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 prognosis


Probabilistic Digital Twin for Misspecified Structural Dynamical Systems via Latent Force Modeling and Bayesian Neural Networks

Kashyap, Sahil, Nayek, Rajdip

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This work presents a probabilistic digital twin framework for response prediction in dynamical systems governed by misspecified physics. The approach integrates Gaussian Process Latent Force Models (GPLFM) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) to enable end-to-end uncertainty-aware inference and prediction. In the diagnosis phase, model-form errors (MFEs) are treated as latent input forces to a nominal linear dynamical system and jointly estimated with system states using GPLFM from sensor measurements. A BNN is then trained on posterior samples to learn a probabilistic nonlinear mapping from system states to MFEs, while capturing diagnostic uncertainty. For prognosis, this mapping is used to generate pseudo-measurements, enabling state prediction via Kalman filtering. The framework allows for systematic propagation of uncertainty from diagnosis to prediction, a key capability for trustworthy digital twins. The framework is demonstrated using four nonlinear examples: a single degree of freedom (DOF) oscillator, a multi-DOF system, and two established benchmarks -- the Bouc-Wen hysteretic system and the Silverbox experimental dataset -- highlighting its predictive accuracy and robustness to model misspecification.


Deep Pathomic Learning Defines Prognostic Subtypes and Molecular Drivers in Colorectal Cancer

Wang, Zisong, Wang, Xuanyu, Chen, Hang, Wang, Haizhou, Chen, Yuxin, Xu, Yihang, Yuan, Yunhe, Luo, Lihuan, Ling, Xitong, Liu, Xiaoping

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Precise prognostic stratification of colorectal cancer (CRC) remains a major clinical challenge due to its high heterogeneity. The conventional TNM staging system is inadequate for personalized medicine. We aimed to develop and validate a novel multiple instance learning model TDAM-CRC using histopathological whole-slide images for accurate prognostic prediction and to uncover its underlying molecular mechanisms. We trained the model on the TCGA discovery cohort (n=581), validated it in an independent external cohort (n=1031), and further we integrated multi-omics data to improve model interpretability and identify novel prognostic biomarkers. The results demonstrated that the TDAM-CRC achieved robust risk stratification in both cohorts. Its predictive performance significantly outperformed the conventional clinical staging system and multiple state-of-the-art models. The TDAM-CRC risk score was confirmed as an independent prognostic factor in multivariable analysis. Multi-omics analysis revealed that the high-risk subtype is closely associated with metabolic reprogramming and an immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment. Through interaction network analysis, we identified and validated Mitochondrial Ribosomal Protein L37 (MRPL37) as a key hub gene linking deep pathomic features to clinical prognosis. We found that high expression of MRPL37, driven by promoter hypomethylation, serves as an independent biomarker of favorable prognosis. Finally, we constructed a nomogram incorporating the TDAM-CRC risk score and clinical factors to provide a precise and interpretable clinical decision-making tool for CRC patients. Our AI-driven pathological model TDAM-CRC provides a robust tool for improved CRC risk stratification, reveals new molecular targets, and facilitates personalized clinical decision-making.


DuPLUS: Dual-Prompt Vision-Language Framework for Universal Medical Image Segmentation and Prognosis

Saeed, Numan, Saleem, Tausifa Jan, Maani, Fadillah, Ridzuan, Muhammad, Wang, Hu, Yaqub, Mohammad

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning for medical imaging is hampered by task-specific models that lack generalizability and prognostic capabilities, while existing'universal' approaches suffer from simplistic conditioning and poor medical semantic understanding. T o address these limitations, we introduce DuPLUS, a deep learning framework for efficient multi-modal medical image analysis. DuPLUS introduces a novel vision-language framework that leverages hierarchical semantic prompts for fine-grained control over the analysis task, a capability absent in prior universal models. T o enable extensibility to other medical tasks, it includes a hierarchical, text-controlled architecture driven by a unique dual-prompt mechanism. F or segmentation, DuPLUS is able to generalize across three imaging modalities, ten different anatomically various medical datasets, encompassing more than 30 organs and tumor types. It outperforms the state-of-the-art task-specific and universal models on 8 out of 10 datasets. W e demonstrate extensibility of its text-controlled architecture by seamless integration of electronic health record (EHR) data for prognosis prediction, and on a head and neck cancer dataset, DuPLUS achieved a Concordance Index (CI) of 0.69. Parameter-efficient fine-tuning enables rapid adaptation to new tasks and modalities from varying centers, establishing DuPLUS as a versatile and clinically relevant solution for medical image analysis. The code for this work is made available at: https: //anonymous.4open.science/r/DuPLUS-6C52


