Large language models (LLMs) have delivered significant breakthroughs across diverse domains but can still produce unreliable or misleading outputs, posing critical challenges for real-world applications. While many recent studies focus on quantifying model uncertainty, relatively little work has been devoted to \textit{diagnosing the source of uncertainty}. In this study, we show that, when an LLM is uncertain, the patterns of disagreement among its multiple generated responses contain rich clues about the underlying cause of uncertainty. To illustrate this point, we collect multiple responses from a target LLM and employ an auxiliary LLM to analyze their patterns of disagreement. The auxiliary model is tasked to reason about the likely source of uncertainty, such as whether it stems from ambiguity in the input question, a lack of relevant knowledge, or both. In cases involving knowledge gaps, the auxiliary model also identifies the specific missing facts or concepts contributing to the uncertainty. In our experiment, we validate our framework on AmbigQA, OpenBookQA, and MMLU-Pro, confirming its generality in diagnosing distinct uncertainty sources. Such diagnosis shows the potential for relevant manual interventions that improve LLM performance and reliability.

With the increasing deployment of machine learning models in many socially-sensitive tasks, there is a growing demand for reliable and trustworthy predictions. One way to accomplish these requirements is to allow a model to abstain from making a prediction when there is a high risk of making an error. This requires adding a selection mechanism to the model, which selects those examples for which the model will provide a prediction. The selective classification framework aims to design a mechanism that balances the fraction of rejected predictions (i.e., the proportion of examples for which the model does not make a prediction) versus the improvement in predictive performance on the selected predictions. Multiple selective classification frameworks exist, most of which rely on deep neural network architectures. However, the empirical evaluation of the existing approaches is still limited to partial comparisons among methods and settings, providing practitioners with little insight into their relative merits. We fill this gap by benchmarking 18 baselines on a diverse set of 44 datasets that includes both image and tabular data. Moreover, there is a mix of binary and multiclass tasks. We evaluate these approaches using several criteria, including selective error rate, empirical coverage, distribution of rejected instance's classes, and performance on out-of-distribution instances. The results indicate that there is not a single clear winner among the surveyed baselines, and the best method depends on the users' objectives.

Chest X-rays (CXR) are the most common medical imaging study and are used to diagnose multiple medical conditions. This study examines the impact of synthetic data supplementation, using diffusion models, on the performance of deep learning (DL) classifiers for CXR analysis. We employed three datasets: CheXpert, MIMIC-CXR, and Emory Chest X-ray, training conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) to generate synthetic frontal radiographs. Our approach ensured that synthetic images mirrored the demographic and pathological traits of the original data. Evaluating the classifiers' performance on internal and external datasets revealed that synthetic data supplementation enhances model accuracy, particularly in detecting less prevalent pathologies. Furthermore, models trained on synthetic data alone approached the performance of those trained on real data. This suggests that synthetic data can potentially compensate for real data shortages in training robust DL models. However, despite promising outcomes, the superiority of real data persists.

Recent studies have revealed that grammatical error correction methods in the sequence-to-sequence paradigm are vulnerable to adversarial attack, and simply utilizing adversarial examples in the pre-training or post-training process can significantly enhance the robustness of GEC models to certain types of attack without suffering too much performance loss on clean data. In this paper, we further conduct a thorough robustness evaluation of cutting-edge GEC methods for four different types of adversarial attacks and propose a simple yet very effective Cycle Self-Augmenting (CSA) method accordingly. By leveraging the augmenting data from the GEC models themselves in the post-training process and introducing regularization data for cycle training, our proposed method can effectively improve the model robustness of well-trained GEC models with only a few more training epochs as an extra cost. More concretely, further training on the regularization data can prevent the GEC models from over-fitting on easy-to-learn samples and thus can improve the generalization capability and robustness towards unseen data (adversarial noise/samples). Meanwhile, the self-augmented data can provide more high-quality pseudo pairs to improve model performance on the original testing data. Experiments on four benchmark datasets and seven strong models indicate that our proposed training method can significantly enhance the robustness of four types of attacks without using purposely built adversarial examples in training. Evaluation results on clean data further confirm that our proposed CSA method significantly improves the performance of four baselines and yields nearly comparable results with other state-of-the-art models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZetangForward/CSA-GEC.

HERMES (High Energy Rapid Modular Ensemble of Satellites) pathfinder is an in-orbit demonstration consisting of a constellation of six 3U nano-satellites hosting simple but innovative detectors for the monitoring of cosmic high-energy transients. The main objective of HERMES Pathfinder is to prove that accurate position of high-energy cosmic transients can be obtained using miniaturized hardware. The transient position is obtained by studying the delay time of arrival of the signal to different detectors hosted by nano-satellites on low Earth orbits. To this purpose, the goal is to achive an overall accuracy of a fraction of a micro-second. In this context, we need to develop novel tools to fully exploit the future scientific data output of HERMES Pathfinder. In this paper, we introduce a new framework to assess the background count rate of a space-born, high energy detector; a key step towards the identification of faint astrophysical transients. We employ a Neural Network (NN) to estimate the background lightcurves on different timescales. Subsequently, we employ a fast change-point and anomaly detection technique to isolate observation segments where statistically significant excesses in the observed count rate relative to the background estimate exist. We test the new software on archival data from the NASA Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM), which has a collecting area and background level of the same order of magnitude to those of HERMES Pathfinder. The NN performances are discussed and analyzed over period of both high and low solar activity. We were able to confirm events in the Fermi/GBM catalog and found events, not present in Fermi/GBM database, that could be attributed to Solar Flares, Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes, Gamma-Ray Bursts, Galactic X-ray flash. Seven of these are selected and analyzed further, providing an estimate of localisation and a tentative classification.

