Calibration is a conditional property that depends on the information retained by a predictor. We develop decomposition identities for arbitrary proper losses that make this dependence explicit. At any information level $\mathcal A$, the expected loss of an $\mathcal A$-measurable predictor splits into a proper-regret (reliability) term and a conditional entropy (residual uncertainty) term. For nested levels $\mathcal A\subseteq\mathcal B$, a chain decomposition quantifies the information gain from $\mathcal A$ to $\mathcal B$. Applied to classification with features $\boldsymbol{X}$ and score $S=s(\boldsymbol{X})$, this yields a three-term identity: miscalibration, a {\em grouping} term measuring information loss from $\boldsymbol{X}$ to $S$, and irreducible uncertainty at the feature level. We leverage the framework to analyze post-hoc recalibration, aggregation of calibrated models, and stagewise/boosting constructions, with explicit forms for Brier and log-loss.

Multifractal analysis has revealed regularities in many self-seeding phenomena, yet its use in modern deep learning remains limited. Existing end-to-end multifractal methods rely on heavy pooling or strong feature-space decimation, which constrain tasks such as semantic segmentation. Motivated by these limitations, we introduce two inductive priors: Monofractal and Multifractal Recalibration. These methods leverage relationships between the probability mass of the exponents and the multifractal spectrum to form statistical descriptions of encoder embeddings, implemented as channel-attention functions in convolutional networks. Using a U-Net-based framework, we show that multifractal recalibration yields substantial gains over a baseline equipped with other channel-attention mechanisms that also use higher-order statistics. Given the proven ability of multifractal analysis to capture pathological regularities, we validate our approach on three public medical-imaging datasets: ISIC18 (dermoscopy), Kvasir-SEG (endoscopy), and BUSI (ultrasound). Our empirical analysis also provides insights into the behavior of these attention layers. We find that excitation responses do not become increasingly specialized with encoder depth in U-Net architectures due to skip connections, and that their effectiveness may relate to global statistics of instance variability.

Modern financial models are not static; they are recalibrated as market conditions change. Therefore calibrating parametric asset-pricing models to market data has always been an ongoing interest for both practitioners and academics in the field of mathematical finance. Risk management systems along with trading desks rely heavily on the repeated solutions of inverse problems aimed at calibrating and adjusting parameters θ so that the model-based prices m(x;θ) reproduce observed quotes to some extent of accuracy. Option-implied volatility surfaces evolve minute by minute, and model parameters such as mean reversion, volatility of volatility, or correlation etc. are adapted to new market information.

Post-hoc recalibration methods are widely used to ensure that classifiers provide faithful probability estimates. We argue that parametric recalibration functions based on logistic regression can be motivated from a simple theoretical setting for both binary and multiclass classification. This insight motivates the use of more expressive calibration methods beyond standard temperature scaling. For multi-class calibration however, a key challenge lies in the increasing number of parameters introduced by more complex models, often coupled with limited calibration data, which can lead to overfitting. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that the resulting bias-variance tradeoff can be effectively managed by structured regularization, robust preprocessing and efficient optimization. The resulting methods lead to substantial gains over existing logistic-based calibration techniques. We provide efficient and easy-to-use open-source implementations of our methods, making them an attractive alternative to common temperature, vector, and matrix scaling implementations.

Machine learning approaches for image classification have led to impressive advances in that field. For example, convolutional neural networks are able to achieve remarkable image classification accuracy across a wide range of applications in industry, defense, and other areas. While these machine learning models boast impressive accuracy, a related concern is how to assess and maintain calibration in the predictions these models make. A classification model is said to be well calibrated if its predicted probabilities correspond with the rates events actually occur. While there are many available methods to assess machine learning calibration and recalibrate faulty predictions, less effort has been spent on developing approaches that continually monitor predictive models for potential loss of calibration as time passes. We propose a cumulative sum-based approach with dynamic limits that enable detection of miscalibration in both traditional process monitoring and concept drift applications. This enables early detection of operational context changes that impact image classification performance in the field. The proposed chart can be used broadly in any situation where the user needs to monitor probability predictions over time for potential lapses in calibration. Importantly, our method operates on probability predictions and event outcomes and does not require under-the-hood access to the machine learning model.

Reliably characterizing the full conditional distribution of a multivariate response variable given a set of covariates is crucial for trustworthy decision-making. However, misspecified or miscalibrated multivariate models may yield a poor approximation of the joint distribution of the response variables, leading to unreliable predictions and suboptimal decisions. Furthermore, standard recalibration methods are primarily limited to univariate settings, while conformal prediction techniques, despite generating multivariate prediction regions with coverage guarantees, do not provide a full probability density function. We address this gap by first introducing a novel notion of latent calibration, which assesses probabilistic calibration in the latent space of a conditional normalizing flow. Second, we propose latent recalibration (LR), a novel post-hoc model recalibration method that learns a transformation of the latent space with finite-sample bounds on latent calibration. Unlike existing methods, LR produces a recalibrated distribution with an explicit multivariate density function while remaining computationally efficient. Extensive experiments on both tabular and image datasets show that LR consistently improves latent calibration error and the negative log-likelihood of the recalibrated models.