The aggregation with exponential weights (AEW) estimator is not fully understood in the basic setting of model selection aggregation with squared loss. In particular, whether it is minimax-rate optimal in expectation for large enough fixed temperatures and under random design has been an open problem since its introduction, which was explicitly posed by Lecué and Mendelson (2013). In this paper, we settle this problem by showing that \emph{without} requiring a Bernstein-type assumption, the AEW indeed achieves the excess risk $T \log (M) / (n+1)$ in expectation, whenever the temperature $T$ satisfies $(L^2/T)\exp(B/T)\leq μ/2$. Here, the number of dictionary elements is $M$, the estimator has observed $n$ i.i.d. samples from any distribution, and the loss is assumed to be bounded by $B$, $L$-Lipschitz continuous and $μ$-strongly convex. For squared loss, we show that $T\geq 4 b^2$ suffices when the predictions and labels are $[0,b]$-valued. Because AEW is known to be suboptimal in expectation for temperatures below some constant, this shows that AEW has a sharp phase transition when the temperature is large enough but constant, as conjectured by Lecué and Mendelson.

Transformer-based large models have demonstrated remarkable generalization abilities across different tasks by leveraging a context-aware attention module for in-context learning. With richer context, transformers adapt more effectively to the current use case without any parameter updates. However, the quadratic computational and memory complexity with respect to context length significantly slows data processing in softmax transformers. Linear transformers were proposed to address this issue by reducing the complexity to linear dependence on context length, but the design and understanding of the feature mapping in linear attention, from a theoretical viewpoint, remain unclear. In this paper, we investigate the approximation and generalization abilities of linear transformers under a two-staged sampling process from domain generalization. We show that linear transformers perform in-context learning as learning a mapping from context distributions to response functions. A dimension-independent convergence rate is obtained for our generalization analysis, which also exhibits the tradeoff between the regularities of data distributions and latent features. Guided by our theoretical framework, we propose a new perspective on activation and loss design for linearizing pretrained softmax large language models.

Abstractitations, recent work explores online RLHF that iterates between generating on-policy responses and collecting preferences [Lee et al., 2024, Park et al., 2022]. Among online The Self-Improving Alignment (SAIL) algorithmapproaches, SAIL reduces a bilevel alignment formulation addresses distribution shift by reducing a bilevelto a computationally efficient single-level surrogate and formulation of the problem to an efficient, single-reports strong empirical gains [Ding et al., 2024]. Empirically, SAIL has demonstratedisting online pipelines are largely heuristic and do not anastrong performance on this task. However, a for-lytically control the distributional shift induced by iterative mal analysis of its convergence properties has beendata collection [Chakraborty et al., 2024, Shen et al., 2024], lacking. We identify a key theoretical challenge: which has been linked to suboptimal performance in practice the standard SAIL objective function is not guar- [Sharma et al., 2024]. To address this limita-A growing line of work argues that the coupling between tion, we propose a regularized objective, SAILreward learning and policy updates is fundamentally bilevel and should be modeled as such [Chakraborty et al., 2024].RevKL, which incorporates a reverse KullbackAs a follow-up, Ding et al. [2024] reduces the bilevel align-Leibler (KL) divergence penalty to improve the optimization landscape. Our central theoretical con-ment objective to a tractable single-level surrogate and retribution is to prove that this regularized objectiveports strong empirical gains, yet it lacks formal convergence satisfies the Polyak-Lojasiewicz (PL) conditionguarantees. Related theoretical analyses in bilevel/RLHFstyle problems exist [e.g., Yang et al., 2025, Chakrabortywithin a bounded parameter space. We establish et al., 2024, Gaur et al., 2025], yet they either focus onglobal convergence guarantees, achieving a nearlinear sample complexity.

Modern multivariate regression problems involve several related outcomes whose regression effects are not only nonlinear, heterogeneous, and outcome-specific, but also where the residual dependence among outcomes is scientifically meaningful. Existing multivariate Bayesian tree-based methods typically address only part of this problem: some impose substantial sharing of tree architecture across outcomes, which is overly restrictive when responses depend on distinct predictors or effect modifiers, while others accommodate residual dependence but retain simpler mean structures. This paper develops multiVCBART, a multivariate varying-coefficient Bayesian additive regression tree framework that jointly models flexible outcome-specific coefficient surfaces and a sparse residual precision matrix. Each entry of the coefficient matrix $B(x)$ is represented by an independent BART ensemble, allowing predictor effects to vary nonlinearly with modifiers $x$ across outcomes, while a Graphical Horseshoe prior on the precision matrix $Ω$ captures parsimonious residual conditional dependence. To permit efficient computation, we introduce a sampler that reduces the multivariate Gaussian likelihood to a sequence of scalar pseudo-response updates, decoupling the tree backfitting from the Graphical Horseshoe step. Theoretically, we establish the first posterior contraction rates for a multivariate BART model with jointly estimated residual dependence, proving near-minimax adaptation to underlying smoothness and structural sparsity. Empirically, multiVCBART outperforms existing multivariate tree models and Bayesian SUR competitors on sparse, high-dimensional datasets. Finally, in a re-analysis of the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer dataset, our method identifies distinct biomarker signals and recovers a coherent residual pharmacologic network.

