Single-photon Lidar imaging offers a significant advantage in 3D imaging due to its high resolution and long-range capabilities, however it is challenging to apply in noisy environments with multiple targets per pixel. To tackle these challenges, several methods have been proposed. Statistical methods demonstrate interpretability on the inferred parameters, but they are often limited in their ability to handle complex scenes. Deep learning-based methods have shown superior performance in terms of accuracy and robustness, but they lack interpretability or they are limited to a single-peak per pixel. In this paper, we propose a deep unrolling algorithm for dual-peak single-photon Lidar imaging. We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian model for multiple targets and propose a neural network that unrolls the underlying statistical method. To support multiple targets, we adopt a dual depth maps representation and exploit geometric deep learning to extract features from the point cloud. The proposed method takes advantages of statistical methods and learning-based methods in terms of accuracy and quantifying uncertainty. The experimental results on synthetic and real data demonstrate the competitive performance when compared to existing methods, while also providing uncertainty information.

The BI_RADS score is a probabilistic reporting tool used by radiologists to express the level of uncertainty in predicting breast cancer based on some morphological features in mammography images. There is a significant variability in describing masses which sometimes leads to BI_RADS misclassification. Using a BI_RADS prediction system is required to support the final radiologist decisions. In this study, the uncertainty information extracted by a Bayesian deep learning model is utilized to predict the BI_RADS score. The investigation results based on the pathology information demonstrate that the f1-scores of the predictions of the radiologist are 42.86%, 48.33% and 48.28%, meanwhile, the f1-scores of the model performance are 73.33%, 59.60% and 59.26% in the BI_RADS 2, 3 and 5 dataset samples, respectively. Also, the model can distinguish malignant from benign samples in the BI_RADS 0 category of the used dataset with an accuracy of 75.86% and correctly identify all malignant samples as BI_RADS 5. The Grad-CAM visualization shows the model pays attention to the morphological features of the lesions. Therefore, this study shows the uncertainty-aware Bayesian Deep Learning model can report his uncertainty about the malignancy of a lesion based on morphological features, like a radiologist.

Federated Learning (FL) is a collaborative machine learning paradigm for enhancing data privacy preservation. Its privacy-preserving nature complicates the explanation of the decision-making processes and the evaluation of the reliability of the generated explanations. In this paper, we propose the Uncertainty-aware eXplainable Federated Learning (UncertainXFL) to address these challenges. It generates explanations for decision-making processes under FL settings and provides information regarding the uncertainty of these explanations. UncertainXFL is the first framework to explicitly offer uncertainty evaluation for explanations within the FL context. Explanatory information is initially generated by the FL clients and then aggregated by the server in a comprehensive and conflict-free manner during FL training. The quality of the explanations, including the uncertainty score and tested validity, guides the FL training process by prioritizing clients with the most reliable explanations through higher weights during model aggregation. Extensive experimental evaluation results demonstrate that UncertainXFL achieves superior model accuracy and explanation accuracy, surpassing the current state-of-the-art model that does not incorporate uncertainty information by 2.71% and 1.77%, respectively. By integrating and quantifying uncertainty in the data into the explanation process, UncertainXFL not only clearly presents the explanation alongside its uncertainty, but also leverages this uncertainty to guide the FL training process, thereby enhancing the robustness and reliability of the resulting models.

Agents in real-world scenarios like automated driving deal with uncertainty in their environment, in particular due to perceptual uncertainty. Although, reinforcement learning is dedicated to autonomous decision-making under uncertainty these algorithms are typically not informed about the uncertainty currently contained in their environment. On the other hand, uncertainty estimation for perception itself is typically directly evaluated in the perception domain, e.g., in terms of false positive detection rates or calibration errors based on camera images. Its use for deciding on goal-oriented actions remains largely unstudied. In this paper, we investigate how an agent's behavior is influenced by an uncertain perception and how this behavior changes if information about this uncertainty is available. Therefore, we consider a proxy task, where the agent is rewarded for driving a route as fast as possible without colliding with other road users. For controlled experiments, we introduce uncertainty in the observation space by perturbing the perception of the given agent while informing the latter. Our experiments show that an unreliable observation space modeled by a perturbed perception leads to a defensive driving behavior of the agent. Furthermore, when adding the information about the current uncertainty directly to the observation space, the agent adapts to the specific situation and in general accomplishes its task faster while, at the same time, accounting for risks.

Industrial robotics demands significant energy to operate, making energy-reduction methodologies increasingly important. Strategies for planning minimum-energy trajectories typically involve solving nonlinear optimal control problems (OCPs), which rarely cope with real-time requirements. In this paper, we propose a paradigm for generating near minimum-energy trajectories for manipulators by learning from optimal solutions. Our paradigm leverages a residual learning approach, which embeds boundary conditions while focusing on learning only the adjustments needed to steer a standard solution to an optimal one. Compared to a computationally expensive OCP-based planner, our paradigm achieves 87.3% of the performance near the training dataset and 50.8% far from the dataset, while being two to three orders of magnitude faster.

