What does the data tell us about immigration in Wales? Like many countries, Wales sees a steady flow of people arriving and leaving for other countries each year. The difference between those arriving and those leaving is known as net migration. Focusing on people moving from abroad, latest estimates say Wales' population - which was 3.2 million in June 2024 - had increased by about 23,000 over the previous year as a result of net international migration. A recent YouGov poll found a quarter of people surveyed in Wales believed that immigration, alongside the economy, should be among the issues prioritised by the Welsh government, even though immigration is controlled by the UK government.

Panel data methods are widely used in empirical analysis to address unobserved heterogeneity, but causal inference remains challenging when treatments are endogenous and confounding variables high-dimensional and potentially nonlinear. Standard instrumental variables (IV) estimators, such as two-stage least squares (2SLS), become unreliable when instrument validity requires flexibly conditioning on many covariates with potentially non-linear effects. This paper develops a Double Machine Learning estimator for static panel models with endogenous treatments (panel IV DML), and introduces weak-identification diagnostics for it. We revisit three influential migration studies that use shift-share instruments. In these settings, instrument validity depends on a rich covariate adjustment. In one application, panel IV DML strengthens the predictive power of the instrument and broadly confirms 2SLS results. In the other cases, flexible adjustment makes the instruments weak, leading to substantially more cautious causal inference than conventional 2SLS. Monte Carlo evidence supports these findings, showing that panel IV DML improves estimation accuracy under strong instruments and delivers more reliable inference under weak identification.

The US economy is growing - so where are all the jobs? When 42-year-old Jacob Trigg lost his job as a project manager in the tech industry he didn't think it would take too long to find a new one - he always had before. But more than 2,000 job applications later he is still hunting, trying to make ends meet with jobs in package delivery and landscaping. It's a huge surprise because I've always been able to get a job very easily, said Trigg, who lives in Texas. It wasn't even on my radar to be prepared for more than six months of unemployment.

'She Has a Presence': The Superfans Who Turned Up for Opening Weekend WIRED attended two documentary screening parties--one on each coast--for the First Lady's film. For decades now, people have been wondering: Who is Melania Trump? The First Lady opens her 2024 memoir with a story about leaving her family in Slovenia to immigrate to America as a 26-year-old model. Ten years later, she became an American citizen. "It was not an easy process," she writes. "And my personal experience dealing with the trials of the immigration process opened my eyes to the difficulties faced by all who wish to become US citizens." OK, but what does that mean, exactly? Her husband, in both his terms as president, put harshly enforcing immigration policy at the center of his domestic agenda. This is all to say that I was authentically excited to see, the documentary that Amazon paid $40 million to acquire and $35 million to market. The director, Brett Ratner, previously accused of sexual misconduct by six different women, is currently in the news thanks to his appearance in a photo included in the most recent dump of Epstein files. What is Melania like behind closed doors?

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to answer high-stakes study-abroad questions about admissions, visas, scholarships, and eligibility. Yet it remains unclear how reliably they advise students, and how often otherwise helpful answers drift into unsupported claims (``hallucinations''). This work provides a clear, domain-grounded overview of how current LLMs behave in this setting. Using realistic questions set drawn from ApplyBoard's advising workflows -- an EdTech platform that supports students from discovery to enrolment -- we evaluate two essentials side by side: accuracy (is the information correct and complete?) and hallucination (does the model add content not supported by the question or domain evidence). These questions are categorized by domain scope which can be a single-domain or multi-domain -- when it must integrate evidence across areas such as admissions, visas, and scholarships. To reflect real advising quality, we grade answers with a simple rubric which is correct, partial, or wrong. The rubric is domain-coverage-aware: an answer can be partial if it addresses only a subset of the required domains, and it can be over-scoped if it introduces extra, unnecessary domains; both patterns are captured in our scoring as under-coverage or reduced relevance/hallucination. We also report measures of faithfulness and answer relevance, alongside an aggregate hallucination score, to capture relevance and usefulness. All models are tested with the same questions for a fair, head-to-head comparison. Our goals are to: (1) give a clear picture of which models are most dependable for study-abroad advising, (2) surface common failure modes -- where answers are incomplete, off-topic, or unsupported, and (3) offer a practical, reusable protocol for auditing LLMs before deployment in education and advising contexts.

