When used as a surrogate objective for maximum likelihood estimation in latent variable models, the evidence lower bound (ELBO) produces state-of-the-art results. Inspired by this, we consider the extension of the ELBO to a family of lower bounds defined by a particle filter's estimator of the marginal likelihood, the filtering variational objectives (FIVOs). FIVOs take the same arguments as the ELBO, but can exploit a model's sequential structure to form tighter bounds. We present results that relate the tightness of FIVO's bound to the variance of the particle filter's estimator by considering the generic case of bounds defined as log-transformed likelihood estimators. Experimentally, we show that training with FIVO results in substantial improvements over training the same model architecture with the ELBO on sequential data.

We study a class of non-parametric density estimators under Bayesian settings. The estimators are obtained by adaptively partitioning the sample space. Under a suitable prior, we analyze the concentration rate of the posterior distribution, and demonstrate that the rate does not directly depend on the dimension of the problem in several special cases. Another advantage of this class of Bayesian density estimators is that it can adapt to the unknown smoothness of the true density function, thus achieving the optimal convergence rate without artificial conditions on the density.

Estimation of mutual information from observed samples is a basic primitive in machine learning, useful in several learning tasks including correlation mining, information bottleneck, Chow-Liu tree, and conditional independence testing in (causal) graphical models. While mutual information is a quantity well-defined for general probability spaces, estimators have been developed only in the special case of discrete or continuous pairs of random variables. Most of these estimators operate using the 3H -principle, i.e., by calculating the three (differential) entropies of X, Y and the pair (X,Y). However, in general mixture spaces, such individual entropies are not well defined, even though mutual information is. In this paper, we develop a novel estimator for estimating mutual information in discrete-continuous mixtures. We prove the consistency of this estimator theoretically as well as demonstrate its excellent empirical performance. This problem is relevant in a wide-array of applications, where some variables are discrete, some continuous, and others are a mixture between continuous and discrete components.

Density ratio estimation is a vital tool in both machine learning and statistical community. However, due to the unbounded nature of density ratio, the estimation proceudre can be vulnerable to corrupted data points, which often pushes the estimated ratio toward infinity. In this paper, we present a robust estimator which automatically identifies and trims outliers. The proposed estimator has a convex formulation, and the global optimum can be obtained via subgradient descent. We analyze the parameter estimation error of this estimator under high-dimensional settings. Experiments are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the estimator.

Discovering a correlation from one variable to another variable is of fundamental scientific and practical interest. While existing correlation measures are suitable for discovering average correlation, they fail to discover hidden or potential correlations. To bridge this gap, (i) we postulate a set of natural axioms that we expect a measure of potential correlation to satisfy; (ii) we show that the rate of information bottleneck, i.e., the hypercontractivity coefficient, satisfies all the proposed axioms; (iii) we provide a novel estimator to estimate the hypercontractivity coefficient from samples; and (iv) we provide numerical experiments demonstrating that this proposed estimator discovers potential correlations among various indicators of WHO datasets, is robust in discovering gene interactions from gene expression time series data, and is statistically more powerful than the estimators for other correlation measures in binary hypothesis testing of canonical examples of potential correlations.

Estimating treatment effects from observational data is challenging due to the missing counterfactuals. Matching is an effective strategy to tackle this problem. The widely used matching estimators such as nearest neighbor matching (NNM) pair the treated units with the most similar control units in terms of covariates, and then estimate treatment effects accordingly. However, the existing matching estimators have poor performance when the distributions of control and treatment groups are unbalanced. Moreover, theoretical analysis suggests that the bias of causal effect estimation would increase with the dimension of covariates. In this paper, we aim to address these problems by learning low-dimensional balanced and nonlinear representations (BNR) for observational data. In particular, we convert counterfactual prediction as a classification problem, develop a kernel learning model with domain adaptation constraint, and design a novel matching estimator. The dimension of covariates will be significantly reduced after projecting data to a low-dimensional subspace. Experiments on several synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Approximate probabilistic inference algorithms are central to many fields. Examples include sequential Monte Carlo inference in robotics, variational inference in machine learning, and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference in statistics. A key problem faced by practitioners is measuring the accuracy of an approximate inference algorithm on a specific data set. This paper introduces the auxiliary inference divergence estimator (AIDE), an algorithm for measuring the accuracy of approximate inference algorithms. AIDE is based on the observation that inference algorithms can be treated as probabilistic models and the random variables used within the inference algorithm can be viewed as auxiliary variables. This view leads to a new estimator for the symmetric KL divergence between the approximating distributions of two inference algorithms. The paper illustrates application of AIDE to algorithms for inference in regression, hidden Markov, and Dirichlet process mixture models. The experiments show that AIDE captures the qualitative behavior of a broad class of inference algorithms and can detect failure modes of inference algorithms that are missed by standard heuristics.

Early stopping of iterative algorithms is a widely-used form of regularization in statistical learning, commonly used in conjunction with boosting and related gradient-type algorithms. Although consistency results have been established in some settings, such estimators are less well-understood than their analogues based on penalized regularization. In this paper, for a relatively broad class of loss functions and boosting algorithms (including $L^2$-boost, LogitBoost and AdaBoost, among others), we connect the performance of a stopped iterate to the localized Rademacher/Gaussian complexity of the associated function class. This connection allows us to show that local fixed point analysis, now standard in the analysis of penalized estimators, can be used to derive optimal stopping rules. We derive such stopping rules in detail for various kernel classes, and illustrate the correspondence of our theory with practice for Sobolev kernel classes.

Given a full rank matrix X with more columns than rows consider the task of estimating the pseudo inverse $X^+$ based on the pseudo inverse of a sampled subset of columns (of size at least the number of rows). We show that this is possible if the subset of columns is chosen proportional to the squared volume spanned by the rows of the chosen submatrix (ie, volume sampling). The resulting estimator is unbiased and surprisingly the covariance of the estimator also has a closed form: It equals a specific factor times $X^+X^{+\top}$. Pseudo inverse plays an important part in solving the linear least squares problem, where we try to predict a label for each column of $X$. We assume labels are expensive and we are only given the labels for the small subset of columns we sample from $X$. Using our methods we show that the weight vector of the solution for the sub problem is an unbiased estimator of the optimal solution for the whole problem based on all column labels. We believe that these new formulas establish a fundamental connection between linear least squares and volume sampling. We use our methods to obtain an algorithm for volume sampling that is faster than state-of-the-art and for obtaining bounds for the total loss of the estimated least-squares solution on all labeled columns.

This paper studies the evaluation of policies that recommend an ordered set of items (e.g., a ranking) based on some context---a common scenario in web search, ads, and recommendation. We build on techniques from combinatorial bandits to introduce a new practical estimator that uses logged data to estimate a policy's performance. A thorough empirical evaluation on real-world data reveals that our estimator is accurate in a variety of settings, including as a subroutine in a learning-to-rank task, where it achieves competitive performance. We derive conditions under which our estimator is unbiased---these conditions are weaker than prior heuristics for slate evaluation---and experimentally demonstrate a smaller bias than parametric approaches, even when these conditions are violated. Finally, our theory and experiments also show exponential savings in the amount of required data compared with general unbiased estimators.