0d441de75945e5acbc865406fc9a2559-Supplemental.pdf

A.1 Connection to online learning In Section 2 we motivated the update (2) as a way to adjust the size of our prediction sets in response to the realized historical miscoverage frequency. Alternatively, one could also derive (2) as an online gradient descent algorithm with respect to the pinball loss. To be more precise let t:= sup{: Yt 2 Cˆt()}, where we remark that Cˆt( t) can be thought of as the smallest prediction set containing Yt. Because the pinball loss is convex, this gradient descent update falls within a well understood class of algorithms that have been extensively studied in the online learning literature (see e.g. Unfortunately, this notion of regret fails to capture our intuition that t is adaptively tracking the moving target .