Probability of an Approaching AI Winter

Both industries and governments alike have invested significantly in the AI field, with many AI-related startups established in the last 5 years. If another AI winter were to come about many people could lose their jobs, and many startups might have to shut down, as has happened before. Moreover, the economic difference between an approaching winter period or ongoing success is estimated to be at least tens of billions of dollars by 2025, according to McKinsey & Company. This paper does not aim to discuss whether progress in AI is to be desired or not. Instead, the purpose of the discussions and results presented herein is to to inform the reader of how likely progress in AI research is. For a detailed overview of both AI winters check out my first and second medium article on the topic. In this section, the central causes of the AI winters are extracted from the above discussion of previous winters.