Defying Moore: Envisioning the Economics of a Semiconductor Revolution through 12nm Specialization

The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant transformation, raising questions about the advantages traditionally associated with Moore's Law and Dennard scaling. This shift highlights four key trends that intersect with technology, economics, and society. The first trend is the perceived end of Moore's Law. Analysis indicates that the benefits of advances in semiconductor technology--specifically in terms of cost, energy efficiency, and density--are diminishing (see Table 1). This suggests a departure from the era where technological advances consistently delivered substantial economic and performance improvements.