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Comparing LSTM-Based Sequence-to-Sequence Forecasting Strategies for 24-Hour Solar Proton Flux Profiles Using GOES Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Solar Proton Events (SPEs) cause significant radiation hazards to satellites, astronauts, and technological systems. Accurate forecasting of their proton flux time profiles is crucial for early warnings and mitigation. This paper explores deep learning sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models based on Long Short-Term Memory networks to predict 24-hour proton flux profiles following SPE onsets. We used a dataset of 40 well-connected SPEs (1997-2017) observed by NOAA GOES, each associated with a >=M-class western-hemisphere solar flare and undisturbed proton flux profiles. Using 4-fold stratified cross-validation, we evaluate seq2seq model configurations (varying hidden units and embedding dimensions) under multiple forecasting scenarios: (i) proton-only input vs. combined proton+X-ray input, (ii) original flux data vs. trend-smoothed data, and (iii) autoregressive vs. one-shot forecasting. Our major results are as follows: First, one-shot forecasting consistently yields lower error than autoregressive prediction, avoiding the error accumulation seen in iterative approaches. Second, on the original data, proton-only models outperform proton+X-ray models. However, with trend-smoothed data, this gap narrows or reverses in proton+X-ray models. Third, trend-smoothing significantly enhances the performance of proton+X-ray models by mitigating fluctuations in the X-ray channel. Fourth, while models trained on trendsmoothed data perform best on average, the best-performing model was trained on original data, suggesting that architectural choices can sometimes outweigh the benefits of data preprocessing.


UltraEdit: Training-, Subject-, and Memory-Free Lifelong Editing in Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Lifelong learning enables large language models (LLMs) to adapt to evolving information by continually updating their internal knowledge. An ideal system should support efficient, wide-ranging updates while preserving existing capabilities and ensuring reliable deployment. Model editing stands out as a promising solution for this goal, offering a focused and efficient way to revise a model's internal knowledge. Although recent paradigms have made notable progress, they often struggle to meet the demands of practical lifelong adaptation at scale. To bridge this gap, we propose UltraEdit, a training-, subject-, and memory-free approach that is well-suited for ultra-scalable, real-world lifelong model editing. UltraEdit fundamentally differs from traditional paradigms by computing parameter shifts in one step using only a hidden state and its gradient, making the approach simple yet efficient. To improve scalability in lifelong settings, UltraEdit employs a lifelong normalization strategy that continuously updates feature statistics across turns, allowing it to adapt to distributional shifts and maintain consistency over time. UltraEdit achieves editing speeds over 7x faster than the previous state-of-the-art method, which was also the fastest known approach, while using less than 1/4 the VRAM. This makes it the only method currently capable of editing a 7B LLM on a 24GB consumer-grade GPU. Furthermore, we construct UltraEditBench, the largest dataset in the field to date with over 2M editing pairs, and demonstrate that our method supports up to 2M edits while maintaining high accuracy. Comprehensive experiments on five datasets and six models show that UltraEdit consistently achieves superior performance across diverse model editing scenarios, taking a further step towards safe and scalable lifelong learning. Our code is available at: https://github.com/XiaojieGu/UltraEdit


Anisotropic Fourier Features for Positional Encoding in Medical Imaging

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The adoption of Transformer-based architectures in the medical domain is growing rapidly. In medical imaging, the analysis of complex shapes - such as organs, tissues, or other anatomical structures - combined with the often anisotropic nature of high-dimensional images complicates these adaptations. In this study, we critically examine the role of Positional Encodings (PEs), arguing that commonly used approaches may be suboptimal for the specific challenges of medical imaging. Sinusoidal Positional Encodings (SPEs) have proven effective in vision tasks, but they struggle to preserve Euclidean distances in higher-dimensional spaces. Isotropic Fourier Feature Positional Encodings (IFPEs) have been proposed to better preserve Euclidean distances, but they lack the ability to account for anisotropy in images. To address these limitations, we propose Anisotropic Fourier Feature Positional Encoding (AFPE), a generalization of IFPE that incorporates anisotropic, class-specific, and domain-specific spatial dependencies. We systematically benchmark AFPE against commonly used PEs on multi-label classification in chest X-rays, organ classification in CT images, and ejection fraction regression in echocardiography. Our results demonstrate that choosing the correct PE can significantly improve model performance. We show that the optimal PE depends on the shape of the structure of interest and the anisotropy of the data. Finally, our proposed AFPE significantly outperforms state-of-the-art PEs in all tested anisotropic settings. We conclude that, in anisotropic medical images and videos, it is of paramount importance to choose an anisotropic PE that fits the data and the shape of interest.


Inference-Time Gaze Refinement for Micro-Expression Recognition: Enhancing Event-Based Eye Tracking with Motion-Aware Post-Processing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Event-based eye tracking holds significant promise for fine-grained cognitive state inference, offering high temporal resolution and robustness to motion artifacts, critical features for decoding subtle mental states such as attention, confusion, or fatigue. In this work, we introduce a model-agnostic, inference-time refinement framework designed to enhance the output of existing event-based gaze estimation models without modifying their architecture or requiring retraining. Our method comprises two key post-processing modules: (i) Motion-Aware Median Filtering, which suppresses blink-induced spikes while preserving natural gaze dynamics, and (ii) Optical Flow-Based Local Refinement, which aligns gaze predictions with cumulative event motion to reduce spatial jitter and temporal discontinuities. To complement traditional spatial accuracy metrics, we propose a novel Jitter Metric that captures the temporal smoothness of predicted gaze trajectories based on velocity regularity and local signal complexity. Together, these contributions significantly improve the consistency of event-based gaze signals, making them better suited for downstream tasks such as micro-expression analysis and mind-state decoding. Our results demonstrate consistent improvements across multiple baseline models on controlled datasets, laying the groundwork for future integration with multimodal affect recognition systems in real-world environments. Our code implementations can be found at https://github.com/eye-tracking-for-physiological-sensing/EyeLoRiN.


