An increasingly common setting in machine learning involves multiple parties, each with their own data, who want to jointly make predictions on future test points. Agents wish to benefit from the collective expertise of the full set of agents to make better predictions than they would individually, but may not be willing to release labeled data or model parameters.

When the collected dataset is good, i.e., mostly

Ensemble learning is traditionally justified as a variance-reduction strategy, explaining its strong performance for unstable predictors such as decision trees. This explanation, however, does not account for ensembles constructed from intrinsically stable estimators-including smoothing splines, kernel ridge regression, Gaussian process regression, and other regularized reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) methods whose variance is already tightly controlled by regularization and spectral shrinkage. This paper develops a general weighting theory for ensemble learning that moves beyond classical variance-reduction arguments. We formalize ensembles as linear operators acting on a hypothesis space and endow the space of weighting sequences with geometric and spectral constraints. Within this framework, we derive a refined bias-variance approximation decomposition showing how non-uniform, structured weights can outperform uniform averaging by reshaping approximation geometry and redistributing spectral complexity, even when variance reduction is negligible. Our main results provide conditions under which structured weighting provably dominates uniform ensembles, and show that optimal weights arise as solutions to constrained quadratic programs. Classical averaging, stacking, and recently proposed Fibonacci-based ensembles appear as special cases of this unified theory, which further accommodates geometric, sub-exponential, and heavy-tailed weighting laws. Overall, the work establishes a principled foundation for structure-driven ensemble learning, explaining why ensembles remain effective for smooth, low-variance base learners and setting the stage for distribution-adaptive and dynamically evolving weighting schemes developed in subsequent work.

Nature rarely reveals her secrets bluntly, yet in the Fibonacci sequence she grants us a glimpse of her quiet architecture of growth, harmony, and recursive stability \citep{Koshy2001Fibonacci, Livio2002GoldenRatio}. From spiral galaxies to the unfolding of leaves, this humble sequence reflects a universal grammar of balance. In this work, we introduce \emph{Fibonacci Ensembles}, a mathematically principled yet philosophically inspired framework for ensemble learning that complements and extends classical aggregation schemes such as bagging, boosting, and random forests \citep{Breiman1996Bagging, Breiman2001RandomForests, Friedman2001GBM, Zhou2012Ensemble, HastieTibshiraniFriedman2009ESL}. Two intertwined formulations unfold: (1) the use of normalized Fibonacci weights -- tempered through orthogonalization and Rao--Blackwell optimization -- to achieve systematic variance reduction among base learners, and (2) a second-order recursive ensemble dynamic that mirrors the Fibonacci flow itself, enriching representational depth beyond classical boosting. The resulting methodology is at once rigorous and poetic: a reminder that learning systems flourish when guided by the same intrinsic harmonies that shape the natural world. Through controlled one-dimensional regression experiments using both random Fourier feature ensembles \citep{RahimiRecht2007RFF} and polynomial ensembles, we exhibit regimes in which Fibonacci weighting matches or improves upon uniform averaging and interacts in a principled way with orthogonal Rao--Blackwellization. These findings suggest that Fibonacci ensembles form a natural and interpretable design point within the broader theory of ensemble learning.

Aligning language models (LMs) to human preferences has emerged as a critical pursuit, enabling these models to better serve diverse user needs. Existing methods primarily focus on optimizing LMs for a single reward function, limiting their adaptability to varied objectives. Here, we propose $\textbf{multi-objective decoding~(MOD)}$, a decoding-time algorithm that outputs the next token from a linear combination of predictions of all base models, for any given weighting over different objectives.We exploit a common form among a family of $f$-divergence regularized alignment approaches (such as PPO, DPO, and their variants) to identify a closed-form solution by Legendre transform, and derive an efficient decoding strategy.Theoretically, we show why existing approaches can be sub-optimal even in natural settings and obtain optimality guarantees for our method.Empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. For example, compared to a parameter-merging baseline, MOD achieves 12.8\% overall reward improvement when equally optimizing towards $3$ objectives. Moreover, we experiment with MOD on combining three fully-finetuned LMs of different model sizes, each aimed at different objectives such as safety, coding, and general user preference. Unlike traditional methods that require careful curation of a mixture of datasets to achieve comprehensive improvement, we can quickly experiment with preference weightings using MOD to find the best combination of models.

