This work is about estimating when a conditional generative model (CGM) can solve an in-context learning (ICL) problem. An in-context learning (ICL) problem comprises a CGM, a dataset, and a prediction task. The CGM could be a multimodal foundation model; the dataset, a collection of patient histories, test results, and recorded diagnoses; and the prediction task to communicate a diagnosis to a new patient. A Bayesian interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM computes a posterior predictive distribution over an unknown Bayesian model defining a joint distribution over latent explanations and observable data. From this perspective, Bayesian model criticism is a reasonable approach to assess the suitability of a given CGM for an ICL problem. However, such approaches--like posterior predictive checks (PPCs)--often assume that we can sample from the likelihood and posterior defined by the Bayesian model, which are not explicitly given for contemporary CGMs. To address this, we show when ancestral sampling from the predictive distribution of a CGM is equivalent to sampling datasets from the posterior predictive of the assumed Bayesian model. Then we develop the generative predictive p-value, which enables PPCs and their cousins for contemporary CGMs. The generative predictive p-value can then be used in a statistical decision procedure to determine when the model is appropriate for an ICL problem. Our method only requires generating queries and responses from a CGM and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method on synthetic tabular, imaging, and natural language ICL tasks using large language models. An in-context learning (ICL) problem comprises a conditional generative model (CGM), a dataset, and a prediction task (Brown et al., 2020; Dong et al., 2022).

We demonstrate that recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL) combined with simple architectural changes significantly improves generalization on the ProcGen benchmark. These changes are frame stacking, replacing 2D convolutional layers with 3D convolutional layers, and scaling up the number of convolutional kernels per layer. Experimental results using a single set of hyperparameters across all environments show a 37.9% reduction in the optimality gap compared to the baseline (from 0.58 to 0.36). This performance matches or exceeds current state-of-the-art methods. The proposed changes are largely orthogonal and therefore complementary to the existing approaches for improving generalization in RL, and our results suggest that further exploration in this direction could yield substantial improvements in addressing generalization challenges in deep reinforcement learning. "The only thing that is constant is change."

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate surprising capabilities, but we do not understand how they are implemented. One hypothesis suggests that these capabilities are primarily executed by small subnetworks within the LLM, known as circuits. But how can we evaluate this hypothesis? In this paper, we formalize a set of criteria that a circuit is hypothesized to meet and develop a suite of hypothesis tests to evaluate how well circuits satisfy them. The criteria focus on the extent to which the LLM's behavior is preserved, the degree of localization of this behavior, and whether the circuit is minimal. We apply these tests to six circuits described in the research literature. We find that synthetic circuits -- circuits that are hard-coded in the model -- align with the idealized properties. Circuits discovered in Transformer models satisfy the criteria to varying degrees. To facilitate future empirical studies of circuits, we created the \textit{circuitry} package, a wrapper around the \textit{TransformerLens} library, which abstracts away lower-level manipulations of hooks and activations. The software is available at \url{https://github.com/blei-lab/circuitry}.

This work is about estimating the hallucination rate for in-context learning (ICL) with Generative AI. In ICL, a conditional generative model (CGM) is prompted with a dataset and asked to make a prediction based on that dataset. The Bayesian interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM is calculating a posterior predictive distribution over an unknown Bayesian model of a latent parameter and data. With this perspective, we define a \textit{hallucination} as a generated prediction that has low-probability under the true latent parameter. We develop a new method that takes an ICL problem -- that is, a CGM, a dataset, and a prediction question -- and estimates the probability that a CGM will generate a hallucination. Our method only requires generating queries and responses from the model and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method on synthetic regression and natural language ICL tasks using large language models.

The discovery of therapeutics to treat genetically-driven pathologies relies on identifying genes involved in the underlying disease mechanisms. Existing approaches search over the billions of potential interventions to maximize the expected influence on the target phenotype. However, to reduce the risk of failure in future stages of trials, practical experiment design aims to find a set of interventions that maximally change a target phenotype via diverse mechanisms. We propose DiscoBAX, a sample-efficient method for maximizing the rate of significant discoveries per experiment while simultaneously probing for a wide range of diverse mechanisms during a genomic experiment campaign. We provide theoretical guarantees of approximate optimality under standard assumptions, and conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation covering both synthetic as well as real-world experimental design tasks. DiscoBAX outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods for experimental design, selecting effective and diverse perturbations in biological systems.