Single Domain Generalization for Multimodal Cross-Cancer Prognosis via Dirac Rebalancer and Distribution Entanglement

Jiang, Jia-Xuan, Liu, Jiashuai, Wu, Hongtao, Wu, Yifeng, Wang, Zhong, Bi, Qi, Zheng, Yefeng

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning has shown remarkable performance in integrating multimodal data for survival prediction. However, existing multimodal methods mainly focus on single cancer types and overlook the challenge of generalization across cancers. In this work, we are the first to reveal that multimodal prognosis models often generalize worse than unimodal ones in cross-cancer scenarios, despite the critical need for such robustness in clinical practice. To address this, we propose a new task: Cross-Cancer Single Domain Generalization for Multimodal Prognosis, which evaluates whether models trained on a single cancer type can generalize to unseen cancers. We identify two key challenges: degraded features from weaker modalities and ineffective multimodal integration. To tackle these, we introduce two plug-and-play modules: Sparse Dirac Information Rebalancer (SDIR) and Cancer-aware Distribution Entanglement (CADE). SDIR mitigates the dominance of strong features by applying Bernoulli-based sparsification and Dirac-inspired stabilization to enhance weaker modality signals. CADE, designed to synthesize the target domain distribution, fuses local morphological cues and global gene expression in latent space. Experiments on a four-cancer-type benchmark demonstrate superior generalization, laying the foundation for practical, robust cross-cancer multimodal prognosis. Code is available at https://github.com/HopkinsKwong/MCCSDG


MedSR-Impact: Transformer-Based Super-Resolution for Lung CT Segmentation, Radiomics, Classification, and Prognosis

Martell, Marc Boubnovski, Linton-Reid, Kristofer, Chen, Mitchell, Hindocha, Sumeet, Hunter, Benjamin, Calzado, Marco A., Lee, Richard, Posma, Joram M., Aboagye, Eric O.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

High-resolution volumetric computed tomography (CT) is essential for accurate diagnosis and treatment planning in thoracic diseases; however, it is limited by radiation dose and hardware costs. We present the Transformer Volumetric Super-Resolution Network (\textbf{TVSRN-V2}), a transformer-based super-resolution (SR) framework designed for practical deployment in clinical lung CT analysis. Built from scalable components, including Through-Plane Attention Blocks (TAB) and Swin Transformer V2 -- our model effectively reconstructs fine anatomical details in low-dose CT volumes and integrates seamlessly with downstream analysis pipelines. We evaluate its effectiveness on three critical lung cancer tasks -- lobe segmentation, radiomics, and prognosis -- across multiple clinical cohorts. To enhance robustness across variable acquisition protocols, we introduce pseudo-low-resolution augmentation, simulating scanner diversity without requiring private data. TVSRN-V2 demonstrates a significant improvement in segmentation accuracy (+4\% Dice), higher radiomic feature reproducibility, and enhanced predictive performance (+0.06 C-index and AUC). These results indicate that SR-driven recovery of structural detail significantly enhances clinical decision support, positioning TVSRN-V2 as a well-engineered, clinically viable system for dose-efficient imaging and quantitative analysis in real-world CT workflows.


Universal Laboratory Model: prognosis of abnormal clinical outcomes based on routine tests

Karpov, Pavel, Petrenkov, Ilya, Raiman, Ruslan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Clinical laboratory results are ubiquitous in any diagnosis making. Predicting abnormal values of not prescribed tests based on the results of performed tests looks intriguing, as it would be possible to make early diagnosis available to everyone. The special place is taken by the Common Blood Count (CBC) test, as it is the most widely used clinical procedure. Combining routine biochemical panels with CBC presents a set of test-value pairs that varies from patient to patient, or, in common settings, a table with missing values. Here we formulate a tabular modeling problem as a set translation problem where the source set comprises pairs of GPT-like label column embedding and its corresponding value while the target set consists of the same type embeddings only. The proposed approach can effectively deal with missing values without implicitly estimating them and bridges the world of LLM with the tabular domain. Applying this method to clinical laboratory data, we achieve an improvement up to 8% AUC for joint predictions of high uric acid, glucose, cholesterol, and low ferritin levels.