When two or more parameters or labels produce similar data, they are degenerate, or hard to distinguish. Degeneracies render both label prediction and inverse problems difficult, since both machine learning algorithms and probabilistic samplers rely on the distinguishability of data and its gradients with respect to parameters. However, identifying degeneracies in physical models or real-world datasets can be elucidating about the choice of model or the underlying process that produces the data. We present the degeneracy distillery, a method that (1) detects and (2) resolves degenerate parameter combinations (a) automatically and (b) symbolically, from parameter-data (or parameter-simulation) pairs alone, through estimation and flattening of the Fisher information matrix. By exploring the information geometry of the likelihood, we characterize degeneracies as an intrinsic property of the physical model, requiring no realised data observation. We demonstrate our approach on a range of synthetic and real-world problems, discovering symbolic coordinate transformations that identify the combinations of parameters of a model which yield independent effects on the data. The resulting coordinates flatten the Fisher information in expectation globally, in contrast to posterior-based methods that flatten only at a single point, and substantially reduce the simulation budget required for downstream neural posterior estimation. In test cases we require up to $10\times$ fewer simulations for posterior estimation at matched validation calibration whilst simultaneously gaining physical insight on the system.

Attention mechanisms have demonstrated remarkable empirical success in identifying relevant information from large collections of tokens, yet the theoretical principles underlying this behavior remain poorly understood. We study a stylized softmax-attention model in which a query vector is learned by stochastic gradient ascent from a collection of informative and nuisance tokens. Exploiting the symmetry of the model, we derive a population objective and characterize the limiting ordinary differential equation governing the learning dynamics. Using tools from stochastic approximation and dynamical systems theory, we establish a rigorous connection between the stochastic learning algorithm and its deterministic limit. Our main result shows that, under suitable high-dimensional scaling assumptions and standard step-size conditions, the learned query converges almost surely to the one-dimensional signal subspace spanned by the latent informative direction. Equivalently, the query asymptotically recovers the latent signal up to the intrinsic sign ambiguity. These results provide a rigorous theoretical foundation for understanding attention mechanisms as signal extraction procedures in high-dimensional noisy environments and offer a dynamical-systems perspective on how attention discovers relevant information in the presence of substantial noise.

Many domain experts do not have the time or expertise to write formal Bayesian models. This paper takes an informal problem description as input, and combines a large language model and a probabilistic programming language to define a joint distribution over formal models, latent variables, and data. A posterior over latent variables follows by conditioning on observed data and integrating over formal models. This presents a challenging inference problem. We suggest an inference recipe that amounts to generating many formal models from the large language model, performing approximate inference on each, and then doing a weighted average. This is justified and analyzed as a combination of self-normalized importance sampling, MCMC, and importance-weighted variational inference. Experimentally, this produces sensible predictions from only data and an informal problem description, without the need to specify a formal model.

As machine learning increasingly relies on large, opaque foundation models powering generative and agentic AI, deploying these systems in safety-critical contexts demands rigorous generalization guarantees beyond training data. PAC-Bayes theory provides principled certificates linking training performance to generalization risk, yet existing approaches remain impractical: simple theoretical priors yield vacuous bounds, while data-dependent priors require costly second-stage training or introduce bias. To bridge this critical gap, we propose a localized PAC-Bayes prior--a structured, computationally efficient prior softly concentrated around parameters favored during standard training. By integrating this localized prior directly into the standard training objective, we deliver practically tight generalization certificates with minimal workflow disruption. Under standard neural tangent kernel assumptions, our bound shrinks as networks widen and datasets grow, becoming negligible in realistic regimes. Empirically, we demonstrate tight generalization certificates on tasks ranging from image classification (MNIST, CIFAR, ImageNet) and NLP fine-tuning (GLUE) to semantic segmentation (Cityscapes), typically within three percentage points of test error at ImageNet scale. Additionally, our approach provides rigorous guarantees for individual predictions, selective rejection of uncertain predictions, adversarial robustness, and accurate calibration--directly addressing key requirements for trustworthy AI deployment.

We provide the first proof of convergence for normalized error feedback algorithms across a wide range of machine learning problems. Despite their popularity and efficiency in training deep neural networks, traditional analyses of error feedback algorithms rely on the smoothness assumption that does not capture the properties of objective functions in these problems. Rather, these problems have recently been shown to satisfy generalized smoothness assumptions, and the theoretical understanding of error feedback algorithms under these assumptions remains largely unexplored. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, all existing analyses under generalized smoothness either i) focus on single-node settings or ii) make unrealistically strong assumptions for distributed settings, such as requiring data heterogeneity, and almost surely bounded stochastic gradient noise variance. In this paper, we propose distributed error feedback algorithms that utilize normalization to achieve the O(1/ K)convergence rate for nonconvex problems under generalized smoothness. Our analyses apply for distributed settings without data heterogeneity conditions, and enable stepsize tuning that is independent of problem parameters. Additionally, we provide strong convergence guarantees of normalized error feedback algorithms for stochastic settings. Finally, we show that due to their larger allowable stepsizes, our new normalized error feedback algorithms outperform their non-normalized counterparts on various tasks, including the minimization of polynomial functions, logistic regression, and ResNet-20 training.

Pre-trained encoders for offline feature extraction followed by multiple instance learning (MIL) aggregators have become the dominant paradigm in computational pathology (CPath), benefiting cancer diagnosis and prognosis. However, performance limitations arise from the absence of encoder fine-tuning for downstream tasks and disjoint optimization with MIL. While slide-level supervised end-to-end (E2E) learning is an intuitive solution to this issue, it faces challenges such as high computational demands and suboptimal results. These limitations motivate us to revisit E2E learning. We argue that prior work neglects inherent E2E optimization challenges, leading to performance disparities compared to traditional two-stage methods. In this paper, we pioneer the elucidation of optimization challenge caused by sparse-attention MIL and propose a novel MIL called ABMILX.