High-dimensional Filtering using Nested Sequential Monte Carlo

Inference in complex and high-dimensional statistical models is a very challenging problem that is ubiquitous in applications such as climate informatics [Monteleoni et al., 2013], bioinformatics [Cohen, 2004] and machine learning [Wainwright and Jordan, 2008], to mention a few. We are interested in sequential Bayesian inference in settings where we have a sequence of posterior distributions that we need to compute. To be specific, we are focusing on settings where the model (or state variable) is high-dimensional, but where there are local dependencies. One example of the type of models we consider are the so-called spatiotemporal models [Wikle, 2015, Cressie and Wikle, 2011, Rue and Held, 2005]. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful methodologies for sequential Bayesian inference. However, SMC struggles in high dimensions and these methods are rarely used for dimensions, say, higher than ten [Rebeschini and van Handel, 2015].