Folding garments reliably and efficiently is a long standing challenge in robotic manipulation due to the complex dynamics and high dimensional configuration space of garments. An intuitive approach is to initially manipulate the garment to a canonical smooth configuration before folding. In this work, we develop SpeedFolding, a reliable and efficient bimanual system, which given user-defined instructions as folding lines, manipulates an initially crumpled garment to (1) a smoothed and (2) a folded configuration. Our primary contribution is a novel neural network architecture that is able to predict pairs of gripper poses to parameterize a diverse set of bimanual action primitives. After learning from 4300 human-annotated and self-supervised actions, the robot is able to fold garments from a random initial configuration in under 120s on average with a success rate of 93%. Real-world experiments show that the system is able to generalize to unseen garments of different color, shape, and stiffness. While prior work achieved 3-6 Folds Per Hour (FPH), SpeedFolding achieves 30-40 FPH.

Rule set learning has long been studied and has recently been frequently revisited due to the need for interpretable models. Still, existing methods have several shortcomings: 1) most recent methods require a binary feature matrix as input, while learning rules directly from numeric variables is understudied; 2) existing methods impose orders among rules, either explicitly or implicitly, which harms interpretability; and 3) currently no method exists for learning probabilistic rule sets for multi-class target variables (there is only one for probabilistic rule lists). We propose TURS, for Truly Unordered Rule Sets, which addresses these shortcomings. We first formalize the problem of learning truly unordered rule sets. To resolve conflicts caused by overlapping rules, i.e., instances covered by multiple rules, we propose a novel approach that exploits the probabilistic properties of our rule sets. We next develop a two-phase heuristic algorithm that learns rule sets by carefully growing rules. An important innovation is that we use a surrogate score to take the global potential of the rule set into account when learning a local rule. Finally, we empirically demonstrate that, compared to non-probabilistic and (explicitly or implicitly) ordered state-of-the-art methods, our method learns rule sets that not only have better interpretability but also better predictive performance.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is an important problem across many domains. In order to accurately estimate such treatment effects, one typically relies on data from observational studies or randomized experiments. Currently, most existing works rely exclusively on observational data, which is often confounded and, hence, yields biased estimates. While observational data is confounded, randomized data is unconfounded, but its sample size is usually too small to learn heterogeneous treatment effects. In this paper, we propose to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects by combining large amounts of observational data and small amounts of randomized data via representation learning. In particular, we introduce a two-step framework: first, we use observational data to learn a shared structure (in form of a representation); and then, we use randomized data to learn the data-specific structures. We analyze the finite sample properties of our framework and compare them to several natural baselines. As such, we derive conditions for when combining observational and randomized data is beneficial, and for when it is not. Based on this, we introduce a sample-efficient algorithm, called CorNet. We use extensive simulation studies to verify the theoretical properties of CorNet and multiple real-world datasets to demonstrate our method's superiority compared to existing methods.

Temporal logic inference is the process of extracting formal descriptions of system behaviors from data in the form of temporal logic formulas. The existing temporal logic inference methods mostly neglect uncertainties in the data, which results in limited applicability of such methods in real-world deployments. In this paper, we first investigate the uncertainties associated with trajectories of a system and represent such uncertainties in the form of interval trajectories. We then propose two uncertainty-aware signal temporal logic (STL) inference approaches to classify the undesired behaviors and desired behaviors of a system. Instead of classifying finitely many trajectories, we classify infinitely many trajectories within the interval trajectories. In the first approach, we incorporate robust semantics of STL formulas with respect to an interval trajectory to quantify the margin at which an STL formula is satisfied or violated by the interval trajectory. The second approach relies on the first learning algorithm and exploits the decision tree to infer STL formulas to classify behaviors of a given system. The proposed approaches also work for non-separable data by optimizing the worst-case robustness in inferring an STL formula. Finally, we evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms in two case studies, where the proposed algorithms show reductions in the computation time by up to four orders of magnitude in comparison with the sampling-based baseline algorithms (for a dataset with 800 sampled trajectories in total).

The performance of automatic speaker recognition systems degrades when facing distorted speech data containing additive noise and/or reverberation. Statistical uncertainty propagation has been introduced as a promising paradigm to address this challenge. So far, different uncertainty propagation methods have been proposed to compensate noise and reverberation in i-vectors in the context of speaker recognition. They have achieved promising results on small datasets such as YOHO and Wall Street Journal, but little or no improvement on the larger, highly variable NIST Speaker Recognition Evaluation (SRE) corpus. In this paper, we propose a complete uncertainty propagation method, whereby we model the effect of uncertainty both in the computation of unbiased Baum-Welch statistics and in the derivation of the posterior expectation of the i-vector. We conduct experiments on the NIST-SRE corpus mixed with real domestic noise and reverberation from the CHiME-2 corpus and preprocessed by multichannel speech enhancement. The proposed method improves the equal error rate (EER) by 4% relative compared to a conventional i-vector based speaker verification baseline. This is to be compared with previous methods which degrade performance.