Global sensitivity analysis of complex numerical simulators is often limited by the small number of model evaluations that can be afforded. In such settings, surrogate models built from a limited set of simulations can substantially reduce the computational burden, provided that the design of computer experiments is enriched efficiently. In this context, we propose an active learning approach that, for a fixed evaluation budget, targets the most informative regions of the input space to improve sensitivity analysis accuracy. More specifically, our method builds on recent advances in active learning for sensitivity analysis (Sobol' indices and derivative-based global sensitivity measures, DGSM) that exploit derivatives obtained from a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate. By leveraging the joint posterior distribution of the GP gradient, we develop acquisition functions that better account for correlations between partial derivatives and their impact on the response surface, leading to a more comprehensive and robust methodology than existing DGSM-oriented criteria. The proposed approach is first compared to state-of-the-art methods on standard benchmark functions, and is then applied to a real environmental model of pesticide transfers.

Explainable machine learning techniques have gained increasing attention in engineering applications, especially in aerospace design and analysis, where understanding how input variables influence data-driven models is essential. Partial Dependence Plots (PDPs) are widely used for interpreting black-box models by showing the average effect of an input variable on the prediction. However, their global sensitivity metric can be misleading when strong interactions are present, as averaging tends to obscure interaction effects. To address this limitation, we propose a global sensitivity metric based on Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) curves. The method computes the expected feature importance across ICE curves, along with their standard deviation, to more effectively capture the influence of interactions. We provide a mathematical proof demonstrating that the PDP-based sensitivity is a lower bound of the proposed ICE-based metric under truncated orthogonal polynomial expansion. In addition, we introduce an ICE-based correlation value to quantify how interactions modify the relationship between inputs and the output. Comparative evaluations were performed on three cases: a 5-variable analytical function, a 5-variable wind-turbine fatigue problem, and a 9-variable airfoil aerodynamics case, where ICE-based sensitivity was benchmarked against PDP, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), and Sobol' indices. The results show that ICE-based feature importance provides richer insights than the traditional PDP-based approach, while visual interpretations from PDP, ICE, and SHAP complement one another by offering multiple perspectives.

The curse of dimensionality presents a pervasive challenge in optimization problems, with exponential expansion of the search space rapidly causing traditional algorithms to become inefficient or infeasible. An adaptive sampling strategy is presented to accelerate optimization in this domain as an alternative to uniform quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. This method, referred to as Hyperellipsoid Density Sampling (HDS), generates its sequences by defining multiple hyperellipsoids throughout the search space. HDS uses three types of unsupervised learning algorithms to circumvent high-dimensional geometric calculations, producing an intelligent, non-uniform sample sequence that exploits statistically promising regions of the parameter space and improves final solution quality in high-dimensional optimization problems. A key feature of the method is optional Gaussian weights, which may be provided to influence the sample distribution towards known locations of interest. This capability makes HDS versatile for applications beyond optimization, providing a focused, denser sample distribution where models need to concentrate their efforts on specific, non-uniform regions of the parameter space. The method was evaluated against Sobol, a standard QMC method, using differential evolution (DE) on the 29 CEC2017 benchmark test functions. The results show statistically significant improvements in solution geometric mean error (p < 0.05), with average performance gains ranging from 3% in 30D to 37% in 10D. This paper demonstrates the efficacy of HDS as a robust alternative to QMC sampling for high-dimensional optimization.

Understanding how these systems arrive at their decisions is a necessary first step before these biases can be corrected.

Kernel discrepancies are a powerful tool for analyzing worst-case errors in quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods. Building on recent advances in optimizing such discrepancy measures, we extend the subset selection problem to the setting of kernel discrepancies, selecting an m-element subset from a large population of size $n \gg m$. We introduce a novel subset selection algorithm applicable to general kernel discrepancies to efficiently generate low-discrepancy samples from both the uniform distribution on the unit hypercube, the traditional setting of classical QMC, and from more general distributions $F$ with known density functions by employing the kernel Stein discrepancy. We also explore the relationship between the classical $L_2$ star discrepancy and its $L_\infty$ counterpart.

Explaining the behavior of predictive models with random inputs can be achieved through sub-models decomposition, where such sub-models have easier interpretable features. Arising from the uncertainty quantification community, recent results have demonstrated the existence and uniqueness of a generalized Hoeffding decomposition for such predictive models when the stochastic input variables are correlated, based on concepts of oblique projection onto L 2 subspaces. This article focuses on the case where the input variables have Bernoulli distributions and provides a complete description of this decomposition. We show that in this case the underlying L 2 subspaces are one-dimensional and that the functional decomposition is explicit. This leads to a complete interpretability framework and theoretically allows reverse engineering. Explicit indicators of the influence of inputs on the output prediction (exemplified by Sobol' indices and Shapley effects) can be explicitly derived. Illustrated by numerical experiments, this type of analysis proves useful for addressing decision-support problems, based on binary decision diagrams, Boolean networks or binary neural networks. The article outlines perspectives for exploring high-dimensional settings and, beyond the case of binary inputs, extending these findings to models with finite countable inputs.