Policy gradient methods are widely used for control in reinforcement learning, particularly for the continuous action setting. There have been a host of theoretically sound algorithms proposed for the on-policy setting, due to the existence of the policy gradient theorem which provides a simplified form for the gradient. In off-policy learning, however, where the behaviour policy is not necessarily attempting to learn and follow the optimal policy for the given task, the existence of such a theorem has been elusive. In this work, we solve this open problem by providing the first off-policy policy gradient theorem. The key to the derivation is the use of emphatic weightings. We develop a new actor-critic algorithm--called Actor Critic with Emphatic weightings (ACE)--that approximates the simplified gradients provided by the theorem. We demonstrate in a simple counterexample that previous off-policy policy gradient methods--particularly OffPAC and DPG--converge to the wrong solution whereas ACE finds the optimal solution.

The advent of deep learning algorithms for mobile devices and sensors has led to a dramatic expansion in the availability and number of systems trained on a wide range of machine learning tasks, creating a host of opportunities and challenges in the realm of transfer learning. Currently, most transfer learning methods require some kind of control over the systems learned, either by enforcing constraints during the source training, or through the use of a joint optimization objective between tasks that requires all data be co-located for training. However, for practical, privacy, or other reasons, in a variety of applications we may have no control over the individual source task training, nor access to source training samples. Instead we only have access to features pre-trained on such data as the output of black-boxes.'' For such scenarios, we consider the multi-source learning problem of training a classifier using an ensemble of pre-trained neural networks for a set of classes that have not been observed by any of the source networks, and for which we have very few training samples. We show that by using these distributed networks as feature extractors, we can train an effective classifier in a computationally-efficient manner using tools from (nonlinear) maximal correlation analysis. In particular, we develop a method we refer to as maximal correlation weighting (MCW) to build the required target classifier from an appropriate weighting of the feature functions from the source networks. We illustrate the effectiveness of the resulting classifier on datasets derived from the CIFAR-100, Stanford Dogs, and Tiny ImageNet datasets, and, in addition, use the methodology to characterize the relative value of different source tasks in learning a target task.

This paper discusses model estimation in offline model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL), which is important for subsequent policy improvement using an estimated model. From the viewpoint of covariate shift, a natural idea is model estimation weighted by the ratio of the state-action distributions of offline data and real future data. However, estimating such a natural weight is one of the main challenges for off-policy evaluation, which is not easy to use. As an artificial alternative, this paper considers weighting with the state-action distribution ratio of offline data and simulated future data, which can be estimated relatively easily by standard density ratio estimation techniques for supervised learning. Based on the artificial weight, this paper defines a loss function for offline MBRL and presents an algorithm to optimize it. Weighting with the artificial weight is justified as evaluating an upper bound of the policy evaluation error. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of weighting with the artificial weight.

QMIX is a popular $Q$-learning algorithm for cooperative MARL in the centralised training and decentralised execution paradigm. In order to enable easy decentralisation, QMIX restricts the joint action $Q$-values it can represent to be a monotonic mixing of each agent's utilities. However, this restriction prevents it from representing value functions in which an agent's ordering over its actions can depend on other agents' actions. To analyse this representational limitation, we first formalise the objective QMIX optimises, which allows us to view QMIX as an operator that first computes the $Q$-learning targets and then projects them into the space representable by QMIX. This projection returns a representable $Q$-value that minimises the unweighted squared error across all joint actions. We show in particular that this projection can fail to recover the optimal policy even with access to $Q^*$, which primarily stems from the equal weighting placed on each joint action. We rectify this by introducing a weighting into the projection, in order to place more importance on the better joint actions. We propose two weighting schemes and prove that they recover the correct maximal action for any joint action $Q$-values, and therefore for $Q^*$ as well. Based on our analysis and results in the tabular setting we introduce two scalable versions of our algorithm, Centrally-Weighted (CW) QMIX and Optimistically-Weighted (OW) QMIX and demonstrate improved performance on both predator-prey and challenging multi-agent StarCraft benchmark tasks (Samvelyan et al., 2019).

We present a novel analysis of the expected risk of weighted majority vote in multiclass classification. The analysis takes correlation of predictions by ensemble members into account and provides a bound that is amenable to efficient minimization, which yields improved weighting for the majority vote. We also provide a specialized version of our bound for binary classification, which allows to exploit additional unlabeled data for tighter risk estimation. In experiments, we apply the bound to improve weighting of trees in random forests and show that, in contrast to the commonly used first order bound, minimization of the new bound typically does not lead to degradation of the test error of the ensemble.