Variational inference (VI) is a popular approach in Bayesian inference, that looks for the best approximation of the posterior distribution within a parametric family, minimizing a loss that is typically the (reverse) Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. In this paper, we focus on the following parametric family: mixtures of isotropic Gaussians (i.e., with diagonal covariance matrices proportional to the identity) and uniform weights. We develop a variational framework and provide efficient algorithms suited for this family. In contrast with mixtures of Gaussian with generic covariance matrices, this choice presents a balance between accurate approximations of multimodal Bayesian posteriors, while being memory and computationally efficient. Our algorithms implement gradient descent on the location of the mixture components (the modes of the Gaussians), and either (an entropic) Mirror or Bures descent on their variance parameters. We illustrate the performance of our algorithms on numerical experiments.

We propose a practical sequential test for auditing differential privacy guarantees of black-box mechanisms. The test processes streams of mechanisms' outputs providing anytime-valid inference while controlling Type I error, overcoming the fixed sample size limitation of previous batch auditing methods. Experiments show this test detects violations with sample sizes that are orders of magnitude smaller than existing methods, reducing this number from 50K to a few hundred examples, across diverse realistic mechanisms. Notably, it identifies DP-SGD privacy violations in under one training run, unlike prior methods needing full model training.

Performative prediction is a framework accounting for the shift in the data distribution induced by the prediction of a model deployed in the real world. Ensuring convergence to a stable solution--one at which the post-deployment data distribution no longer changes--is crucial in settings where model predictions can influence future data. This paper, for the first time, extends the Repeated Risk Minimization (RRM) algorithm class by utilizing historical datasets from previous retraining snapshots, yielding a class of algorithms that we call Affine Risk Minimizers that converges to a performatively stable point for a broader class of problems. We introduce a new upper bound for methods that use only the final iteration of the dataset and prove for the first time the tightness of both this new bound and the previous existing bounds within the same regime. We also prove that our new algorithm class can surpass the lower bound for standard RRM, thus breaking the prior lower bound, and empirically observe faster convergence to the stable point on various performative prediction benchmarks. We offer at the same time the first lower bound analysis for RRM within the class of Affine Risk Minimizers, quantifying the potential improvements in convergence speed that could be achieved with other variants in our scheme.

We consider the privacy amplification properties of a sampling scheme in which a user's data is used in k steps chosen randomly and uniformly from a sequence (or set) of t steps. This sampling scheme has been recently applied in the context of differentially private optimization [Chua et al., 2024a, Choquette-Choo et al., 2025] and is also motivated by communication-efficient high-dimensional private aggregation [Asi et al., 2025]. Existing analyses of this scheme either rely on privacy amplification by shuffling which leads to overly conservative bounds or require Monte Carlo simulations that are computationally prohibitive in most practical scenarios. We give the first theoretical guarantees and numerical estimation algorithms for this sampling scheme. In particular, we demonstrate that the privacy guarantees of random k-out-of-t allocation can be upper bounded by the privacy guarantees of the well-studied independent (or Poisson) subsampling in which each step uses the user's data with probability (1+o(1))k/t. Further, we provide two additional analysis techniques that lead to numerical improvements in several parameter regimes. Altogether, our bounds give efficiently-computable and nearly tight numerical results for random allocation applied to Gaussian noise addition.

There is growing interest in using machine learning (ML) to support clinical diagnosis, but most approaches rely on static, fully observed datasets and fail to reflect the sequential, resource-aware reasoning clinicians use in practice. Diagnosis remains complex and error prone, especially in high-pressure or resource-limited settings, underscoring the need for frameworks that help clinicians make timely and cost-effective decisions. We propose ACTMED(Adaptive Clinical Test selection via Model-based Experimental Design), a diagnostic framework that integrates Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) with large language models (LLMs) to better emulate real-world diagnostic reasoning. At each step, ACTMED selects the test expected to yield the greatest reduction in diagnostic uncertainty for a given patient. LLMs act as flexible simulators, generating plausible patient state distributions and supporting belief updates without requiring structured, task-specific training data. Clinicians can remain in the loop; reviewing test suggestions, interpreting intermediate outputs, and applying clinical judgment throughout. We evaluate ACTMEDon real-world datasets and show it can optimize test selection to improve diagnostic accuracy, interpretability, and resource use. This represents a step toward transparent, adaptive, and clinician-aligned diagnostic systems that generalize across settings with reduced reliance on domain-specific data.

In lar the this ge y paper rely BD. on Ho, we the we quantify v DP' er, s producing information-g the DP' these s information-g athe beha ring viors progress, athering is challenging which progress is in for visible by the estimatPP to the being observ the ations, prediction and uncertainty accordingly of propose privileged the observ frame ations work reconstructed of Uncertainty-Sensiti from partial ve Pri combines PP vile to choose ged re Learning w actions ard transformation (USPL).

A common paradigm to improve the performance of large language models is optimizing for a reward model. Reward models assign a numerical score to an LLM's output that indicates, for example, how likely it is to align with user preferences or safety goals. However, reward models are never perfect. They inevitably function as proxies for complex desiderata such as correctness, helpfulness, and safety. By overoptimizing for a misspecified reward, we can subvert intended alignment goals and reduce overall performance - a phenomenon commonly referred to as reward hacking.

Direct preference optimization (DPO) is widely used as a simple and stable method for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences. This paper investigates a generalized DPO loss that enables a policy model to match the target policy from a likelihood ratio estimation perspective. The ratio of the target policy provides a unique identification of the policy distribution without relying on reward models or partition functions. This allows the generalized loss to retain both simplicity and theoretical guarantees, which prior work such as f-PO fails to achieve simultaneously. We propose Bregman preference optimization (BPO), a generalized framework for ratio matching that provides a family of objective functions achieving target policy optimality.

We introduce a highly expressive yet distinctly tractable family for black-box variational inference (BBVI). Each member of this family is a weighted product of experts (PoE), and each weighted expert in the product is proportional to a multivariate t-distribution. These products of experts can model distributions with skew, heavy tails, and multiple modes, but to use them for BBVI, we must be able to sample from their densities. We show how to do this by reformulating these products of experts as latent variable models with auxiliary Dirichlet random variables. These Dirichlet variables emerge from a Feynman identity, originally developed for loop integrals in quantum field theory, that expresses the product of multiple fractions (or in our case, t-distributions) as an integral over the simplex.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong generative capabilities but remain prone to inconsistencies and hallucinations. We introduce Peer Elicitation Games (PEG), a training-free, game-theoretic framework for aligning LLMs through a peer elicitation mechanism involving a generator and multiple discriminators instantiated from distinct base models. Discriminators interact in a peer evaluation setting, where utilities are computed using a determinant-based mutual information score that provably incentivizes truthful reporting without requiring ground-truth labels. We establish theoretical guarantees showing that each agent, via online learning, achieves sublinear regret in the sense their cumulative performance approaches that of the best fixed truthful strategy in hindsight. Moreover, we prove last-iterate convergence to a truthful Nash equilibrium, ensuring that the actual policies used by agents converge to stable and truthful behavior over time. Empirical evaluations across multiple benchmarks demonstrate significant improvements in factual accuracy.