Policy targets evolve faster than the Couple Model Intercomparison Project cycles, complicating adaptation and mitigation planning that must often contend with outdated projections. Climate model output emulators address this gap by offering inexpensive surrogates that can rapidly explore alternative futures while staying close to Earth System Model (ESM) behavior. We focus on emulators designed to provide inputs to impact models. Using monthly ESM fields of near-surface temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed, we show that deep generative models have the potential to model jointly the distribution of variables relevant for impacts. The specific model we propose uses score-based diffusion on a spherical mesh and runs on a single mid-range graphical processing unit. We introduce a thorough suite of diagnostics to compare emulator outputs with their parent ESMs, including their probability densities, cross-variable correlations, time of emergence, or tail behavior. We evaluate performance across three distinct ESMs in both pre-industrial and forced regimes. The results show that the emulator produces distributions that closely match the ESM outputs and captures key forced responses. They also reveal important failure cases, notably for variables with a strong regime shift in the seasonal cycle. Although not a perfect match to the ESM, the inaccuracies of the emulator are small relative to the scale of internal variability in ESM projections. We therefore argue that it shows potential to be useful in supporting impact assessment. We discuss priorities for future development toward daily resolution, finer spatial scales, and bias-aware training. Code is made available at https://github.com/shahineb/climemu.

In this work, we introduce the Equivariance Seeker Model (ESM), a data-driven method for discovering the underlying finite equivariant symmetry group of an arbitrary function. ESM achieves this by optimizing a loss function that balances equivariance preservation with the penalization of redundant solutions, ensuring the complete and accurate identification of all symmetry transformations. We apply this framework specifically to dynamical systems, identifying their symmetry groups directly from observed trajectory data. To demonstrate its versatility, we test ESM on multiple systems in two distinct scenarios: (i) when the governing equations are known theoretically and (ii) when they are unknown, and the equivariance finding relies solely on observed data. The latter case highlights ESM's fully data-driven capability, as it requires no prior knowledge of the system's equations to operate.

Regional high-resolution climate projections are crucial for many applications, such as agriculture, hydrology, and natural hazard risk assessment. Dynamical downscaling, the state-of-the-art method to produce localized future climate information, involves running a regional climate model (RCM) driven by an Earth System Model (ESM), but it is too computationally expensive to apply to large climate projection ensembles. We propose a novel approach combining dynamical downscaling with generative artificial intelligence to reduce the cost and improve the uncertainty estimates of downscaled climate projections. In our framework, an RCM dynamically downscales ESM output to an intermediate resolution, followed by a generative diffusion model that further refines the resolution to the target scale. This approach leverages the generalizability of physics-based models and the sampling efficiency of diffusion models, enabling the downscaling of large multi-model ensembles. We evaluate our method against dynamically-downscaled climate projections from the CMIP6 ensemble. Our results demonstrate its ability to provide more accurate uncertainty bounds on future regional climate than alternatives such as dynamical downscaling of smaller ensembles, or traditional empirical statistical downscaling methods. We also show that dynamical-generative downscaling results in significantly lower errors than bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD), and captures more accurately the spectra and multivariate correlations of meteorological fields. These characteristics make the dynamical-generative framework a flexible, accurate, and efficient way to downscale large ensembles of climate projections, currently out of reach for pure dynamical downscaling.

Protein - protein interacnullons (PPIs) are associated with various diseases, including cancer, infecnullons, and neurodegeneranullve disorders. Obtaining three - dimensional structural informanullon on these PPIs serves as a foundanullon to interfere with those or to guid e drug design. Various strategies can be followed to model those complexes, all typically resulnullng in a large number of models. A challenging st e p in this process is the idennullfica-nullon of good models ( near - nanullve PPI conformanullons) from the large pool of generated models . T o address this challenge, we previously developed DeepRank - GNN - esm, a graph - based deep learning algorithm for ranking modelled PP I structures harnessing the power of protein language model s .

The task of Text-to-SQL enables anyone to retrieve information from SQL databases using natural language. Despite several challenges, recent models have made remarkable advancements in this task using large language models (LLMs). Interestingly, we find that LLM-based models without fine-tuning exhibit distinct natures compared to their fine-tuned counterparts, leading to inadequacies in current evaluation metrics to accurately convey their performance. Thus, we analyze the two primary metrics, Test Suite Execution Accuracy (EXE) and Exact Set Matching Accuracy (ESM), to examine their robustness for this task and address shortcomings. We compare the performance of 9 LLM-based models using EXE, the original ESM, and our improved ESM (called ESM+). Our results show that EXE and ESM have high false positive and negative rates of 11.3% and 13.9%, while ESM+ gives those of 0.1% and 2.6% respectively, providing a significantly more stable evaluation. We release the ESM+ script as open-source for the community to contribute, while enjoying a more reliable assessment of Text-to-SQL.

