How would you explain Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to a layperson?
First, we need to understand what is a Markov chain. Consider the following weather example from Wikipedia. Suppose that weather on any given day can be classified into two states only: sunny and rainy. Since, the next day's weather is either sunny or rainy it follows that: Q1: If the weather is sunny today then what is the weather likely to be tomorrow? A1: Since, we do not know what is going to happen for sure, the best we can say is that there is a $90\%$ chance that it is likely to be sunny and $10\%$ that it will be rainy.
Jun-7-2018, 22:17:31 GMT