As LLMs occupy an increasingly important role in society, they are more and more confronted with questions that require them not only to draw on their general knowledge but also to align with certain human value systems. Therefore, studying the alignment of LLMs with human values has become a crucial field of inquiry. Prior work, however, mostly focuses on evaluating the alignment of fully trained models, overlooking the training dynamics by which models learn to express human values. In this work, we investigate how and at which stage value alignment arises during the course of a model's post-training. Our analysis disentangles the effects of post-training algorithms and datasets, measuring both the magnitude and time of value drifts during training. Experimenting with Llama-3 and Qwen-3 models of different sizes and popular supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and preference optimization datasets and algorithms, we find that the SFT phase generally establishes a model's values, and subsequent preference optimization rarely re-aligns these values. Furthermore, using a synthetic preference dataset that enables controlled manipulation of values, we find that different preference optimization algorithms lead to different value alignment outcomes, even when preference data is held constant. Our findings provide actionable insights into how values are learned during post-training and help to inform data curation, as well as the selection of models and algorithms for preference optimization to improve model alignment to human values.

The rise of right-wing populism in Europe has brought to the forefront the significance of analysing social media discourse to understand the dissemination of extremist ideologies and their impact on political outcomes. Twitter, as a platform for interaction and mobilisation, provides a unique window into the everyday communication of far-right supporters. In this paper, we propose a methodology that uses state-of-the-art natural language processing techniques with sociological insights to analyse the MIGR-TWIT corpus of far-right tweets in English and French. We aim to uncover patterns of discourse surrounding migration, hate speech, and persuasion techniques employed by right and far-right actors. By integrating linguistic, sociological, and computational approaches, we seek to offer cross-disciplinary insights into societal dynamics and contribute to a better understanding of contemporary challenges posed by right-wing extremism on social media platforms.

As the Netherlands gears up for a snap parliamentary election on October 29, less than halfway through parliament's usual four-year term following the collapse of the ruling coalition, the likelihood of another win for the country's far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) is mounting. An outright win is next to impossible. The Netherlands has always had a coalition government formed by a minimum of two parties due to its proportional representation electoral system, under which seats in parliament are awarded to parties in proportion to the number of votes they win. It then partnered with three other far-right parties - the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), New Social Contract (NSC), and the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) - to form a coalition government. But in June, PVV made a dramatic exit from the coalition government over a disagreement on immigration policy.

Abstract: This paper aims to explore two compet ing data science meth odologies to attempt answer ing th e question, " Which issues contributed most to voters' choice in the 2024 presidential election? " The methodologies involve novel empirical evidence driven by artificial intelligence (AI) techniques . By using two distinct methods based on natural language processing and clustering analysis to mine over eight thousand user comments on election - related YouTube videos from one right leaning journal, Wall Street Journal, and one left leaning journal, New York Times, during pre - election week, we quantify the frequency of selected issue areas among user comments to infer which issues were most salient to potential voters in the seven days preceding the November 5th election. Empirically, we primarily demonstrate that immigration and democracy were the most frequently and consistently invoked issues in user comments on the analyzed YouTube videos, followed by the issue of identity politics, while inflation was significantly less frequently referenced. These results corroborate certain findings of post - election surveys but also refute the supposed importance of inflation as an election issue. This indicate s that variations on opinion mining, with their analysis of raw user data online, ca n be more revealing than polling and surveys for analyzing election outcomes. Keywords: artificial intelligence; opinion mining; clustering; vot e choice; cleavages 1. Introduction The Democrats lost both houses of Congress and the Presidency to Republicans in the 2024 election, with former president Donald Trump winning all seven swing states and the national popular vote, despite most pre - election polls giving Vice President Kamala Harris and President Trump a roughly equal chance of winning . Most post - election punditry and analysis in the legacy press and alternative media has attributed the Democrats' large loss to two main issues - inflation [59] and immigration [30] However, a growing contingent of analysts has also attributed the election outcome to the Democratic party's association with cultural issues purportedly distant from the median voter's preferences, such as th ose alternatively aggregated under the concept of "identity" or " woke " politics [54, 56] . To this point, three post - election studies illustrate how voters associated Democrats with left - of - center ideas that were ostensibly distant from most voters' priorities. S urvey research from the think tank Third Way demonstrates that Democrats, and thus Kamala Harris, were largely perceived as "too liberal" [15], while a study from More In Common polling over 5, 000 Americans concluded that while inflation was the top concern for every major demographic group across both parties, Americans misperceived LGBT/transgender policies as the top policy priority for Democrats [37] .

Local news stations are often considered to be reliable sources of non-politicized information, particularly local concerns that residents care about. Because these stations are trusted news sources, viewers are particularly susceptible to the information they report. The Sinclair Broadcast group is a broadcasting company that has acquired many local news stations in the last decade. We investigate the effects of local news stations being acquired by Sinclair: how does coverage change? We use computational methods to investigate changes in internet content put out by local news stations before and after being acquired by Sinclair and in comparison to national news outlets. We find that there is clear evidence that local news stations report more frequently on national news at the expense of local topics, and that their coverage of polarizing national topics increases.