A Fundamental Theorem for Epidemiology

The work of an Italian mathematician in the 1930s may hold the key to epidemic modeling. That's because models that try to replicate reality in all its detail have proven hard to steer during this crisis, leading to poor predictions despite noble and urgent efforts to recalibrate them. On the other hand overly stylized compartmental models have run headlong into paradoxes such as Sweden's herd immunity. This approach is represented in the picture above. The important thing to note is that we are not attempting to find a model that is close to the truth, only close to the orbit. This will make a lot more sense after Section 1, I promise.