learn the prediction function by a simple linear regression. We show that under appropriate assumptions about the integral operator, this approach is able to achieve an improved regression error bound better than existing bounds of supervised learning. We also verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm by an empirical study.

In this paper we propose a unified framework for structured prediction with latent variables which includes hidden conditional random fields and latent structured support vector machines as special cases. We describe a local entropy approximation for this general formulation using duality, and derive an efficient message passing algorithm that is guaranteed to converge. We demonstrate its effectiveness in the tasks of image segmentation as well as 3D indoor scene understanding from single images, showing that our approach is superior to latent structured support vector machines and hidden conditional random fields.

Structured learning is appropriate when predicting structured outputs such as trees, graphs, or sequences. Most prior work requires the training set to consist of complete trees, graphs or sequences. Specifying such detailed ground truth can be tedious or infeasible for large outputs. Our main contribution is a large margin formulation that makes structured learning from only partially annotated data possible. The resulting optimization problem is non-convex, yet can be efficiently solve by concave-convex procedure (CCCP) with novel speedup strategies. We apply our method to a challenging tracking-by-assignment problem of a variable number of divisible objects. On this benchmark, using only 25% of a full annotation we achieve a performance comparable to a model learned with a full annotation. Finally, we offer a unifying perspective of previous work using the hinge, ramp, or max loss for structured learning, followed by an empirical comparison on their practical performance.

We propose Coactive Learning as a model of interaction between a learning system and a human user, where both have the common goal of providing results of maximum utility to the user. At each step, the system (e.g. search engine) receives a context (e.g. query) and predicts an object (e.g. ranking). The user responds by correcting the system if necessary, providing a slightly improved -- but not necessarily optimal -- object as feedback. We argue that such feedback can often be inferred from observable user behavior, for example, from clicks in web-search. Evaluating predictions by their cardinal utility to the user, we propose efficient learning algorithms that have ${\cal O}(\frac{1}{\sqrt{T}})$ average regret, even though the learning algorithm never observes cardinal utility values as in conventional online learning. We demonstrate the applicability of our model and learning algorithms on a movie recommendation task, as well as ranking for web-search.

We consider a framework for structured prediction based on search in the space of complete structured outputs. Given a structured input, an output is produced by running a time-bounded search procedure guided by a learned cost function, and then returning the least cost output uncovered during the search. This framework can be instantiated for a wide range of search spaces and search procedures, and easily incorporates arbitrary structured-prediction loss functions. In this paper, we make two main technical contributions. First, we define the limited-discrepancy search space over structured outputs, which is able to leverage powerful classification learning algorithms to improve the search space quality. Second, we give a generic cost function learning approach, where the key idea is to learn a cost function that attempts to mimic the behavior of conducting searches guided by the true loss function. Our experiments on six benchmark domains demonstrate that using our framework with only a small amount of search is sufficient for significantly improving on state-of-the-art structured-prediction performance.

The Yarowsky algorithm is a rule-based semi-supervised learning algorithm that has been successfully applied to some problems in computational linguistics. The algorithm was not mathematically well understood until (Abney 2004) which analyzed some specific variants of the algorithm, and also proposed some new algorithms for bootstrapping. In this paper, we extend Abney's work and show that some of his proposed algorithms actually optimize (an upper-bound on) an objective function based on a new definition of cross-entropy which is based on a particular instantiation of the Bregman distance between probability distributions. Moreover, we suggest some new algorithms for rule-based semi-supervised learning and show connections with harmonic functions and minimum multi-way cuts in graph-based semi-supervised learning.