Characterizing Nonlinear Dynamics via Smooth Prototype Equivalences

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Characterizing dynamical systems given limited measurements is a common challenge throughout the physical and biological sciences. However, this task is challenging, especially due to transient variability in systems with equivalent long-term dynamics. We address this by introducing smooth prototype equivalences (SPE), a framework that fits a diffeomorphism using normalizing flows to distinct prototypes - simplified dynamical systems that define equivalence classes of behavior. SPE enables classification by comparing the deformation loss of the observed sparse, high-dimensional measurements to the prototype dynamics. Furthermore, our approach enables estimation of the invariant sets of the observed dynamics through the learned mapping from prototype space to data space. Our method outperforms existing techniques in the classification of oscillatory systems and can efficiently identify invariant structures like limit cycles and fixed points in an equation-free manner, even when only a small, noisy subset of the phase space is observed. Finally, we show how our method can be used for the detection of biological processes like the cell cycle trajectory from high-dimensional single-cell gene expression data.


Policy Abstraction and Nash Refinement in Tree-Exploiting PSRO

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Policy Space Response Oracles (PSRO) interleaves empirical game-theoretic analysis with deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to solve games too complex for traditional analytic methods. Tree-exploiting PSRO (TE-PSRO) is a variant of this approach that iteratively builds a coarsened empirical game model in extensive form using data obtained from querying a simulator that represents a detailed description of the game. We make two main methodological advances to TE-PSRO that enhance its applicability to complex games of imperfect information. First, we introduce a scalable representation for the empirical game tree where edges correspond to implicit policies learned through DRL. These policies cover conditions in the underlying game abstracted in the game model, supporting sustainable growth of the tree over epochs. Second, we leverage extensive form in the empirical model by employing refined Nash equilibria to direct strategy exploration. To enable this, we give a modular and scalable algorithm based on generalized backward induction for computing a subgame perfect equilibrium (SPE) in an imperfect-information game. We experimentally evaluate our approach on a suite of games including an alternating-offer bargaining game with outside offers; our results demonstrate that TE-PSRO converges toward equilibrium faster when new strategies are generated based on SPE rather than Nash equilibrium, and with reasonable time/memory requirements for the growing empirical model.


A 10.60 $\mu$W 150 GOPS Mixed-Bit-Width Sparse CNN Accelerator for Life-Threatening Ventricular Arrhythmia Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper proposes an ultra-low power, mixed-bit-width sparse convolutional neural network (CNN) accelerator to accelerate ventricular arrhythmia (VA) detection. The chip achieves 50% sparsity in a quantized 1D CNN using a sparse processing element (SPE) architecture. Measurement on the prototype chip TSMC 40nm CMOS low-power (LP) process for the VA classification task demonstrates that it consumes 10.60 $\mu$W of power while achieving a performance of 150 GOPS and a diagnostic accuracy of 99.95%. The computation power density is only 0.57 $\mu$W/mm$^2$, which is 14.23X smaller than state-of-the-art works, making it highly suitable for implantable and wearable medical devices.


Principal-Agent Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Contracts are the economic framework which allows a principal to delegate a task to an agent -- despite misaligned interests, and even without directly observing the agent's actions. In many modern reinforcement learning settings, self-interested agents learn to perform a multi-stage task delegated to them by a principal. We explore the significant potential of utilizing contracts to incentivize the agents. We model the delegated task as an MDP, and study a stochastic game between the principal and agent where the principal learns what contracts to use, and the agent learns an MDP policy in response. We present a learning-based algorithm for optimizing the principal's contracts, which provably converges to the subgame-perfect equilibrium of the principal-agent game. A deep RL implementation allows us to apply our method to very large MDPs with unknown transition dynamics. We extend our approach to multiple agents, and demonstrate its relevance to resolving a canonical sequential social dilemma with minimal intervention to agent rewards.


Equilibria in Two-Stage Facility Location with Atomic Clients

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider competitive facility location as a two-stage multi-agent system with two types of clients. For a given host graph with weighted clients on the vertices, first facility agents strategically select vertices for opening their facilities. Then, the clients strategically select which of the opened facilities in their neighborhood to patronize. Facilities want to attract as much client weight as possible, clients want to minimize congestion on the chosen facility. All recently studied versions of this model assume that clients can split their weight strategically. We consider clients with unsplittable weights but allow mixed strategies. So clients may randomize over which facility to patronize. Besides modeling a natural client behavior, this subtle change yields drastic changes, e.g., for a given facility placement, qualitatively different client equilibria are possible. As our main result, we show that pure subgame perfect equilibria always exist if all client weights are identical. For this, we use a novel potential function argument, employing a hierarchical classification of the clients and sophisticated rounding in each step. In contrast, for non-identical clients, we show that deciding the existence of even approximately stable states is computationally intractable. On the positive side, we give a tight bound of $2$ on the price of anarchy which implies high social welfare of equilibria, if they exist.


Serial Position Effects of Large Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in zero-shot learning applications, generating responses to queries using only pre-training information without the need for additional fine-tuning. This represents a significant departure from traditional machine learning approaches. Previous research has indicated that LLMs may exhibit serial position effects, such as primacy and recency biases, which are well-documented cognitive biases in human psychology. Our extensive testing across various tasks and models confirms the widespread occurrence of these effects, although their intensity varies. We also discovered that while carefully designed prompts can somewhat mitigate these biases, their effectiveness is inconsistent. These findings underscore the significance of serial position effects during the inference process, particularly in scenarios where there are no ground truth labels, highlighting the need for greater focus on addressing these effects in LLM applications.