[Introduction to Special Issue] Prediction and its limits

A major challenge for using data to make predictions is distinguishing what is meaningful from noise. The image represents one approach that visually indicates the complexity of the problem by highlighting some links in a network and deleting other possible links, with the hole indicating the more meaningful information. We have tried to predict the future since ancient times when shamans looked for patterns in smoking entrails. As this special section explores, prediction is now a developing science. Essays probe such questions as how to allocate limited resources, whether a country will descend into conflict, and who will likely win an election or publish a high-impact paper, as well as looking at how standards should develop in this emerging field.