Earth system models (ESMs) are the principal tools used in climate science to generate future climate projections under various atmospheric emissions scenarios on a global or regional scale. Generative deep learning approaches are suitable for emulating these tools due to their computational efficiency and ability, once trained, to generate realizations in a fraction of the time required by ESMs. We extend previous work that used a generative probabilistic diffusion model to emulate ESMs by targeting the joint emulation of multiple variables, temperature and precipitation, by a single diffusion model. Joint generation of multiple variables is critical to generate realistic samples of phenomena resulting from the interplay of multiple variables. The diffusion model emulator takes in the monthly mean-maps of temperature and precipitation and produces the daily values of each of these variables that exhibit statistical properties similar to those generated by ESMs. Our results show the outputs from our extended model closely resemble those from ESMs on various climate metrics including dry spells and hot streaks, and that the joint distribution of temperature and precipitation in our sample closely matches those of ESMs.

Accurate and high-resolution Earth system model (ESM) simulations are essential to assess the ecological and socio-economic impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are computationally too expensive. Recent machine learning approaches have shown promising results in downscaling ESM simulations, outperforming state-of-the-art statistical approaches. However, existing methods require computationally costly retraining for each ESM and extrapolate poorly to climates unseen during training. We address these shortcomings by learning a consistency model (CM) that efficiently and accurately downscales arbitrary ESM simulations without retraining in a zero-shot manner. Our foundation model approach yields probabilistic downscaled fields at resolution only limited by the observational reference data. We show that the CM outperforms state-of-the-art diffusion models at a fraction of computational cost while maintaining high controllability on the downscaling task. Further, our method generalizes to climate states unseen during training without explicitly formulated physical constraints.

The 40th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) took place Honolulu, Hawai'i from 23-29 July 2023. There were four invited talks as part of the programme, and in this post we summarise the presentation by Shakir Mohamed – "Machine learning with social purpose". In a talk of three interwoven parts, Shakir's aim was to encourage the amplification and acceleration of work on machine learning with social purpose. He is passionate about using machine learning to contribute to overcoming some of the global challenges that we face, and, as well as demonstrating some of his research in this space, he provided guidance on how researchers can widen their horizons and consider the social implications of their work. Modelling of weather and climate can have a big impact on society, with such models often providing the basis for decisions taken by policy makers.

Earth System Models (ESMs) are the primary tools for investigating future Earth system states at time scales from decades to centuries, especially in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. State-of-the-art ESMs can reproduce the observational global mean temperature anomalies of the last 150 years. Nevertheless, ESMs need further improvements, most importantly regarding (i) the large spread in their estimates of climate sensitivity, i.e., the temperature response to increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, (ii) the modeled spatial patterns of key variables such as temperature and precipitation, (iii) their representation of extreme weather events, and (iv) their representation of multistable Earth system components and their ability to predict associated abrupt transitions. Here, we argue that making ESMs automatically differentiable has huge potential to advance ESMs, especially with respect to these key shortcomings. First, automatic differentiability would allow objective calibration of ESMs, i.e., the selection of optimal values with respect to a cost function for a large number of free parameters, which are currently tuned mostly manually. Second, recent advances in Machine Learning (ML) and in the amount, accuracy, and resolution of observational data promise to be helpful with at least some of the above aspects because ML may be used to incorporate additional information from observations into ESMs. Automatic differentiability is an essential ingredient in the construction of such hybrid models, combining process-based ESMs with ML components. We document recent work showcasing the potential of automatic differentiation for a new generation of substantially improved, data-informed ESMs.

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have significant socioeconomic and environmental consequences. However, the computational demands of running a sufficient number of simulations to analyze the risks are often prohibitive. In this paper we demonstrate that diffusion models -- a class of generative deep learning models -- can effectively emulate the spatio-temporal trends of ESMs under previously unseen climate scenarios, while only requiring a small fraction of the computational resources. We present a diffusion model that is conditioned on monthly averages of temperature or precipitation on a $96 \times 96$ global grid, and produces daily values that are both realistic and consistent with those averages. Our results show that the output from our diffusion model closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM it emulates in terms of the frequency of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.