Accurate uncertainty information associated with essential climate variables (ECVs) is crucial for reliable climate modeling and understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of the Earth system. In recent years, geoscience and climate scientists have benefited from rapid progress in deep learning to advance the estimation of ECV products with improved accuracy. However, the quantification of uncertainties associated with the output of such deep learning models has yet to be thoroughly adopted. This survey explores the types of uncertainties associated with ECVs estimated from deep learning and the techniques to quantify them. The focus is on highlighting the importance of quantifying uncertainties inherent in ECV estimates, considering the dynamic and multifaceted nature of climate data. The survey starts by clarifying the definition of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties and their roles in a typical satellite observation processing workflow, followed by bridging the gap between conventional statistical and deep learning views on uncertainties. Then, we comprehensively review the existing techniques for quantifying uncertainties associated with deep learning algorithms, focusing on their application in ECV studies. The specific need for modification to fit the requirements from both the Earth observation side and the deep learning side in such interdisciplinary tasks is discussed. Finally, we demonstrate our findings with two ECV examples, snow cover and terrestrial water storage, and provide our perspectives for future research.

This article presents a family of Stochastic Cartographic Occupancy Prediction Engines (SCOPEs) that enable mobile robots to predict the future states of complex dynamic environments. They do this by accounting for the motion of the robot itself, the motion of dynamic objects, and the geometry of static objects in the scene, and they generate a range of possible future states of the environment. These prediction algorithms are software-optimized for real-time performance for navigation in crowded dynamic scenes, achieving 10 times faster inference speed and 3 times less memory usage than the original engines. Three simulated and real-world datasets collected by different robot models are used to demonstrate that these proposed prediction algorithms are able to achieve more accurate and robust stochastic prediction performance than other algorithms. Furthermore, a series of simulation and hardware navigation experiments demonstrate that the proposed predictive uncertainty-aware navigation framework with these stochastic prediction engines is able to improve the safe navigation performance of current state-of-the-art model- and learning-based control policies.

Self-training is a powerful approach to deep learning. The key process is to find a pseudo-label for modeling. However, previous self-training algorithms suffer from the over-confidence issue brought by the hard labels, even some confidence-related regularizers cannot comprehensively catch the uncertainty. Therefore, we propose a new self-training framework to combine uncertainty information of both model and dataset. Specifically, we propose to use Expectation-Maximization (EM) to smooth the labels and comprehensively estimate the uncertainty information. We further design a basis extraction network to estimate the initial basis from the dataset. The obtained basis with uncertainty can be filtered based on uncertainty information. It can then be transformed into the real hard label to iteratively update the model and basis in the retraining process.

AI Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has the potential to improve human decision-making beyond AI predictions alone by providing additional probabilistic information to users. The majority of past research on AI and human decision-making has concentrated on model explainability and interpretability, with little focus on understanding the potential impact of UQ on human decision-making. We evaluated the impact on human decision-making for instance-level UQ, calibrated using a strict scoring rule, in two online behavioral experiments. In the first experiment, our results showed that UQ was beneficial for decision-making performance compared to only AI predictions. In the second experiment, we found UQ had generalizable benefits for decision-making across a variety of representations for probabilistic information. These results indicate that implementing high quality, instance-level UQ for AI may improve decision-making with real systems compared to AI predictions alone.

Unreliable predictions can occur when using artificial intelligence (AI) systems with negative consequences for downstream applications, particularly when employed for decision-making. Conformal prediction provides a model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be applied to any dataset, irrespective of its distribution, post hoc. In contrast to other pixel-level uncertainty quantification methods, conformal prediction operates without requiring access to the underlying model and training dataset, concurrently offering statistically valid and informative prediction regions, all while maintaining computational efficiency. In response to the increased need to report uncertainty alongside point predictions, we bring attention to the promise of conformal prediction within the domain of Earth Observation (EO) applications. To accomplish this, we assess the current state of uncertainty quantification in the EO domain and found that only 20% of the reviewed Google Earth Engine (GEE) datasets incorporated a degree of uncertainty information, with unreliable methods prevalent. Next, we introduce modules that seamlessly integrate into existing GEE predictive modelling workflows and demonstrate the application of these tools for datasets spanning local to global scales, including the Dynamic World and Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) datasets. These case studies encompass regression and classification tasks, featuring both traditional and deep learning-based workflows. Subsequently, we discuss the opportunities arising from the use of conformal prediction in EO. We anticipate that the increased availability of easy-to-use implementations of conformal predictors, such as those provided here, will drive wider adoption of rigorous uncertainty quantification in EO, thereby enhancing the reliability of uses such as operational monitoring and decision making.