This paper introduces an effective and practical step toward approximate Bayesian inference in on-policy actor-critic deep reinforcement learning. This step manifests as three simple modifications to the Asynchronous Advantage Actor-Critic (A3C) algorithm: (1) applying a ReLU function to advantage estimates, (2) spectral normalization of actor-critic weights, and (3) incorporating dropout as a Bayesian approximation. We prove under standard assumptions that restricting policy updates to positive advantages optimizes for value by maximizing a lower bound on the value function plus an additive term. We show that the additive term is bounded proportional to the Lipschitz constant of the value function, which offers theoretical grounding for spectral normalization of critic weights. Finally, our application of dropout corresponds to approximate Bayesian inference over both the actor and critic parameters, which enables prudent state-aware exploration around the modes of the actor via Thompson sampling. Extensive empirical evaluations on diverse benchmarks reveal the superior performance of our approach compared to existing on- and off-policy algorithms. We demonstrate significant improvements for median and interquartile mean metrics over PPO, SAC, and TD3 on the MuJoCo continuous control benchmark. Moreover, we see improvement over PPO in the challenging ProcGen generalization benchmark.

We introduce BatchGFN -- a novel approach for pool-based active learning that uses generative flow networks to sample sets of data points proportional to a batch reward. With an appropriate reward function to quantify the utility of acquiring a batch, such as the joint mutual information between the batch and the model parameters, BatchGFN is able to construct highly informative batches for active learning in a principled way. We show our approach enables sampling near-optimal utility batches at inference time with a single forward pass per point in the batch in toy regression problems. This alleviates the computational complexity of batch-aware algorithms and removes the need for greedy approximations to find maximizers for the batch reward. We also present early results for amortizing training across acquisition steps, which will enable scaling to real-world tasks.

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data is a crucial task across many fields, helping policy and decision-makers take better actions. There has been recent progress on robust and efficient methods for estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function, but these methods often do not take into account the risk of hidden confounding, which could arbitrarily and unknowingly bias any causal estimate based on observational data. We propose a meta-learner called the B-Learner, which can efficiently learn sharp bounds on the CATE function under limits on the level of hidden confounding. We derive the B-Learner by adapting recent results for sharp and valid bounds of the average treatment effect (Dorn et al., 2021) into the framework given by Kallus & Oprescu (2023) for robust and model-agnostic learning of conditional distributional treatment effects. The B-Learner can use any function estimator such as random forests and deep neural networks, and we prove its estimates are valid, sharp, efficient, and have a quasi-oracle property with respect to the constituent estimators under more general conditions than existing methods. Semi-synthetic experimental comparisons validate the theoretical findings, and we use real-world data to demonstrate how the method might be used in practice.

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding variables -- causal parents of both the treatment and the outcome -- are included as covariates. Unfortunately, given observational data alone, we cannot know with certainty that this criterion is satisfied. Sensitivity analyses provide principled ways to give bounds on causal estimates when confounding variables are hidden. While much attention is focused on sensitivity analyses for discrete-valued treatments, much less is paid to continuous-valued treatments. We present novel methodology to bound both average and conditional average continuous-valued treatment-effect estimates when they cannot be point identified due to hidden confounding. A semi-synthetic benchmark on multiple datasets shows our method giving tighter coverage of the true dose-response curve than a recently proposed continuous sensitivity model and baselines. Finally, we apply our method to a real-world observational case study to demonstrate the value of identifying dose-dependent causal effects.

We introduce a gradient-based approach for the problem of Bayesian optimal experimental design to learn causal models in a batch setting -- a critical component for causal discovery from finite data where interventions can be costly or risky. Existing methods rely on greedy approximations to construct a batch of experiments while using black-box methods to optimize over a single target-state pair to intervene with. In this work, we completely dispose of the black-box optimization techniques and greedy heuristics and instead propose a conceptually simple end-to-end gradient-based optimization procedure to acquire a set of optimal intervention target-state pairs. Such a procedure enables parameterization of the design space to efficiently optimize over a batch of multi-target-state interventions, a setting which has hitherto not been explored due to its complexity. We demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms baselines and existing acquisition strategies in both single-target and multi-target settings across a number of synthetic datasets.