AI can't predict a child's future success, no matter how much data we give it

A trio of Princeton social scientists recently conducted a mass experiment with 160 research teams to see if any of them could predict how children's lives would turn out. The participants were given fifteen years of data and were allowed to use any technique they wanted, from good old fashioned statistical analysis to modern-day artificial intelligence. That's because artificial intelligence – much like psychics and headless chickens – cannot predict the future. Sure, it can predict trends and in some cases provide valuable insights that can help industries make the best decisions, but determining whether or not a child will become successful requires a level of prescience that brute-force mathematics can't provide. We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study.