AI Standardized Patient Improves Human Conversations in Advanced Cancer Care

Haut, Kurtis, Hasan, Masum, Carroll, Thomas, Epstein, Ronald, Sen, Taylan, Hoque, Ehsan

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

These are high-stakes conversations where clinicians must navigate weighty issues, where a poorly chosen word could have lasting consequences on a patient's final days and the memories their loved ones carry forward. Low-quality SIC has been associated with poor patient and family prognostic understanding [5], perceived lack of emotional support [6], lower quality healthcare outcomes and higher costs [7-13]. Communication with advanced-stage cancer patients specifically poses a variety of challenges, including: the volume and complexity of medical information, often fast-paced office visits, and the emotional burden of these life-changing conversations, for clinicians, patients, and their loved ones. Despite their extensive medical training, many physicians struggle to deliver difficult news effectively [14-16], often resulting in patient anxiety, misaligned treatment decisions, and reduced quality of care [17-19]. Also costly is the terms of expensive and potentially burdensome treatments as well as malpractice claims[20].


Predicting Survivability of Cancer Patients with Metastatic Patterns Using Explainable AI

Nalela, Polycarp, Rao, Deepthi, Rao, Praveen

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cancer remains a leading global health challenge and a major cause of mortality. This study leverages machine learning (ML) to predict the survivability of cancer patients with metastatic patterns using the comprehensive MSK-MET dataset, which includes genomic and clinical data from 25,775 patients across 27 cancer types. We evaluated five ML models-XGBoost, Naïve Bayes, Decision Tree, Logistic Regression, and Random Fores using hyperparameter tuning and grid search. XGBoost emerged as the best performer with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.82. To enhance model interpretability, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were applied, revealing key predictors such as metastatic site count, tumor mutation burden, fraction of genome altered, and organ-specific metastases. Further survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox Proportional Hazards models, and XGBoost Survival Analysis identified significant predictors of patient outcomes, offering actionable insights for clinicians. These findings could aid in personalized prognosis and treatment planning, ultimately improving patient care.


Diagnostic-free onboard battery health assessment

Che, Yunhong, Lam, Vivek N., Rhyu, Jinwook, Schaeffer, Joachim, Kim, Minsu, Bazant, Martin Z., Chueh, William C., Braatz, Richard D.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diverse usage patterns induce complex and variable aging behaviors in lithium-ion batteries, complicating accurate health diagnosis and prognosis. Separate diagnostic cycles are often used to untangle the battery's current state of health from prior complex aging patterns. However, these same diagnostic cycles alter the battery's degradation trajectory, are time-intensive, and cannot be practically performed in onboard applications. In this work, we leverage portions of operational measurements in combination with an interpretable machine learning model to enable rapid, onboard battery health diagnostics and prognostics without offline diagnostic testing and the requirement of historical data. We integrate mechanistic constraints within an encoder-decoder architecture to extract electrode states in a physically interpretable latent space and enable improved reconstruction of the degradation path. The health diagnosis model framework can be flexibly applied across diverse application interests with slight fine-tuning. We demonstrate the versatility of this model framework by applying it to three battery-cycling datasets consisting of 422 cells under different operating conditions, highlighting the utility of an interpretable diagnostic-free, onboard battery diagnosis and prognosis model.


Continually Evolved Multimodal Foundation Models for Cancer Prognosis

Peng, Jie, Zhou, Shuang, Yang, Longwei, Song, Yiran, Zhang, Mohan, Zhou, Kaixiong, Xie, Feng, Lin, Mingquan, Zhang, Rui, Chen, Tianlong

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cancer prognosis is a critical task that involves predicting patient outcomes and survival rates. To enhance prediction accuracy, previous studies have integrated diverse data modalities, such as clinical notes, medical images, and genomic data, leveraging their complementary information. However, existing approaches face two major limitations. First, they struggle to incorporate newly arrived data with varying distributions into training, such as patient records from different hospitals, thus rendering sub-optimal generalizability and limited utility in real-world applications. Second, most multimodal integration methods rely on simplistic concatenation or task-specific pipelines, which fail to capture the complex interdependencies across modalities. To address these, we propose a continually evolving multi-modal foundation model. Extensive experiments on the TCGA dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, highlighting its potential to advance cancer prognosis by enabling robust and adaptive multimodal integration.