complexity
Will fusion power get cheap? Don't count on it.
Will fusion power get cheap? New research suggests that cost declines could be slow for the technology. Fusion power could provide a steady, zero-emissions source of electricity in the future--if companies can get plants built and running. But a new study suggests that even if that future arrives, it might not come cheap. Technologies tend to get less expensive over time. Lithium-ion batteries are now about 90% cheaper than they were in 2013.
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How we discovered the speed limit of arithmetic – and broke it
Some seemingly simple sequences of multiplication and addition grow so quickly that they question the very foundations of mathematics. Did you hear the one about the man who invented chess and got himself executed? Legend has it that a man called Sessa, who lived in India long ago, developed the rules for the game and presented them to a king. The king was delighted and offered the man his pick of reward. Sessa asked for a supposedly humble quantity of rice.
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Distributional Off-Policy Evaluation with Deep Quantile Process Regression
Kuang, Qi, Wang, Chao, Jiao, Yuling, Zhou, Fan
This paper investigates the off-policy evaluation (OPE) problem from a distributional perspective. Rather than focusing solely on the expectation of the total return, as in most existing OPE methods, we aim to estimate the entire return distribution. To this end, we introduce a quantile-based approach for OPE using deep quantile process regression, presenting a novel algorithm called Deep Quantile Process regression-based Off-Policy Evaluation (DQPOPE). We provide new theoretical insights into the deep quantile process regression technique, extending existing approaches that estimate discrete quantiles to estimate a continuous quantile function. A key contribution of our work is the rigorous sample complexity analysis for distributional OPE with deep neural networks, bridging theoretical analysis with practical algorithmic implementations. We show that DQPOPE achieves statistical advantages by estimating the full return distribution using the same sample size required to estimate a single policy value using conventional methods. Empirical studies further show that DQPOPE provides significantly more precise and robust policy value estimates than standard methods, thereby enhancing the practical applicability and effectiveness of distributional reinforcement learning approaches.
- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Reinforcement Learning (1.00)
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Machine Learning > Statistical Learning > Regression (0.34)
Symplectic Inductive Bias for Data-Driven Target Reachability in Hamiltonian Systems
Ouyang, Zhuo, Liu, Jixian, Mallada, Enrique
Inductive bias refers to restrictions on the hypothesis class that enable a learning method to generalize effectively from limited data. A canonical example in control is linearity, which underpins low sample-complexity guarantees for stabilization and optimal control. For general nonlinear dynamics, by contrast, guarantees often rely on smoothness assumptions (e.g., Lipschitz continuity) which, when combined with covering arguments, can lead to data requirements that grow exponentially with the ambient dimension. In this paper we argue that data-efficient nonlinear control demands exploiting inductive bias embedded in nature itself, namely, structure imposed by physical laws. Focusing on Hamiltonian systems, we leverage symplectic geometry and intrinsic recurrence on energy level sets to solve target reachability problems. Our approach combines the recurrence property with a recently proposed class of policies, called chain policies, which composes locally certified trajectory segments extracted from demonstrations to achieve target reachability. We provide sufficient conditions for reachability under this construction and show that the resulting data requirements depend on explicit geometric and recurrence properties of the Hamiltonian rather than the state dimension.
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PAC-Bayes Bounds for Gibbs Posteriors via Singular Learning Theory
We derive explicit non-asymptotic PAC-Bayes generalization bounds for Gibbs posteriors, that is, data-dependent distributions over model parameters obtained by exponentially tilting a prior with the empirical risk. Unlike classical worst-case complexity bounds based on uniform laws of large numbers, which require explicit control of the model space in terms of metric entropy (integrals), our analysis yields posterior-averaged risk bounds that can be applied to overparameterized models and adapt to the data structure and the intrinsic model complexity. The bound involves a marginal-type integral over the parameter space, which we analyze using tools from singular learning theory to obtain explicit and practically meaningful characterizations of the posterior risk. Applications to low-rank matrix completion and ReLU neural network regression and classification show that the resulting bounds are analytically tractable and substantially tighter than classical complexity-based bounds. Our results highlight the potential of PAC-Bayes analysis for precise finite-sample generalization guarantees in modern overparameterized and singular models.
