AI experts predict the future: Truck drivers out of jobs by 2027, surgeons by 2053 ZDNet

Google has hung up its AlphaGo gloves after trouncing the world's best human Go players, but when will AI beat humans at other tasks, such as writing a best-selling novel or doing surgery? To answer that question, a team of researchers led by Katja Grace of Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute surveyed several hundred machine-learning experts to get their educated guess. The researchers used the responses to calculate the median number of years it would take for AI to reach key milestones in human capabilities. Teachers may need to be on the alert for machine-written essays by 2026 and truck drivers could be made redundant by 2027, according to the results. Meanwhile, AI will surpass human capabilities in retail by 2031.