A Appendix

Figure 4: Daily open prices for the four stocks considered in Section 2.2. The county-level demographic characteristics used for prediction were the proportion of the total population that fell into each of the following race categories (either alone or in combination): black or African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian or other Pacific islander. In addition to this, we also used the proportion of the total population that was male, of Hispanic origin, and that fell within each of the age ranges 20-29, 30-44, 45-64, and 65+. In total, matching covariate and election vote count data were obtained for 3111 counties. Algorithm 1 below outlines the core conformal inference method used to predict election results.