From Keywords to Clusters: AI-Driven Analysis of YouTube Comments to Reveal Election Issue Salience in 2024

Abstract: This paper aims to explore two compet ing data science meth odologies to attempt answer ing th e question, " Which issues contributed most to voters' choice in the 2024 presidential election? " The methodologies involve novel empirical evidence driven by artificial intelligence (AI) techniques . By using two distinct methods based on natural language processing and clustering analysis to mine over eight thousand user comments on election - related YouTube videos from one right leaning journal, Wall Street Journal, and one left leaning journal, New York Times, during pre - election week, we quantify the frequency of selected issue areas among user comments to infer which issues were most salient to potential voters in the seven days preceding the November 5th election. Empirically, we primarily demonstrate that immigration and democracy were the most frequently and consistently invoked issues in user comments on the analyzed YouTube videos, followed by the issue of identity politics, while inflation was significantly less frequently referenced. These results corroborate certain findings of post - election surveys but also refute the supposed importance of inflation as an election issue. This indicate s that variations on opinion mining, with their analysis of raw user data online, ca n be more revealing than polling and surveys for analyzing election outcomes. Keywords: artificial intelligence; opinion mining; clustering; vot e choice; cleavages 1. Introduction The Democrats lost both houses of Congress and the Presidency to Republicans in the 2024 election, with former president Donald Trump winning all seven swing states and the national popular vote, despite most pre - election polls giving Vice President Kamala Harris and President Trump a roughly equal chance of winning . Most post - election punditry and analysis in the legacy press and alternative media has attributed the Democrats' large loss to two main issues - inflation [59] and immigration [30] However, a growing contingent of analysts has also attributed the election outcome to the Democratic party's association with cultural issues purportedly distant from the median voter's preferences, such as th ose alternatively aggregated under the concept of "identity" or " woke " politics [54, 56] . To this point, three post - election studies illustrate how voters associated Democrats with left - of - center ideas that were ostensibly distant from most voters' priorities. S urvey research from the think tank Third Way demonstrates that Democrats, and thus Kamala Harris, were largely perceived as "too liberal" [15], while a study from More In Common polling over 5, 000 Americans concluded that while inflation was the top concern for every major demographic group across both parties, Americans misperceived LGBT/transgender policies as the top policy priority for Democrats [37] .