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Semiparametric Efficient Bilevel Gradient Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bilevel optimization provides a natural framework for problems in which one learning task is constrained by the solution of another. This hierarchical structure appears across machine learning, including hyperparameter optimization [43, 39, 36], meta-learning [20, 18, 45], inverse problems and optimal control [31, 1], reinforcement learning [25], domain adaptation [35], and instrumental variable regression [42, 50, 49]. In these applications, the outer parameter is typically updated using gradient-based methods, so the quality of the resulting bilevel gradient directly affects both optimization and statistical performance. Most existing theory for bilevel optimization has been developed in finite-dimensional parametric settings, often under strong convexity of the lower-level problem [21, 27, 29, 61]. This assumption gives a unique inner solution and makes implicit differentiation stable [43, 36]. It is also convenient for algorithmic convergence and stability analyses [9, 23, 40].


$ϕ$-Balancing for Mixture-of-Experts Training

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models rely on balanced expert utilization to fully realize their scalability. However, existing load-balancing methods are largely heuristic and operate on noisy mini-batch assignment statistics, introducing bias relative to population-level objectives. We propose $ϕ$-balancing, a principled framework that directly targets population-level expert balance by minimizing a strictly convex, symmetric, and differentiable potential of the expected routing distribution. Using convex duality, we derive an equivalent min-max formulation and obtain a simple online algorithm via mirror descent, yielding an efficient EMA-based routing adjustment with negligible overhead. Across large-scale pretraining and downstream fine-tuning, $ϕ$-balancing consistently outperforms prior Switch-style and loss-free baselines, demonstrating more stable and effective expert utilization.


Forecasting Multivariate Time Series under Predictive Heterogeneity: A Validation-Driven Clustering Framework

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study adaptive pooling under predictive heterogeneity in high-dimensional multivariate time series forecasting, where global models improve statistical efficiency but may fail to capture heterogeneous predictive structure, while naive specialization can induce negative transfer. We formulate adaptive pooling as a statistical decision problem and propose a validation-driven framework that determines when and how specialization should be applied. Rather than grouping series based on representation similarity, we define partitions through out-of-sample predictive performance, thereby aligning data organization with predictive risk, defined as expected out-of-sample loss and approximated via validation error. Cluster assignments are iteratively updated using validation losses for both point (Huber) and probabilistic (pinball) forecasting, improving robustness to heavy-tailed errors and local anomalies. To ensure reliability, we introduce a leakage-free fallback mechanism that reverts to a global model whenever specialization fails to improve validation performance, providing a safeguard against performance degradation under a strict training-validation-test protocol. Experiments on large-scale traffic datasets demonstrate consistent improvements over strong baselines while avoiding degradation when heterogeneity is weak. Overall, the proposed framework provides a principled and practically reliable approach to adaptive pooling in high-dimensional forecasting problems.


Diversity Is Not All You Need: Training A Robust Cooperative Agent Needs Specialist Partners

Neural Information Processing Systems

Partner diversity is known to be crucial for training a robust generalist cooperative agent. In this paper, we show that partner specialization, in addition to diversity, is crucial for the robustness of a downstream generalist agent. We propose a principled method for quantifying both the diversity and specialization of a partner population based on the concept of mutual information. Then, we observe that the recently proposed cross-play minimization (XP-min) technique produces diverse and specialized partners. However, the generated partners are overfit, reducing their usefulness as training partners. To address this, we propose simple methods, based on reinforcement learning and supervised learning, for extracting the diverse and specialized behaviors of XP-min generated partners but not their overfitness. We demonstrate empirically that the proposed method effectively removes overfitness, and extracted populations produce more robust generalist agents compared to the source XP-min populations.


Multilinear Mixture of Experts: Scalable Expert Specialization through Factorization

Neural Information Processing Systems

The Mixture of Experts (MoE) paradigm provides a powerful way to decompose dense layers into smaller, modular computations often more amenable to human interpretation, debugging, and editability. However, a major challenge lies in the computational cost of scaling the number of experts high enough to achieve fine-grained specialization. In this paper, we propose the Multilinear Mixture of Experts (μMoE) layer to address this, focusing on vision models.


A Noise Sensitivity Exponent Controls Large Statistical-to-Computational Gaps in Single- and Multi-Index Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Understanding when learning is statistically possible yet computationally hard is a central challenge in high-dimensional statistics. In this work, we investigate this question in the context of single- and multi-index models, classes of functions widely studied as benchmarks to probe the ability of machine learning methods to discover features in high-dimensional data. Our main contribution is to show that a Noise Sensitivity Exponent (NSE) - a simple quantity determined by the activation function - governs the existence and magnitude of statistical-to-computational gaps within a broad regime of these models. We first establish that, in single-index models with large additive noise, the onset of a computational bottleneck is fully characterized by the NSE. We then demonstrate that the same exponent controls a statistical-computational gap in the specialization transition of large separable multi-index models, where individual components become learnable. Finally, in hierarchical multi-index models, we show that the NSE governs the optimal computational rate in which different directions are sequentially learned. Taken together, our results identify the NSE as a unifying property linking noise robustness, computational hardness, and feature specialization in high-dimensional learning.