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Coarsening Linear Non-Gaussian Causal Models with Cycles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent work on causal abstraction, in particular graphical approaches focusing on causal structure between clusters of variables, aims to summarize a high-dimensional causal structure in terms of a low-dimensional one. Existing methods for learning such summaries from data assume that both the high- and low-dimensional structures are acyclic, which is helpful for causal effect identification and reasoning but excludes many high-dimensional models and thus limits applicability. We show that in the linear non-Gaussian (LiNG) setting, the high-dimensional acyclicity assumption can be relaxed while still allowing recovery of a low-dimensional causal directed acyclic graph (DAG). We further connect identifiability of this low-dimensional DAG to existing results: LiNG models with cycles are observationally identifiable only up to an equivalence class whose members differ by reversals of directed cycles; our low-dimensional DAG, which is invariant across all members of a given equivalence class, thus forms a natural representative of the class. While existing approaches for learning this observational equivalence class over high-dimensional variables have exponential time complexity, our low-dimensional summary is learned in worst-case cubic time and comes with explicit bounds on the sample complexity. We provide open source code and experiments on synthetic data to corroborate our theoretical results.


Stable Blanket with Hidden Variables and Cycles

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Stabilized regression aims to identify a set of predictors whose conditional relationship with a response variable remains invariant across different environments. Existing graphical characterizations of the stable blanket are mainly developed for structural causal models (SCMs) without hidden variables or causal cycles. However, latent variables and feedback relationships naturally arise in many applications, and they can change both the Markov blanket and the set of predictors that remain stable under interventions. This paper studies stable blankets in graphical causal models with hidden variables, causal cycles, and both features simultaneously. For models with hidden variables, we use acyclic directed mixed graphs (ADMGs) and $m$-separation to characterize the Markov blanket and to construct intervention-stable predictor sets. We introduce the notion of an intervened sub-district and use it to describe how interventions may affect districts connected to the response. For models with cycles, we work with directed graphs (DGs) and directed mixed graphs (DMGs) together with $σ$-separation, treating strongly connected components (SCCs) as the basic graphical units. We then combine these ideas to analyze models with both hidden variables and cycles. The main results give graphical characterizations of Markov blankets, stable frontiers, and stable blankets in these generalized settings. In particular, we identify conditions under which the response is conditionally independent of intervention variables given a suitable predictor set, and we describe when such sets are minimal or unique. These results extend the graphical interpretation of stabilized regression beyond acyclic fully observed models.



3d36c07721a0a5a96436d6c536a132ec-Supplemental.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

A very common assumption when dealing with neural timeseries recordings is that the recorded signal within each windownisapproximately stationary,and isappropriately modeled asaVAR process [24,29,34,35]. The autoregressivematrices,A1,A2,...,Ap, define the how the previous signal valuesinfluence vt. The cross-spectral matrix can be factorized into aunique set of VAR parameters H(ω) and Σ [53]. The causal component of power (Hcb(ω)Σb|cH cb) is exactly the Directed Spectrum as defined in Section3.3. C bc(ω)Cbc(ω+δω), (42) where I() represent the imaginary component of the expression in parentheses,F is a group of sequential frequencies forwhich thePSIisbeing calculated, andδω isthefrequencyresolution of therecording. Wenote thatthepowerspectrum andother elements ofthecross-spectral matrix should both scale linearly with the network activationZ(j) (for more details see Supplemental Section A).


ELSPR: Evaluator LLM Training Data Self-Purification on Non-Transitive Preferences via Tournament Graph Reconstruction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pairwise evaluation of large language models (LLMs) has become the dominant paradigm for benchmarking open-ended tasks, yet non-transitive preferences, where evaluators prefer A over B, B over C, but C over A, fundamentally undermine ranking reliability. We show that this critical issue stems largely from low-quality data that contains inherently ambiguous preference pairs. To address this challenge, we propose ELSPR, a principled graph-theoretic framework that models pairwise preferences as tournament graphs and systematically identifies problematic training data. ELSPR quantifies non-transitivity through strongly connected components (SCCs) analysis and measures overall preference clarity using a novel normalized directed graph structural entropy metric. Our filtering methodology selectively removes preference data that induce non-transitivity while preserving transitive preferences. Extensive experiments on the AlpacaEval benchmark demonstrate that models fine-tuned on ELSPR-filtered data achieve substantial improvements: a 13.8% reduction in non-transitivity, a 0.088 decrease in structural entropy, and significantly enhanced discriminative power in real-world evaluation systems. Human validation confirms that discarded data exhibit dramatically lower inter-annotator agreement (34.4% vs. 52.6%) and model-human consistency (51.2% vs. 80.6%) compared to cleaned data. These findings establish ELSPR as an effective data self-purification approach for developing more robust, consistent, and human-aligned LLM evaluation systems.



Steering Opinion Dynamics in Signed Time-Varying Networks via External Control Input

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract-- This paper studies targeted opinion formation in multi-agent systems evolving over signed, time-varying directed graphs. The dynamics of each agent's state follow a Laplacian-based update rule driven by both cooperative and antagonistic interactions in the presence of exogenous factors. We formulate these exogenous factors as external control inputs and establish a suitable controller design methodology enabling collective opinion to converge to any desired steady-state configuration, superseding the natural emergent clustering or polarization behavior imposed by persistently structurally balanced influential root nodes. Our approach leverages upper Dini derivative analysis and Gr onwall-type inequalities to establish exponential convergence for opinion magnitude towards the desired steady state configuration on networks with uniform quasi-strong δ-connectivity. Finally, the theoretical results are validated through extensive numerical simulations.



Rate-Agnostic (Causal) Structure Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Causal structure learning from time series data is a major scientific challenge. Extant algorithms assume that measurements occur sufficiently quickly; more precisely, they assume approximately equal system and measurement timescales. In many domains, however, measurements occur at a significantly slower rate than the underlying system changes, but the size of the timescale mismatch is often unknown. This paper develops three causal structure learning algorithms, each of which discovers all dynamic causal graphs that explain the observed measurement data, perhaps given undersampling. That is, these algorithms all learn causal structure in a "rate-agnostic" manner: they do not assume any particular relation between the measurement and system timescales. We apply these algorithms to data from simulations to gain insight into the challenge of undersampling.


Hardness, Structural Knowledge, and Opportunity: An Analytical Framework for Modular Performance Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Performance-influence models are beneficial for understanding how configurations affect system performance, but their creation is challenging due to the exponential growth of configuration spaces. While gray-box approaches leverage selective "structural knowledge" (like the module execution graph of the system) to improve modeling, the relationship between this knowledge, a system's characteristics (we call them "structural aspects"), and potential model improvements is not well understood. This paper addresses this gap by formally investigating how variations in structural aspects (e.g., the number of modules and options per module) and the level of structural knowledge impact the creation of "opportunities" for improved "modular performance modeling". We introduce and quantify the concept of modeling "hardness", defined as the inherent difficulty of performance modeling. Through controlled experiments with synthetic system models, we establish an "analytical matrix" to measure these concepts. Our findings show that modeling hardness is primarily driven by the number of modules and configuration options per module. More importantly, we demonstrate that both higher levels of structural knowledge and increased modeling hardness significantly enhance the opportunity for improvement. The impact of these factors varies by performance metric; for ranking accuracy (e.g., in debugging task), structural knowledge is more dominant, while for prediction accuracy (e.g., in resource management task), hardness plays a stronger role. These results provide actionable insights for system designers, guiding them to strategically allocate time and select appropriate modeling approaches based on a system's characteristics and a given task's objectives.