Low-discrepancy point sets and digital sequences underpin quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods for high-dimensional integration. We cast two long-standing QMC design problems as program synthesis and solve them with an LLM-guided evolutionary loop that mutates and selects code under task-specific fitness: (i) constructing finite 2D/3D point sets with low star discrepancy, and (ii) choosing Sobol' direction numbers that minimize randomized QMC error on downstream integrands. Our two-phase procedure combines constructive code proposals with iterative numerical refinement. On finite sets, we rediscover known optima in small 2D cases and set new best-known 2D benchmarks for N >= 40, while matching most known 3D optima up to the proven frontier (N <= 8) and reporting improved 3D benchmarks beyond. On digital sequences, evolving Sobol' parameters yields consistent reductions in randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (rQMC) mean-squared error for several 32-dimensional option-pricing tasks relative to widely used Joe--Kuo parameters, while preserving extensibility to any sample size and compatibility with standard randomizations. Taken together, the results demonstrate that LLM-driven evolutionary program synthesis can automate the discovery of high-quality QMC constructions, recovering classical designs where they are optimal and improving them where finite-N structure matters. Data and code are available at https://github.com/hockeyguy123/openevolve-star-discrepancy.git.

Low-discrepancy points are designed to efficiently fill the space in a uniform manner. This uniformity is highly advantageous in many problems in science and engineering, including in numerical integration, computer vision, machine perception, computer graphics, machine learning, and simulation. Whereas most previous low-discrepancy constructions rely on abstract algebra and number theory, Message-Passing Monte Carlo (MPMC) was recently introduced to exploit machine learning methods for generating point sets with lower discrepancy than previously possible. However, MPMC is limited to generating point sets and cannot be extended to low-discrepancy sequences (LDS), i.e., sequences of points in which every prefix has low discrepancy, a property essential for many applications. To address this limitation, we introduce Neural Low-Discrepancy Sequences ($NeuroLDS$), the first machine learning-based framework for generating LDS. Drawing inspiration from classical LDS, we train a neural network to map indices to points such that the resulting sequences exhibit minimal discrepancy across all prefixes. To this end, we deploy a two-stage learning process: supervised approximation of classical constructions followed by unsupervised fine-tuning to minimize prefix discrepancies. We demonstrate that $NeuroLDS$ outperforms all previous LDS constructions by a significant margin with respect to discrepancy measures. Moreover, we demonstrate the effectiveness of $NeuroLDS$ across diverse applications, including numerical integration, robot motion planning, and scientific machine learning. These results highlight the promise and broad significance of Neural Low-Discrepancy Sequences. Our code can be found at https://github.com/camail-official/neuro-lds.

Given-data methods for variance-based sensitivity analysis have significantly advanced the feasibility of Sobol' index computation for computationally expensive models and models with many inputs. However, the limitations of existing methods still preclude their application to models with an extremely large number of inputs. In this work, we present practical extensions to the existing given-data Sobol' index method, which allow variance-based sensitivity analysis to be efficiently performed on large models such as neural networks, which have $>10^4$ parameterizable inputs. For models of this size, holding all input-output evaluations simultaneously in memory -- as required by existing methods -- can quickly become impractical. These extensions also support nonstandard input distributions with many repeated values, which are not amenable to equiprobable partitions employed by existing given-data methods. Our extensions include a general definition of the given-data Sobol' index estimator with arbitrary partition, a streaming algorithm to process input-output samples in batches, and a heuristic to filter out small indices that are indistinguishable from zero indices due to statistical noise. We show that the equiprobable partition employed in existing given-data methods can introduce significant bias into Sobol' index estimates even at large sample sizes and provide numerical analyses that demonstrate why this can occur. We also show that our streaming algorithm can achieve comparable accuracy and runtimes with lower memory requirements, relative to current methods which process all samples at once. We demonstrate our novel developments on two application problems in neural network modeling.

An adaptive bandwidth selection procedure for the mixture kernel in the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) for fitting generative moment matching networks (GMMNs) is introduced, and its ability to improve the learning of copula random number generators is demonstrated. Based on the relative error of the training loss, the number of kernels is increased during training; additionally, the relative error of the validation loss is used as an early stopping criterion. While training time of such adaptively trained GMMNs (AGMMNs) is similar to that of GMMNs, training performance is increased significantly in comparison to GMMNs, which is assessed and shown based on validation MMD trajectories, samples and validation MMD values. Superiority of AGMMNs over GMMNs, as well as typical parametric copula models, is demonstrated in terms of three applications. First, convergence rates of quasi-random versus pseudo-random samples from high-dimensional copulas are investigated for three functionals of interest and in dimensions as large as 100 for the first time. Second, replicated validation MMDs, as well as Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo applications based on the expected payoff of a basked call option and the risk measure expected shortfall as functionals are used to demonstrate the improved training of AGMMNs over GMMNs for a copula model fitted to the standardized residuals of the 50 constituents of the S&P 500 index after deGARCHing. Last, both the latter dataset and 50 constituents of the FTSE~100 are used to demonstrate that the improved training of AGMMNs over GMMNs and in comparison to the fitting of classical parametric copula models indeed also translates to an improved model prediction.