We study wide Bayesian neural networks focusing on the rare but statistically dominant fluctuations that govern posterior concentration, beyond Gaussian-process limits. Large-deviation theory provides explicit variational objectives-rate functions-on predictors, providing an emerging notion of complexity and feature learning directly at the functional level. We show that the posterior output rate function is obtained by a joint optimization over predictors and internal kernels, in contrast with fixed-kernel (NNGP) theory. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the resulting predictions accurately describe finite-width behavior for moderately sized networks, capturing non-Gaussian tails, posterior deformation, and data-dependent kernel selection effects.

Low-precision training is critical for optimizing the trade-off between model quality and training costs, necessitating the joint allocation of model size, dataset size, and numerical precision. While empirical scaling laws suggest that quantization impacts effective model and data capacities or acts as an additive error, the theoretical mechanisms governing these effects remain largely unexplored. In this work, we initiate a theoretical study of scaling laws for low-precision training within a high-dimensional sketched linear regression framework. By analyzing multiplicative (signal-dependent) and additive (signal-independent) quantization, we identify a critical dichotomy in their scaling behaviors. Our analysis reveals that while both schemes introduce an additive error and degrade the effective data size, they exhibit distinct effects on effective model size: multiplicative quantization maintains the full-precision model size, whereas additive quantization reduces the effective model size. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings. By rigorously characterizing the complex interplay among model scale, dataset size, and quantization error, our work provides a principled theoretical basis for optimizing training protocols under practical hardware constraints.

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) necessitates efficient mechanisms to distinguish machine-generated content from human text. While statistical watermarking has emerged as a promising solution, existing methods suffer from two critical limitations: the lack of a principled approach for selecting sampling distributions and the reliance on fixed-horizon hypothesis testing, which precludes valid early stopping. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing the first e-value-based watermarking framework, Anchored E-Watermarking, that unifies optimal sampling with anytime-valid inference. Unlike traditional approaches where optional stopping invalidates Type-I error guarantees, our framework enables valid, anytime-inference by constructing a test supermartingale for the detection process. By leveraging an anchor distribution to approximate the target model, we characterize the optimal e-value with respect to the worst-case log-growth rate and derive the optimal expected stopping time. Our theoretical claims are substantiated by simulations and evaluations on established benchmarks, showing that our framework can significantly enhance sample efficiency, reducing the average token budget required for detection by 13-15% relative to state-of-the-art baselines.

We study one-sided and $α$-correct sequential hypothesis testing for data generated by an ergodic Markov chain. The null hypothesis is that the unknown transition matrix belongs to a prescribed set $P$ of stochastic matrices, and the alternative corresponds to a disjoint set $Q$. We establish a tight non-asymptotic instance-dependent lower bound on the expected stopping time of any valid sequential test under the alternative. Our novel analysis improves the existing lower bounds, which are either asymptotic or provably sub-optimal in this setting. Our lower bound incorporates both the stationary distribution and the transition structure induced by the unknown Markov chain. We further propose an optimal test whose expected stopping time matches this lower bound asymptotically as $α\to 0$. We illustrate the usefulness of our framework through applications to sequential detection of model misspecification in Markov Chain Monte Carlo and to testing structural properties, such as the linearity of transition dynamics, in Markov decision processes. Our findings yield a sharp and general characterization of optimal sequential testing procedures under Markovian dependence.

To address this gap, we study deterministic/stochastic versions of SAM with practical configurations (i.e., constant

Self-play is a technique for machine learning in multi-agent systems where a learning algorithm learns by interacting with copies of itself.