Language Model Behavioral Phases are Consistent Across Architecture, Training Data, and Scale

Based on our analysis of over 1,400 language model checkpoints on over 110,000 tokens of English, we find that up to 98% of the variance in language model behavior at the word level can be explained by three simple heuristics: the unigram probability (frequency) of a given word, the n-gram probability of the word, and the semantic similarity between the word and its context. Furthermore, we see consistent behavioral phases in all language models, with their predicted probabilities for words overfitting to those words' n-gram probabilities for increasing n over the course of training. Taken together, these results suggest that learning in neural language models may follow a similar trajectory irrespective of model details.