Discriminative State Space Models

We introduce and analyze Discriminative State-Space Models for forecasting nonstationary time series. We provide data-dependent generalization guarantees for learning these models based on the recently introduced notion of discrepancy. We provide an in-depth analysis of the complexity of such models. We also study the generalization guarantees for several structural risk minimization approaches to this problem and provide an efficient implementation for one of them which is based on a convex objective.