Previous work has focused mainly on bounding either the expected loss of a predictor or the probability that an individual prediction will incur a loss value in a specified range.

Boltzmann machines are powerful distributions that have been shown to be an effective prior over binary latent variables in variational autoencoders (VAEs).

Many approaches are available to reliably model univariate distributions of real-valued variables.

The importance-weighted extension is appropriate for estimating complete counterfactual distributions of rewards given data from a randomized experiment, e.g.,

Estimation of a complete univariate distribution from a sequence of observations is a useful primitive for both manual and automated decision making. This problem has received extensive attention in the i.i.d.

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data distribution shifts in fully adversarial environments, resulting in overly conservative prediction sets. We propose Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP), an online conformal prediction algorithm incorporating underlying data pattern into the update rule. Through estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores, COP produces tighter prediction sets when predictable pattern exists, while retaining valid coverage guarantees even when estimates are inaccurate. We establish a joint bound on coverage and regret, which further confirms the validity of our approach. We also prove that COP achieves distribution-free, finite-sample coverage under arbitrary learning rates and can converge when scores are $i.i.d.$. The experimental results also show that COP can achieve valid coverage and construct shorter prediction intervals than other baselines.

We present a systematic theoretical framework that interprets masked diffusion models (MDMs) as solutions to energy minimization problems in discrete optimal transport. Specifically, we prove that three distinct energy formulations--kinetic, conditional kinetic, and geodesic energy--are mathematically equivalent under the structure of MDMs, and that MDMs minimize all three when the mask schedule satisfies a closed-form optimality condition. This unification not only clarifies the theoretical foundations of MDMs, but also motivates practical improvements in sampling. By parameterizing interpolation schedules via Beta distributions, we reduce the schedule design space to a tractable 2D search, enabling efficient post-training tuning without model modification. Experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks demonstrate that our energy-inspired schedules outperform hand-crafted baselines, particularly in low-step sampling settings.

Probabilistic forecasting is not only a way to add more information to a prediction of the future, but it also builds on weaknesses in point prediction. Sudden changes in a time series can still be captured by a cumulative distribution function (CDF), while a point prediction is likely to miss it entirely. The modeling of CDFs within forecasts has historically been limited to parametric approaches, but due to recent advances, this no longer has to be the case. We aim to advance the fields of probabilistic forecasting and monotonic networks by connecting them and propose an approach that permits the forecasting of implicit, complete, and nonparametric CDFs. For this purpose, we propose an adaptation to deep lattice networks (DLN) for monotonically constrained simultaneous/implicit quantile regression in time series forecasting. Quantile regression usually produces quantile crossovers, which need to be prevented to achieve a legitimate CDF. By leveraging long short term memory units (LSTM) as the embedding layer, and spreading quantile inputs to all sub-lattices of a DLN with an extended output size, we can produce a multi-horizon forecast of an implicit CDF due to the monotonic constraintability of DLNs that prevent quantile crossovers. We compare and evaluate our approach's performance to relevant state of the art within the context of a highly relevant application of time series forecasting: Day-ahead, hourly forecasts of solar irradiance observations. Our experiments show that the adaptation of a DLN performs just as well or even better than an unconstrained approach. Further comparison of the adapted DLN against a scalable monotonic neural network shows that our approach performs better. With this adaptation of DLNs, we intend to create more interest and crossover investigations in techniques of monotonic neural networks and probabilistic forecasting.

Repeated multi-unit auctions, where a seller allocates multiple identical items over many rounds, are common mechanisms in electricity markets and treasury auctions. We compare the two predominant formats: uniform-price and discriminatory auctions, focusing on the perspective of a single bidder learning to bid against stochastic adversaries. We characterize the learning difficulty in each format, showing that the regret scales similarly for both auction formats under both full-information and bandit feedback, as $\tildeΘ ( \sqrt{T} )$ and $\tildeΘ ( T^{2/3} )$, respectively. However, analysis beyond worst-case regret reveals structural differences: uniform-price auctions may admit faster learning rates, with regret scaling as $\tildeΘ ( \sqrt{T} )$ in settings where discriminatory auctions remain at $\tildeΘ ( T^{2/3} )$. Finally, we provide a specific analysis for auctions in which the other participants are symmetric and have unit-demand, and show that in these instances, a similar regret rate separation appears.