To design an efficient intervention, decision-makers need not only to estimate the total effect of the intervention, but also understand the underlying causal mechanisms driving this effect.

High-dimensional mediation analysis is often associated with a multiple testing problem for detecting significant mediators. Assessing the uncertainty of this detecting process via false discovery rate (FDR) has garnered great interest. To control the FDR in multiple testing, two essential steps are involved: ranking and selection. Existing approaches either construct p-values without calibration or disregard the joint information across tests, leading to conservation in FDR control or non-optimal ranking rules for multiple hypotheses. In this paper, we develop an adaptive mediation detection procedure (referred to as AMDP) to identify relevant mediators while asymptotically controlling the FDR in high-dimensional mediation analysis. AMDP produces the optimal rule for ranking hypotheses and proposes a data-driven strategy to determine the threshold for mediator selection. This novel method captures information from the proportions of composite null hypotheses and the distribution of p-values, which turns the high dimensionality into an advantage instead of a limitation. The numerical studies on synthetic and real data sets illustrate the performances of AMDP compared with existing approaches.

Deciding on an appropriate intervention requires a causal model of a treatment, the outcome, and potential mediators. Causal mediation analysis lets us distinguish between direct and indirect effects of the intervention, but has mostly been studied in a static setting. In healthcare, data come in the form of complex, irregularly sampled time-series, with dynamic interdependencies between a treatment, outcomes, and mediators across time. Existing approaches to dynamic causal mediation analysis are limited to regular measurement intervals, simple parametric models, and disregard long-range mediator--outcome interactions. To address these limitations, we propose a non-parametric mediator--outcome model where the mediator is assumed to be a temporal point process that interacts with the outcome process. With this model, we estimate the direct and indirect effects of an external intervention on the outcome, showing how each of these affects the whole future trajectory. We demonstrate on semi-synthetic data that our method can accurately estimate direct and indirect effects.

For common notions of correlated equilibrium in extensive-form games, computing an optimal (e.g., welfare-maximizing) equilibrium is NP-hard. Other equilibrium notions---communication and certification equilibria---augment the game with a mediator that has the power to both send and receive messages to and from the players---and, in particular, to remember the messages. In this paper, we investigate both notions in extensive-form games from a computational lens. We show that optimal equilibria in both notions can be computed in polynomial time, the latter under a natural additional assumption known in the literature. Our proof works by constructing a {\em mediator-augmented game} of polynomial size that explicitly represents the mediator's decisions and actions.

The challenge of finding compromises between agent proposals is fundamental to AI sub-fields such as argumentation, mediation, and negotiation. Building on this tradition, Elkind et al. (2021) introduced a process for coalition formation that seeks majority-supported proposals preferable to the status quo, using a metric space where each agent has an ideal point. The crucial step in this iterative process involves identifying compromise proposals around which agent coalitions can unite. How to effectively find such compromise proposals, however, remains an open question. We address this gap by formalizing a holistic model that encompasses agent bounded rationality and uncertainty and developing AI models to generate such compromise proposals. We focus on the domain of collaboratively writing text documents -- e.g., to enable the democratic creation of a community constitution. We apply NLP (Natural Language Processing) techniques and utilize LLMs (Large Language Models) to create a semantic metric space for text and develop algorithms to suggest suitable compromise points. To evaluate the effectiveness of our algorithms, we simulate various coalition formation processes and demonstrate the potential of AI to facilitate large-scale democratic text editing, such as collaboratively drafting a constitution, an area where traditional tools are limited.

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In this paper, we develop efficient parameterized algorithms for regimes between these two extremes.

Such systems should be fair and stable.

The full version of this paper is available on arXiv.