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Sample Complexity Bounds for Stochastic Shortest Path with a Generative Model
Tarbouriech, Jean, Pirotta, Matteo, Valko, Michal, Lazaric, Alessandro
We study the sample complexity of learning an $ε$-optimal policy in the Stochastic Shortest Path (SSP) problem. We first derive sample complexity bounds when the learner has access to a generative model. We show that there exists a worst-case SSP instance with $S$ states, $A$ actions, minimum cost $c_{\min}$, and maximum expected cost of the optimal policy over all states $B_{\star}$, where any algorithm requires at least $Ω(SAB_{\star}^3/(c_{\min}ε^2))$ samples to return an $ε$-optimal policy with high probability. Surprisingly, this implies that whenever $c_{\min} = 0$ an SSP problem may not be learnable, thus revealing that learning in SSPs is strictly harder than in the finite-horizon and discounted settings. We complement this lower bound with an algorithm that matches it, up to logarithmic factors, in the general case, and an algorithm that matches it up to logarithmic factors even when $c_{\min} = 0$, but only under the condition that the optimal policy has a bounded hitting time to the goal state.
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Best of both worlds: Stochastic & adversarial best-arm identification
Abbasi-Yadkori, Yasin, Bartlett, Peter L., Gabillon, Victor, Malek, Alan, Valko, Michal
We study bandit best-arm identification with arbitrary and potentially adversarial rewards. A simple random uniform learner obtains the optimal rate of error in the adversarial scenario. However, this type of strategy is suboptimal when the rewards are sampled stochastically. Therefore, we ask: Can we design a learner that performs optimally in both the stochastic and adversarial problems while not being aware of the nature of the rewards? First, we show that designing such a learner is impossible in general. In particular, to be robust to adversarial rewards, we can only guarantee optimal rates of error on a subset of the stochastic problems. We give a lower bound that characterizes the optimal rate in stochastic problems if the strategy is constrained to be robust to adversarial rewards. Finally, we design a simple parameter-free algorithm and show that its probability of error matches (up to log factors) the lower bound in stochastic problems, and it is also robust to adversarial ones.
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Heat and Matérn Kernels on Matchings
Eremeev, Dmitry, Said, Salem, Borovitskiy, Viacheslav
Applying kernel methods to matchings is challenging due to their discrete, non-Euclidean nature. In this paper, we develop a principled framework for constructing geometric kernels that respect the natural geometry of the space of matchings. To this end, we first provide a complete characterization of stationary kernels, i.e. kernels that respect the inherent symmetries of this space. Because the class of stationary kernels is too broad, we specifically focus on the heat and Matérn kernel families, adding an appropriate inductive bias of smoothness to stationarity. While these families successfully extend widely popular Euclidean kernels to matchings, evaluating them naively incurs a prohibitive super-exponential computational cost. To overcome this difficulty, we introduce and analyze a novel, sub-exponential algorithm leveraging zonal polynomials for efficient kernel evaluation. Finally, motivated by the known bijective correspondence between matchings and phylogenetic trees-a crucial data modality in biology-we explore whether our framework can be seamlessly transferred to the space of trees, establishing novel negative results and identifying a significant open problem.
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Estimating Continuous Treatment Effects with Two-Stage Kernel Ridge Regression
We study the problem of estimating the effect function for a continuous treatment, which maps each treatment value to a population-averaged outcome. A central challenge in this setting is confounding: treatment assignment often depends on covariates, creating selection bias that makes direct regression of the response on treatment unreliable. To address this issue, we propose a two-stage kernel ridge regression method. In the first stage, we learn a model for the response as a function of both treatment and covariates; in the second stage, we use this model to construct pseudo-outcomes that correct for distribution shift, and then fit a second model to estimate the treatment effect. Although the response varies with both treatment and covariates, the induced effect function obtained by averaging over covariates is typically much simpler, and our estimator adapts to this structure. Furthermore, we introduce a fully data-driven model selection procedure that achieves provable adaptivity to both the unknown degree of overlap and the regularity (eigenvalue decay) of the underlying kernel.
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