The 4 Things You Need for a Tech Bubble

On this episode of, guest Brian Merchant walks us through a historical framework he used to analyze whether AI fits the classic signs of an economic bubble--and what that means for all of us. Chatter about an AI bubble has been everywhere lately, and top tech companies like Google, Meta, and Microsoft have doubled down on their AI investments for 2026. But how have analysts in the past accurately identified forming tech bubbles? Hosts Michael Calore and Lauren Goode sit down with Brian Merchant, WIRED contributor and author of the newsletter to break down the four criteria some researchers have used in the past to understand and brace for the worst. Please help us improve by filling out our listener survey . Write to us at uncannyvalley@wired.com . You can always listen to this week's podcast through the audio player on this page, but if you want to subscribe for free to get every episode, here's how: If you're on an iPhone or iPad, open the app called Podcasts, or just tap this link . Hey Lauren, how are you doing? It's earnings season, so a lot of us on the business desk here at WIRED have been tuning into tech companies earnings reports and their earnings calls. And I guess that basically means it's CapEx season. Now that I'm a business desk reporter, I say CapEx. I throw it around at parties. But we are seeing a trend in how tech companies are sleeping on piles of money, but they aren't just sleeping on it. They're sharing big plans to spend on it, and especially to spend on AI infrastructure. And this is all partly what is fueling all of this talk about a bubble, which we touched on a little bit a couple of weeks ago with our colleague Molly Taft.